tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post2356600041869528422..comments2023-09-15T04:27:57.129-04:00Comments on Commentarama: How To Understand The PublicAndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-12591320863806843412010-07-03T01:22:35.928-04:002010-07-03T01:22:35.928-04:00Mega, I saw that article. It was pretty interesti...Mega, I saw that article. It was pretty interesting. I'm thinking about writing a post about it. There has been a lot of evidence in the past decade that much of what we think we think is actually a response to subconscious stimuli.<br /><br />What was most interesting was the part where they discussed how subliminal advertising doesn't really work, but what you see can actually be much more dangerous because it's triggering these subconscious impulses. Interesting times huh?AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-28629338836864516992010-07-03T01:17:18.657-04:002010-07-03T01:17:18.657-04:00Cool article. I think you're right about look...Cool article. I think you're right about looking for what people really think in how they behave. There was an interesting article on Yahoo today about how subconscious ideas actually change out behavior without us knowing it.MegaTrollhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03234420338804013858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-19162906152071081512010-07-02T16:18:53.738-04:002010-07-02T16:18:53.738-04:00Thanks Doc. I can't explain the problems with...Thanks Doc. I can't explain the problems with Blogger, but I do know that some people do have problems. Some people can't sign in, others can't stay signed in. It's not a great system.<br /><br />We also have comments disappear for a while -- though they've always come back. And strange things will happen that we can't explain with posts at times.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-76043024232686140682010-07-02T15:33:38.832-04:002010-07-02T15:33:38.832-04:00Great article! Thanks Andrew. By the way, I can&...Great article! Thanks Andrew. By the way, I can't sign in so I can't get my picture to show. I don't know why.DocWhoanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-22712210806493719372010-07-01T19:13:48.215-04:002010-07-01T19:13:48.215-04:00DUQ, Welcome and thanks for commenting! Hopefully...DUQ, Welcome and thanks for commenting! Hopefully the article has helped everyone see new ways to understand the public and given them a reason to be leery of polls that seem to go against common sense and what they observe throughout the country.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-87815606877687835742010-07-01T19:12:20.103-04:002010-07-01T19:12:20.103-04:00Jed, Absolutely. Polls have become a tool for pus...Jed, Absolutely. Polls have become a tool for pushing a narrative. In fact, I was reading earlier how the Kos polls actually changed the flow of money and volunteers in California and Arkansas. So these things aren't harmless, and people know this -- so they use them. And journalists have definitely learned to use these to push an agenda.<br /><br />You're also right that people respond to polls with what they think people want to hear, rather than what they really believe. And the evidence for that is all around us.<br /><br />And I think it's very insightful to connect that with voters being swayed by the wrong things, and with the liberal control of the media. As long as the media defines how you "should" act, then people will continue to report those kinds of opinions, even if they don't actually follow through with them. That leads to bad policy and the appearance of support for things that shouldn't be supported. And sadly, peer pressure is a powerful force with people. So if everyone says X, even if they don't believe it, then X can take on a life of it's own just based on peer pressure.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-45638524475075201372010-07-01T19:05:22.175-04:002010-07-01T19:05:22.175-04:00Ed, I'm glad it gave you something to think ab...Ed, I'm glad it gave you something to think about! That's our goal here. Hopefully, this will help you see things in new ways.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-34403544922003725402010-07-01T16:05:38.127-04:002010-07-01T16:05:38.127-04:00Hi,
I just came across your site last week and ha...Hi,<br /><br />I just came across your site last week and have been really enjoying it. I'm definitely going to be more careful about what poll numbers I trust in the future.<br /><br />DDUQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08746724287720239837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-18442969514424286512010-07-01T14:43:06.963-04:002010-07-01T14:43:06.963-04:00I think I have long realized a couple of the most ...I think I have long realized a couple of the most salient points from your excellent post. 1) Polling is used as a political weapon. The so called "push poll" is particularly favored by the main stream media. They basically have an agenda or story to tell and want to report on those things that support the story. Sometimes, even they realize it is too hard to fake and to do so would harm their veneer of so called "impartiality." Thus, if a Republican is in office and something bad happens, the polls are out almost daily. When it happens to a Democrat . . voila; less polls.<br /><br />The second point you mentioned is how people say what they think they "should" say rather than what they think. Just as with net flicks, this is sort of the derivation of the term "guilty pleasure." But it is why we worry about who is winning or losing the media wars. Many educated people have mixed feelings about letting everyone vote, myself included. We guage people below 18 as not mature enough to vote. We consider driving a priviledge, not a right. And yet, we require nothing of our citizenry to vote other than to register and even that is too much for many of our citizens. Fortunately, most of them don't usually vote, but we worry about those who can be swayed by bullshit polls and speeches.Tennessee Jedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10604275115906776992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-15970043079516917342010-07-01T14:16:34.857-04:002010-07-01T14:16:34.857-04:00Great article. I see all these things, but never ...Great article. I see all these things, but never put them together. From now on, I'm going to start looking a little closer! I swear I learn something here every day!Ednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-57570500935316153402010-07-01T13:51:37.739-04:002010-07-01T13:51:37.739-04:00Thanks Bev! I'm glad you liked it.
And thank...Thanks Bev! I'm glad you liked it.<br /><br />And thanks for sacrificing your mental health! :-)<br /><br />What you mention is another problem with polling. What does the 85% really mean? Do they want a shift to the right? To the left? Are they thinking of something different, i.e. not-political, like you were?<br /><br />Those are the hazards of polling and, more importantly, the hazards of believing in polls.<br /><br />For example, "do you oppose ObamaCare" is the same thing. Different people will oppose it for different and often contradictory reasons. So a generic number without more doesn't tell us anything. Similarly, to get real meaning, you need to ask "how does this affect your vote" and even then it's very easy to say "I'll never vote for them again" without really following through.<br /><br />That's why it's so much more informative to watch how people actually respond to events than it is to listen to what they say.<br /><br />That's also why Kos was stupid to rely so heavily on their unique polls as the basis for their analysis. As a supplement, sure, it's useful. But to rely as heavily as they do is simply poor reasoning.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-5510112599271640772010-07-01T13:29:08.104-04:002010-07-01T13:29:08.104-04:00It is my pleasure to sacrifice my mental health fo...It is my pleasure to sacrifice my mental health for "the cause" by keeping tabs at HuffPo.<br /><br />Great article - The Clintons were masters at internal polling and trial balloons. The first "poll as news" I remember was the now famous Time Magazine poll question in 2003 or 2004 <i>"Do you think the country is going in the right direction</i>" - <br />85% of respondents said "NO". <br />Time Mag concluded that no one liked the direction to mean that BUSH was taking the country. This number was used over and over by every news organization as an indictment of the Bush adminstration. <br />I was surprised by that because I actually took the poll and voted "NO", but I interpreted "right direction" to mean "socially in the right direction", not politically. I don't think I am the only one.<br /><br />Time got the outcome they wanted to get (85% against), but the poll was so broad that it could be and was interpreted to mean whatever the poll taker wanted it to mean. All it meant was that there were 85% that were disgruntled about something...BevfromNYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14953050916932306270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-57167608642886295642010-07-01T12:58:27.974-04:002010-07-01T12:58:27.974-04:00Patti, It absolutely does.
Also, what you mention...Patti, It absolutely does.<br /><br />Also, what you mention today at your <a href="http://www.notawonk.com/2010/07/shot-has-been-sounded.html" rel="nofollow">website</a> is another good example of what's really going on -- with the Republicans standing up for an actual repeal of ObamaCare.<br /><br />That tells us that they know the public is ready for a repeal. Whether this knowledge comes from internal polling or volume of mail or simply the overwhelming town hall experience, that we don't know. But we do know that the stridency of their position tells us that they believe the public is with them.<br /><br />Add in all the other evidence, and that becomes a pretty good bet.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-59683962135620980802010-07-01T12:44:01.179-04:002010-07-01T12:44:01.179-04:00andrew: i agree, when folks offer their opinions o...andrew: i agree, when folks offer their opinions openly to total strangers, something serious is afoot. my libbie friend experience is that those who voted for this disaster are now silent and some have taken to outright hiding. it speaks volumes. oh, their shame.pattihttp://www.notawonk.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-12360960284134822082010-07-01T11:51:49.429-04:002010-07-01T11:51:49.429-04:00I can't help but laugh at the fact that one le...I can't help but laugh at the fact that one leftist hero hasn't paid his bills and the other leftist is a fraud, and now they're going to war. . . like all leftists always do with each other.<br /><br />It's like 1939 all over again, only on a smaller scale! :-)AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-64383124016626771282010-07-01T11:38:01.240-04:002010-07-01T11:38:01.240-04:00Andrew: I can't help but see a tiny compariso...Andrew: I can't help but see a tiny comparison with the Afghan warlords. They often appear to be on the same side, but they'll stab each other in the back at the first opportunity. Just like the Huff Po and the Daily Kos.LawHawkRFDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17800255923675295515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-23111573833516654112010-07-01T11:31:59.651-04:002010-07-01T11:31:59.651-04:00Lawhawk, I also am still getting a real kick out o...Lawhawk, I also am still getting a real kick out of what Bev said yesterday about the Huffpo people being beside themselves over this. . . though I don't have the stomach to go check it out. I'm glad we have Bev to report though!AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-38220478080563635992010-07-01T11:29:35.212-04:002010-07-01T11:29:35.212-04:00Lawhawk, Thanks. I agree about Kos. I can't ...Lawhawk, Thanks. I agree about Kos. I can't wait to see what happens next, especially now that Kos has let slip that he hasn't paid the bill he owed to Research 2000.<br /><br />How funny would this be if the whole problem was that Kos is going broke?<br /><br />I also can't wait to hear what Research 2000's other clients do now. There are several newspapers and several campaigns that hired Research 2000, and they need to be thinking about taking action as well.<br /><br />Not that it matters because Ali apparently has no money -- there are several judgments against him from local grocery stores (Giant and Shoppers -- good donuts).<br /><br />In any event, it's going to be a lot of fun to watch this explode and get bigger and bigger. Especially since Kos has been the driving force on the left for some time now. . . and everything they said was garbage! :-)AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-60565403293639056812010-07-01T11:03:24.739-04:002010-07-01T11:03:24.739-04:00Patti, That's a pretty good measure so long as...Patti, That's a pretty good measure so long as you keep track of how the public mood changes. For example, around here (a conservative area) people are nearly in open revolt. That tells us something about voter intensity.<br /><br />At the same time, in a liberal area where I've spent time, people aren't talking, and all the Obama bumper stickers have vanished -- which again tells us something about voter intensity.<br /><br />These are all good signs you can read.<br /><br />And when it gets to the point that people are talking about something in public at a meat counter, then you know it's struck a chord.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-77862292215295761802010-07-01T11:00:13.019-04:002010-07-01T11:00:13.019-04:00Andrew: In the spirit of schadenfreude, I enjoyed...Andrew: In the spirit of <i>schadenfreude</i>, I enjoyed the Daily Kos "embarrassment" enough to expand on the subject in this afternoon's post. Your post does a much better job of looking at the significance of all polling (or insignificance, in some cases). Why people take polls as gospel when they're so often wildly divergent and just plain wrong is beyond me. But I think your comparison to NetFlix customers is probably right on the money. The most I can say of polls, is the better ones seem to be able to catch trends, and occasionally get very close to the final results.LawHawkRFDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17800255923675295515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-28953079442103919772010-07-01T10:55:41.978-04:002010-07-01T10:55:41.978-04:00here's my never-failed-me-yet method for under...here's my never-failed-me-yet method for understanding the public: i go to a grocery store, stand around the meat/produce/wine section and listen. sometimes i might say something like, "hey, how's it going?" and listen as the public rips. my unscientific polling tells me where john q stands, and right now, he's pissed at washington. overwhelmingly.pattihttp://www.notawonk.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-65111120905484001562010-07-01T10:54:06.071-04:002010-07-01T10:54:06.071-04:00Crispy, According to Kos, they've been asking ...Crispy, According to Kos, they've been asking for the raw data and they've been getting all kinds of excuses. One of the excuses was that their computers were down that day and they had to work out of a Kinkos instead of their regular office.<br /><br />What makes this even more interesting, is that Research 2000 had a lot of clients, including some campaigns. But the guy was a deadbeat -- there are several judgments against him from local stores including two grocery stories. BUT, Kos admits that he didn't pay his bill either.<br /><br />So who knows what's really going on here? But whatever it is, it looks like two liberals are busy taking each other down! Can't say that bothers me.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-65037468117394160402010-07-01T10:40:08.164-04:002010-07-01T10:40:08.164-04:00By the way, I’ve been watching the DailyKos stuff ...By the way, I’ve been watching the DailyKos stuff and I think it’s hilarious. I read that Kos is trying to get the raw data from their polls but they won’t turn it over. At one point they even claimed their computers were down so they couldn’t turn anything over because they were working out of a Kinkos. I wouldn’t buy that excuse.CrispyRicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07302075204880024936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-32074993420507040432010-07-01T10:25:26.241-04:002010-07-01T10:25:26.241-04:00Stan, That's exactly true on both counts.
On ...Stan, That's exactly true on both counts.<br /><br />On the one hand, the politicians do extremely good polling (usually combined with focus group work) and they will let slip what is really going on with their actions -- look at how their ads change and the issues they talk about and those they don't.<br /><br />And you're right about journalists using polls to make news. It's very easy to commission polls and then use those to tell everyone what they should believe because "everyone else believes it." In some cases, they even use these silly non-scientific polls as news. Those things are completely worthless.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4425587034622601550.post-61120924739179259212010-07-01T10:22:02.623-04:002010-07-01T10:22:02.623-04:00On the film thing, it was combined with a survey b...On the film thing, it was combined with a survey by NetFlix that people were returning the videos unwatched, so it wasn't just that they held those long, but also that they weren't watching them. To me, that's a pretty good indication of an intent to see the "good" stuff, with a lack of follow through. You get similar data from responses to polls about eating healthy, giving to charity, etc. -- all the things "we're supposed to do."<br /><br />From that, I infer that people are giving in to social pressure that tells them what they "should be doing", but that they lack the follow through. But that they also will report on polls and the such that they actually do follow through. So my point is that this data presents a disconnect between what we claim to believe and our behavior.<br /><br />Could it mean something else? Sure, that's the difficulty with this kind of analysis. But if you look for patterns and verification in other areas, then you can put together a pretty good picture of humans.<br /><br />As for the polls on ObamaCare, that's all about how they ask the question and the answers allowed. It also matters who they sample. For example, if they chose people who were "mildly opposed" before, they might now not care since it's no longer at the top of their minds. But those people probably aren't going to vote in November either. That's why I say you need to look at behavior. Have people stopped talking about it? No. Are the Republicans getting a bigger spine about repeals? Yes. Have the Dem's dropped their campaign that Republicans want to repeal it? Yes. That tells us that nothing has changed.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.com