tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post8148006707804104779..comments2023-09-15T04:27:57.129-04:00Comments on Commentarama: Analyzing The Shutdown DealAndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-54171537864961368842011-04-13T15:11:08.177-04:002011-04-13T15:11:08.177-04:00JG, Thanks! And you're welcome. I think you&...JG, Thanks! And you're welcome. I think you're right on all counts. It's a lot easier to be contrarian because no one can prove you wrong because they would need to disprove a negative. It also generally makes you stand out from the crowd and is an easy way for people to appear "smart" because they can tell everyone how much smarter they are than the people who were actually involved, and no one can prove them wrong.<br /><br />It's also very safe at the moment to be opposed to this because that's where the whiners are right now..... the whiners are going to be a problem, by the way, because they fall for theater and empty gestures and they don't have a clue how to achieve substantive changes.<br /><br />Bachmann really disappointed me on this. Her first statements were very positive about the deal. But then one of the Tea Party "leaders" criticized her for not criticizing the deal. Suddenly, she's running around telling everyone who would listen that this is the worst deal since Czechoslovakia 1938. That's the definition of pandering and I find that disturbing in politicians.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-39886537595894231392011-04-13T14:54:06.349-04:002011-04-13T14:54:06.349-04:00Thanks, Andrew. You always line things out in a wa...Thanks, Andrew. You always line things out in a way I can grasp. Of course, being contrary garners more attention, usually. And right now, it's the popular line, so you don't risk being "outcast" by being critical. And yeah, you could probably always "do better," but until they find a perfect politician, that's going to be the state of the world. Count your winnings and use it as motivation to move forward, I say, rather than undercutting any progress made just because it's not they way YOU would have done it. *cough*MichelleBachmann*cough*JGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03116405895683599572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-26589390200558534752011-04-13T14:27:45.459-04:002011-04-13T14:27:45.459-04:00JG, Let me add... I've done dozens and dozens ...JG, Let me add... I've done dozens and dozens of negotiations as an attorney. I understand what it takes to be successful at negotiations and I understand the limits on what you can get in a negotiation, no matter how strong your case or how aggressive you are about it.<br /><br />But it never failed that someone would come along and tell the client, "that doesn't sound like a great deal, I could have done better." And never once did these idiots have any idea what they were talking about. They <i>always</i> assumed that it was just a matter of raising your demand high enough and then saying "take it or leave it." But of course that doesn't work. As simple proof of that matter, I would ask, "if the other side did that to you, would that make you give up? No? Ok, then why do you think it will work on them?"<br /><br />The point is that people who don't know what they are talking about are usually the ones screaming the loudest about how easy it should have been to do something. That's what you have here. And now these same pundits are trying to jin up justifications to support their position and they're using bad analogies, bad statistics and outright lies to do it. That's the problem with the modern chattering classes -- the only thing they care about is being louder than everyone else, because that gets them ratings/attention.<br /><br />And unfortunately, several politicians on our side pander to this.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-80130343564655739482011-04-13T14:18:41.445-04:002011-04-13T14:18:41.445-04:00JG, No, that's not a legitimate criticism.
Fi...JG, No, that's not a legitimate criticism.<br /><br />First, the budget gets spent at different parts of the year. Checks aren't sent out all on one day. So picking any particular date and comparing the spending on that date against budget cuts is deceptive because there will be other days where there is no spending whatsoever. This is an attempt to make the spending cuts look smaller than they really are by implying that this is what Congress regularly spends.<br /><br />Think of it like a diet. This is the equivalent of people saying "gee, you claim you're on a diet, but you're still eating. Why don't you stop eating until you've cut out all the calories you want to cut out this year." It's stupid and it misunderstands how budgets work.<br /><br />Secondly, this doesn't address what the spending is. If the spending is necessary, like payment of interest on debt or entitlements, then it's entirely unfair to compare that spending to cuts in <i>discretionary</i> spending -- which is what the budget deal was. And for the record, most of the spending on any particular day (about 84% is entitlements). So what they're doing is comparing required spending against cuts in discretionary spending, which is like comparing apples and oranges.<br /><br />Third, none of this matters because it's the 2012 budget that matters. This is just an attempt to squeeze a few savings out of a budget that was long since put into place. In fact, if the Republicans hadn't tried this, these same idiotic critics wouldn't have complained at all. They are only upset because they wanted the round figure of $100 and they didn't get it (interestingly, few of them even realize the cuts are $78.5 billion, they are still calling it $38.5 billion because that sounds better in their rants).<br /><br />Finally, let's be clear, the critics are throwing an arm-chair tantrum. They are sitting around with no knowledge of what happened in the negotiations, no responsibility to the party, the country or the voters, and they are playing the "I would have done better" game, which is a sucker game. These are the same people who will tell you how they would have tossed a football to a different player to win a game, when they've never even worn a helmet in their lives, they have no ability to throw, and they couldn't even see that the other guy was covered. It's very easy to tell everyone how you would have done better when you don't have to deal with real fact, real people and real responsibilities, and when you can rely on fantasy statements like "if I'd proposed bigger cuts, everyone would have gone along with me." Uh huh.<br /><br />Sadly, this self-aggrandizing temper tantrum they are throwing will make it all the harder for the Republicans to get a good deal in the future because it makes us look un-unified, which will give the Democrats strength and turn off the independents.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-3104240940504227622011-04-13T13:43:52.952-04:002011-04-13T13:43:52.952-04:00So, not to keep beating this horse, but I've b...So, not to keep beating this horse, but I've been seeing this rolling around the ethernet: the cuts in the CR are being label as tokenism because Congress approved almost twice as much ($80B) in spending earlier that week. Is that a legitimate criticism?JGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03116405895683599572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-32697487920677044652011-04-11T23:40:59.470-04:002011-04-11T23:40:59.470-04:00DUQ, Some people make their money by being loud an...DUQ, Some people make their money by being loud and obnoxious and playing the knee-jerk reaction. It's a lot easier than thinking things through and it sells a lot easier than the much more difficult effort of doing an honest assessment.<br /><br />By the same token, they will blow things way out of proportion just to have something to whine about.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-87253247165945623572011-04-11T22:22:45.212-04:002011-04-11T22:22:45.212-04:00I was disappointed when I heard the number, so I&#...I was disappointed when I heard the number, so I'm glad you sorted this out. I wish more of the talk radio guys would look at these things honestly. They're all just screaming and nothing they say actually makes any sense.DUQnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-18662393754004996212011-04-11T19:02:43.070-04:002011-04-11T19:02:43.070-04:00Patti, You're welcome! This is definitely not...Patti, You're welcome! This is definitely not an easy issue and it doesn't give that visceral satisfaction, but <i>so far</i> this is a good first step. As me again in 2012 how they're doing after the fight over Ryan's budget!<br /><br />Tanks for the link.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-65545592688811079222011-04-11T19:01:28.407-04:002011-04-11T19:01:28.407-04:00Thanks Ed. I think people are still very upset at...Thanks Ed. I think people are still very upset at the whole system, left and right. And there is considerable justification.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-87107136610845339052011-04-11T18:29:23.924-04:002011-04-11T18:29:23.924-04:00andrew: i've had such a headache all weekend a...andrew: i've had such a headache all weekend and i've got to say i'm barely coming out of it, BUTT ( a really big but!) this helps. so much so, i'll link ya.<br /><br />thanks for the analysis. well done, brother.Notawonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15388997298014397980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-31684710514096856132011-04-11T18:17:21.849-04:002011-04-11T18:17:21.849-04:00Nice analysis! I'm seeing too many people out ...Nice analysis! I'm seeing too many people out there just ranting away about how much they hate this deal and the more they talk, the more obvious it gets they don't know what they're talking about. It's too bad that so many people even on the right now just whine about everything. That used to be for the left only.Ednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-90693189097483524442011-04-11T16:09:59.248-04:002011-04-11T16:09:59.248-04:00T_Rav, Good point. I try to block those films out...T_Rav, Good point. I try to block those films out of my thinking, but now that you mention it. . . the Democratic donkey does look suspiciously like Jar-Jar-Binks! :-)AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-75917220638734843532011-04-11T16:08:51.346-04:002011-04-11T16:08:51.346-04:00Stan, It is impulsive! LOL! Can you just imagine ...Stan, It is impulsive! LOL! Can you just imagine if 10% of tourists started showing up with buckets of water? I wonder what their security would do? Ban water in the Capitol Building? That would be great -- they could call it "the Pelosi Rule"!AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-45486418642871983472011-04-11T16:05:20.927-04:002011-04-11T16:05:20.927-04:00Andrew, how about "the wisdom of George Lucas...Andrew, how about "the wisdom of George Lucas circa 1999-2005"? 'Cause even young Luke had his virtues.T_Ravnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-25802354190649184142011-04-11T16:04:18.907-04:002011-04-11T16:04:18.907-04:00I know! …that’s what I think when I see her, it’s ...I know! …that’s what I think when I see her, it’s impulsive.StanHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07395708786509590321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-20544092438516589752011-04-11T15:25:25.394-04:002011-04-11T15:25:25.394-04:00Bev, Thinking about it, I'm surprised that mor...Bev, Thinking about it, I'm surprised that more tourists don't try that. I could see Pelosi constantly being hit with buckets of water everywhere she goes in fact?!AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-49374052455726099662011-04-11T14:47:24.090-04:002011-04-11T14:47:24.090-04:00Boehner could have just settled for Reid throwing ...Boehner could have just settled for Reid throwing a bucket of water on her and she would have just melted into the floor...BevfromNYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14953050916932306270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-60189380717172202202011-04-11T13:28:42.722-04:002011-04-11T13:28:42.722-04:00Bev, The original offer was that Reid would agree ...Bev, The original offer was that Reid would agree to stab Nancy Pelosi on the House floor, ala Julius Caesar. . . but the Republicans rejected that and told Reid he had to come up with something better. ;-)AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-12806367205654196652011-04-11T13:17:04.160-04:002011-04-11T13:17:04.160-04:00I wonder what the Dems gave up for Boehner to semi...I wonder what the Dems gave up for Boehner to semi-cave on cutting Planned Parenthood and NPR et al.? Any ideas? I read a report that the Dems agreed to other cuts to keep them for now...BevfromNYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14953050916932306270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-52566601211278446542011-04-11T12:44:27.226-04:002011-04-11T12:44:27.226-04:00Lawhawk, Agreed. I think the conservatives have t...Lawhawk, Agreed. I think the conservatives have the momentum and they are driving this debate now. And the Ryan plan is the goal. I know we won't get all of it in 2012, but I'm hoping we start to get some significant parts, and then in 2013, I hope we get the whole things with clear majorities in both Houses and a Republican President.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-31814264594113372262011-04-11T12:36:03.865-04:002011-04-11T12:36:03.865-04:00Andrew: Excellent analysis. Now we have the real b...Andrew: Excellent analysis. Now we have the real battle to look forward to. But I think the Republicans, particularly the conservative wing, have put both Democrats and RINOs on notice that the Ryan plan is on the table, and they have to propose something to counter it, not just attack it. We have the momentum, now I just hope we can keep it. This is a fight for America's economic survival, and we can't go weak-kneed now.LawHawkRFDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17800255923675295515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-85179240146456866832011-04-11T11:54:05.129-04:002011-04-11T11:54:05.129-04:00T_Rav and Bev, The thing about negotiations is tha...T_Rav and Bev, The thing about negotiations is that you always have to consider that things may not work out like you expect. Reid and the ObamaCrats got hints that things weren't going according to plan last month when the polls showed an even split on blame. They assumed the public would be 80-90% against the Republicans because of 1994. They were shocked to find the public wasn't entirely on their side (shocked enough to whine to the papers).<br /><br />I think the Wisconsin thing was serious confirmation of that because if they can't win on their strongest issue in a state Obama carried by something like 59%, then they really are in a weak position. That's why I think they cut the deal.<br /><br /><br />T-Rav, The Democrats do not have the wisdom of Obi Wan. They have the wisdom of young Luke Skywalker. They also a view of governing with Darth Vader, and when it comes to the military they rely upon the courage of C-3PO.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-76978325205622180872011-04-11T11:46:55.540-04:002011-04-11T11:46:55.540-04:00Jed, That's been a weakness of our side for ye...Jed, That's been a weakness of our side for years -- we don't soundbite well.<br /><br />Part of that is lack of knowledge on the parts of many Republicans. Part of it is that Republicans tend to try to be truthful and highly accurate in their arguments, as compared to Democrats who go for emotion and flash.<br /><br />The Republicans really should create a school to teach basic policy, basic economics, basic math, and basic PR to all elected Republicans.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-19809711615566997702011-04-11T11:38:26.332-04:002011-04-11T11:38:26.332-04:00Kosh, snicker. If only the Democrats were as wise ...Kosh, snicker. If only the Democrats were as wise as Ben Kenobi.<br /><br />Bev, I totally agree with your point about Wisconsin. I think the Dems realized they might not have public opinion as completely locked up on this issue as they thought they did, and that may have helped prompt them to cave in. Who'da thunk it?T_Ravnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-40111780434981457282011-04-11T11:36:08.213-04:002011-04-11T11:36:08.213-04:00One other thing the right must be careful about. W...One other thing the right must be careful about. We know that B.O. is going to propose tax increases on the wealthy. That, unfortunately, is a pitch that helps energize the Democratic base. What I am saying is, our guys need some good soundbites that help put the lie to tax increases. They have to be 1) brief 2) logical 3) catchy. I can usually win such an argument, but admit I have a hard time doing it in a way that doesn't make people's eyes glaze over.Tennessee Jedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10604275115906776992noreply@blogger.com