tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post7057780914941449333..comments2023-09-15T04:27:57.129-04:00Comments on Commentarama: My Big Fat Greek MeltdownAndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comBlogger78125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-85717574038662670242012-05-22T22:28:47.576-04:002012-05-22T22:28:47.576-04:00People mention the possibility of war: if this pro...People mention the possibility of war: if this provokes a little thought, is it possible that the financial meltdowns could accelerate our going to war with Iran?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-34356157344483241442012-05-22T10:50:31.341-04:002012-05-22T10:50:31.341-04:00Greece is the word rlaWTX!Greece is the word rlaWTX!AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-12407067252554326412012-05-22T10:48:52.758-04:002012-05-22T10:48:52.758-04:00I'm gonna go with... It's all Greek to me!...I'm gonna go with... It's all Greek to me!rlaWTXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09319344164726195144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-36594571656047917192012-05-22T00:56:55.756-04:002012-05-22T00:56:55.756-04:00I don't know what night school you all went to...I don't know what night school you all went to, but that was nothing like what I experienced. It was very pleasant and I remember it fondly, no matter what those malcontent classmates with their joint lawsuits might allege. (The ball gags didn't even taste that bad, for Pete's sake....)T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-70644606727443821912012-05-22T00:50:44.596-04:002012-05-22T00:50:44.596-04:00tryanmax, That's because we all went to night-...tryanmax, That's because we all went to night-school and majored in Euro-nalysis. :)<br /><br />Basically, the instructor makes you pee away your prosperity into small cups so they can test it and throw it away.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-39220048926652558502012-05-22T00:10:14.422-04:002012-05-22T00:10:14.422-04:00I've just been following the convo silently. I...I've just been following the convo silently. I no is smart like yous guys. Very insightful.tryanmaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09881154741574720094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-34428578852118870742012-05-21T22:27:01.102-04:002012-05-21T22:27:01.102-04:00My ears are burning....My ears are burning....Tunisia, c. January 2011noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-62473054178940692172012-05-21T21:20:00.824-04:002012-05-21T21:20:00.824-04:00Indi, Isn't that the truth! How many really B...Indi, Isn't that the truth! How many really BIG things have started very small?AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-68247506266656004422012-05-21T20:57:48.106-04:002012-05-21T20:57:48.106-04:00Andrew and T-Rav
The Golden Dawn take over Greece...Andrew and T-Rav<br /><br />The Golden Dawn take over Greece, they immediately begin exiling Turks and end up in a war with Turkey......<br /><br />Small thing really but it could have big implications.....<br /><br />Never underestimate the Human Capacity to FUBAR small things into big onesIndividualisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11005025873042230314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-77477195070904232952012-05-21T19:17:20.921-04:002012-05-21T19:17:20.921-04:00T-Rav, That's true. The real risk isn't G...T-Rav, That's true. The real risk isn't Greece, it's the domino effect of the other countries. If Greece falls apart, Spain is primed to as well, so is Italy. And if they go down, France would probably be next. And once things like this begin, there's no telling what could happen or where events might end.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-15734443290138547822012-05-21T19:12:25.570-04:002012-05-21T19:12:25.570-04:00LL, I think one of the growing wrinkles in all of ...LL, I think one of the growing wrinkles in all of this is that the impression that Greece will be returning to the drachma is becoming locked in--that is, people are starting to make their decisions with that as a core assumption. If this particular feature continues, the bank runs will go on and the Greek economy will hemorrhage money at an increasingly alarming rate, until the nation has to get off the euro just to stay solvent. That's something else it has to avoid.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-47980130360909507182012-05-21T19:07:44.726-04:002012-05-21T19:07:44.726-04:00Andrew and Indi, I agree that there really isn'...Andrew and Indi, I agree that there really isn't that much to fear for the rest of us from whatever happens in Greece. With this caveat: it's not the only place having or about to have a debt crisis. If more powerful countries, namely Spain and/or Italy, have a Greece-style meltdown, things could get dicey, especially since both have a--<i>complicated</i> political history, to put it politely.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-51374388592977715172012-05-21T18:19:43.581-04:002012-05-21T18:19:43.581-04:00LL, I would be trying to get all my money into Eur...LL, I would be trying to get all my money into Euros too -- and maybe a German bank. That way you're safe no matter what happens in Greece. If they leave the Euro and devalue the Drachma, then you can buy back in at a great price. If they manage to stay in the Euro, then nothing happens. So it makes sense to get your money out of Greece asap.<br /><br />And unfortunately, that's exactly the kind of thing Greece needs to avoid if they want to have any chance of getting through this.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-9354103959492116712012-05-21T18:13:15.078-04:002012-05-21T18:13:15.078-04:00The problem today in Greece - and it's likely ...The problem today in Greece - and it's likely to continue, is that there are runs on the banks with people withdrawing Euro as if there is no tomorrow. One way to put a stop to it is to change the currency to relatively worthless Drachma. <br /><br />No matter what, for quite some time there will be a black market economy with Euro as the currency. Two prices at the store. One for customers paying drachma and the other for customers paying with Euro (or dollars, or Swiss Francs).LLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05538854359365988863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-53648070689358902442012-05-21T18:01:50.235-04:002012-05-21T18:01:50.235-04:00Indi, Humans are big on repeating history. We see...Indi, Humans are big on repeating history. We seem to treat that like sport... like Russian Roulette.<br /><br />But in this case, I'm not worried about a European-wide war because there aren't really two sides. There is Greece trying to get out of its debt and everyone else wishing they just went away. And Greece lacks the military power of a Germany even circa-Weimar Republic because Greece is just too small to threaten anyone.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-90884401537134052792012-05-21T17:57:35.529-04:002012-05-21T17:57:35.529-04:00T-Rav
Very informative article. My worry is this...T-Rav<br /><br />Very informative article. My worry is this....<br /><br />Did not a debt crisis in Eurpoe lead to WW2.<br /><br />Oh how we never learn form history.Individualisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11005025873042230314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-46581050266387027682012-05-21T17:56:15.631-04:002012-05-21T17:56:15.631-04:00T-Rav, There's nothing wrong with the Wikipedi...T-Rav, There's nothing wrong with the Wikipedia so long as you know which kinds of information you can't trust. It's actually a heck of a lot better than encyclopedias ever were.<br /><br /><br />It will be interesting to see what happens in Greece. A civil war is certainly not out of the question, though it won't do them any good really. My guess is that they are more likely to end up ungovernable for about a decade. And if Europe isn't careful, they're going to have Greek terrorists blowing up German banks in revenge.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-35309548893899616882012-05-21T17:50:42.893-04:002012-05-21T17:50:42.893-04:00Andrew, yeah, I won't lie, I cribbed some of t...Andrew, yeah, I won't lie, I cribbed some of this from Wikipedia. <br /><br />Those tax hikes you mention would come on top of some draconian revenue-raisers already implemented as part of the austerity measures. If that happens, the centrist parties' support would disappear and throw the government into the hands of the Left coalition. And at that point, we're probably looking at some amped-up internal disorder, if not outright civil war. <br /><br />As you allude to, though, this is all dependent on what the IMF and other institutions do.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-72374231354592295472012-05-21T17:08:53.141-04:002012-05-21T17:08:53.141-04:00T-Rav, I can't see a full-on default either. ...T-Rav, I can't see a full-on default either. I could see a partial default though where they take it out on some of the big banks that are holding their sovereign debt. Frankly, I could even see the IMF still floating more loans at the same time... kind of a shell game.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-29435303806608197282012-05-21T16:53:20.922-04:002012-05-21T16:53:20.922-04:00Most likely, the Greek government will not declare...Most likely, the Greek government will not declare a total default, because that would completely screw them over for the foreseeable future. Other countries and foreign investors can't make them pay their debt off--they are, after all, a (sort of) sovereign state--but they would certainly cut off all credit to Greece for the foreseeable future, and maybe seize some of its overseas assets. In general, confidence in the government, domestically as well as internationally, would collapse. For those reasons, a total default is unlikely. <br /><br />More likely is a partial or "orderly" default, which some economic experts have been advocating. That would be Greece paying off only a portion of its debt, mainly to earlier creditors such as the IMF, and simultaneously going back to its old currency. The only problem with this scenario is that the major European banks would take a serious hit as a result, which could have all sorts of knock-on effects with investors. Either way, it's kind of a crapshoot.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-34161865145759211012012-05-21T16:51:39.562-04:002012-05-21T16:51:39.562-04:00T-Rav, According to the Wikipedia, which has no re...T-Rav, According to the Wikipedia, which has no reason to lie me, their deficit is 9.1% of their <i>economy</i> -- about 19 billion euros. That means if they defaulted, they would need to raise taxes by 10% of their economy just to afford what they spend right now. In American terms, that would be like a tax hike of about $1.5 trillion.<br /><br />And that is before any other considerations like the displacement effect of those tax hikes or of all the people who lose their jobs bringing imports to the country.<br /><br />The bailout money is going to guarantee private debt, which they are using to finance that deficit and keep rolling over their debt which has become due.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-35704004494572951262012-05-21T16:44:27.633-04:002012-05-21T16:44:27.633-04:00Andrew and Koshcat, that's one of the question...Andrew and Koshcat, that's one of the questions I'm trying to research. It's difficult, because as I said, I don't think anyone really knows the answer to this, and frankly I struggle with economic jargon. But, as things stand right now, most of the bailout money Greece is currently receiving is going to pay off private creditors, at home and abroad (but mostly abroad). That's leaving most of the existing debt as is, which Greek taxpayers will have to pay off themselves. I don't think that would change in case of a default, whether they can declare one or not.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-49120862437218062272012-05-21T16:38:32.076-04:002012-05-21T16:38:32.076-04:00Mmmmm, inflationary donuts.Mmmmm, inflationary donuts.Economist Simpsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-75215765320337306352012-05-21T16:32:40.847-04:002012-05-21T16:32:40.847-04:00Mmmmmm.....doughnuts.....Mmmmmm.....doughnuts.....Homer Simpsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-63481471750928370182012-05-21T16:21:36.061-04:002012-05-21T16:21:36.061-04:00What's the point of having cake if you can'...What's the point of having cake if you can't eat it?<br /><br />mmmmmmm....cakeKoshcatnoreply@blogger.com