● Tally Me Banana: The most reliable predictor of a president’s chance of getting re-elected is real take- home pay, i.e. how much Americans earn after taxes and inflation. This is the statistic behind Reagan’s famous question: “are you better off today than you were four years ago?” According to a Vanderbilt University study based on elections between 1948 and 2000, a president needs at least 1% growth in the election year to be favored for re-election. So far this year, take-home pay has actually fallen -0.2% in January and -0.1% in February. Based on these numbers, Vanderbilt professor Larry Bartels says Obama is likely to get 45% of the vote. . . which just happens to coincide with Obama’s approval rating.
● Running On Empty: Under Jimmy “Malaise” Carter, the price of gas increased 103.77%. People went insane and Carter was tossed out on his rear. How does Obama compare? Gas prices have risen 103.79%. . . slightly worse than under Carter.
And here’s an interesting aside. It turns out that 65% of hybrid owner go back to regular cars with their next car. So if hybrids can’t sustain their popularity with the people most likely to buy one, then it’s hard to see how Obama’s anti-gas push won’t hurt him.
● Burning Down The House: After never actually recovering, the housing market has started slipping again. The left is stumped. They really thought that this time would be different from each of the prior “recoveries” in the housing market. This is a killer for Obama because most Americans use their homes as their retirement savings.
● Get A Job: Yeah, that whole jobs recovery thing didn’t happen either. After a brief uptick, things are looking bleak again. The economy added only 120,000 jobs in March even though it needs 360,000 just to stay level with population growth. Right now the real unemployment rate is estimated to be 18% (almost one in five).
● Party All the Time: As America enters its fifth year of belt-tightening, GSA (the General Services Administration) is showing the public that government employees continue to live high on the hog. In the past couple weeks, we’ve seen a lavish $822,751 GSA party in Vegas disguised as a “regional training event” (complete with taxpayer-funded clown and mind reader), and videos of GSA employees playing around instead of working. What’s worse, however, has been the response. Team Obama tried to blame Bush for this, which went down about as well as blaming original sin. Moreover, government apologists whine that these are “first-class public servants and patriotic Americans” and it’s unfair to criticize them! Talk about being out of touch!
Now we’ve learned that the government is handing out “incentives” like ipads and laptops to these hard(ly) working (un)patriotic Americans. Again, this is supposedly Bush’s fault.
● Taxman: The latest Obama attack on Romney is that he only wants to be president so he can cut his own taxes. If that’s the best Team Obama has, they should start moving now.
● History Repeating?: Interestingly, Obama said yesterday that this election provides the clearest contrast since the 1964 election between Barry Goldwater and LBJ. Hmm. Carter-Reagan beg to differ, but let’s consider the parallels:
In 1964, LBJ tried to destroy the United States by imposing the Ingrate Society. Obama tried to do the same with his Crony Society and ObamaCare. In 1964, Johnson set us up to lose the Vietnam War. Obama is doing the same throughout the Middle East. In 1964, race was a flashpoint throughout the country. Now, Obama/Holder are trying to generate a race riot. In 1964, LBJ used one of the most despicable ads of all time -- the daisy ad, which suggested Goldwater wanted to start a nuclear war. Now, the Democrats and Obama are whining about a Republican war on old people and women and blacks. LBJ was a corrupt bastard. Well, shuck my grits, so is Obama! In 1964, the federal government tried to stop illegal voting practices which kept blacks form voting. Now, Obama is letting the Black Panthers intimidate voters and is whining about voter-ID laws being a return to Jim Crow.
In any event, there is method in this racist’s madness. Obama is invoking 1964 and not FDR because 1964 has been associated with the Voting Rights Act. Basically, this is an attempt to fire up his black base without alerting whites to what he is doing. And speaking of his black base. . .
● Black or White?: Although the MSM has been quick to hide Obama’s name now in connection with the Trayvon Martin scandal, it seems to be coming up a lot. And where it comes up the most is in questions about why Obama doesn’t seem to care about white people? After commenting about Trayvon, he failed to condemn the Black Panther bounty on Zimmerman. Then he failed to address several other black-on-white hate crimes. Now he’s ignored the beating of a 27-year-old white man in Gainesville by a group of 5-8 blacks who jumped the man and shouted “Trayvon” before the attack began. Even the Gainesville P.D. has declared the crime “racially motivated.” Yet, Obama has not called for calm or demanded that people not seek racist revenge for Trayvon. . . as he did when Islamic terrorist Hassan shot several American soldiers. In fact, the only time crimes, wars, terrorist acts or natural disasters seem to move him are when blacks are the victims. Hmm.
I think the left is realizing this is a problem because the MSM has all but cut off Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, they’ve downplayed all other race-crimes, and they are trying to redefine the Trayvon shooting as something other than racially motivated. The new arguments are that it was the result of gun ownership or “vigilante culture” in movies. Of course, here are two facts to blow holes in that garbage: (1) there are 250,000,000 handguns in the US, but only 12,000 shootings a year, thus guns are not a motivator of any sort. (2) Almost every American has seen the films The Washington Post blamed for causing this “vigilante culture,” and yet Zimmerman was the only one to “get it” and become a vigilante? Thinking never was a liberal strong suit.
So there you have it, more woe for Team Obama. He is a sad clown now.
136 comments:
what makes the study all the more interesting is Vanderbilt usually does left leaning studies. In other words, ... no bias here :) I predict gas will probably peak in the summer and start to come back down; maybe home heating oil will make a difference in the northern swing states. It is important for Republicans to blast the phony math used to make it look like the economy is improving. I continue to hope that any gains made among blacks with the "race baiting" campaign turns off even more democratic soccar moms. Why is Ricky being such a sore loser. If I was Mitt I'd basically ignore him from here on out .
Andrew,
Great news. One addendum: LBJ was a school teacher. So was Obama.
Well, uh, let me be clear--the young men who allegedly assaulted that individual were, uh, motivated by racial justice, and, er, if I had a son....Republicans don't like minorities!
“If” the RNC runs right at Barry, he’s beaten in a landslide. If they mollycoddle him, we still win but by a narrow margin.
Anecdote from Rush yesterday: The only thing I can tell you, Ken, is that Romney came by here in January. I think it was the 13th, the middle of the month. And I met with him after the show. It was about 4:30. I met with him for almost an hour, and he left here for a huge fundraiser a mile down the road, mile and a half. And during that conversation -- I've mentioned this to you -- he said to me that he wouldn't be surprised if he ended up being a one-term president because he's got to shake things up. This country can't go the direction it's going or his children and grandchildren and nobody else's will have a future. When he was talking about that, he sounds just like you and me.
He sounds just like you and me when we talk about it. He was very affirmative in his acknowledgement to me of the threats posed by Obama and the Democrats to this country. If you had been in that conversation, you would not have doubted his conservatism at that moment. But then you would read where he has said in years past, "Look, I'm not a conservative. I'm not one of these," and you'd scratch your head. I'm not saying it wiped any of those other instances out. I'm just telling you that that day, he sounded like me. He was fairly echoing the fears I have about what's in store for this country if the Democrats are not stopped. This transformation, this belief that our founding was unjust and immoral and we've had a fraudulent country for 200-plus years.
Along with his 08 concession speech, I'm encouraged.
Question: When did Romney state that he isn't a conservative? I've been Googling the $#!+ out of that since yesterday and I've come up goose eggs.
StanH,
Doesn't that sound a little like Reagan. In 1976, Ford and Reagan were going at it. Ford won. Reagan gave a great speech and Ford went on to lose to Carter. Reagan came back in 1980 to win. Jump forward to 2008.
McCain and Romney were going at it. McCain won. Romney gave a great speech and McCain went on to lose to Obama. Now Romney is back in 2012. Interesting parallel, hunh?
Romney said he was a moderate on abortion.
Thank you, Joel. It's as I suspected. Saying one is x on issue n is a far sight different than saying one is y on all issues.
And let's not forget, Obama's economic "plan," such as it is, is to institute the Buffett Rule--which a study just announced would affect only the 400 wealthiest households, if that, and raise about $4 billion a year in revenue, which is about what the government spends in a day.
The astonishing thing is that 45% of voters still approve of this @#$%ing idiot.
tryanmax,
I suspect that Romney got the RINO tag because of being elected in Massachusetts. That and RomneyCare. I know it is a canary compared to C-5 Galaxy cargo plane that is ObamaCare, but you can make a canary look bigger than an C-5.
FYI- Yesterday, the GSA cancelled their next "convention" in Las Vegas that was supposed to be at the end of the month...
facts is facts, and i love these, but i hesitate to dance my "barry's booted out" jig yet. it's only going to get hairier as the months progress. let's pray there's no dropping the ball on our part.
Jed, I haven't heard what Ricky did now?
I think you're right about gas, it will go up through the summer along with food prices and electricity (air conditioning). Then people will get the home heating bills just in time for the election. All of this will hurt Obama a LOT.
Joel, That's interesting. So LBJ never held a real job either?
Another aside - In the ongoing smear against Alan West, it was reported that he "heard" there were at least 80 House Democrats who are are Communist Party members. Now what's interesting is that the original article in the Palm Beach Post does not use any quote of West saying this. They just put "heard" in quotes. Hmmmmm. Wonder why? Of course there is no video proof either...
Barack, Thanks for the input, jerk. That's pretty much exactly what I expected from you.
The entire Obama administration is about the glorification of American decline and the joy of "equality of people and nations." Carter bemoaned the "great malaise" and tried (but failed utterly) to do anything about it. On the other hand, Obama thinks decline (malaise?) is a good thing, and is doing a great job of insuring it.
As for Romney having said he was a "moderate" on abortion, I think he was probably referring to the fact that he is actually somewhere in the middle of the vast majority of Americans who would restrict early (very early) abortion to cases of rape, incest and the physical survival of the mother. He was also making a point that he was in favor of convincing people of the evils of abortion on demand rather than attempting to ban it entirely by government decree. I also think that he has gone from being tepid about government funding of abortion to being totally opposed to it.
Stan, It sounds like Rush is getting ready to embrace Romney.
Unlike Rush, I haven't had private conversations with Romney, but I can tell you as someone whose job it is to parse the meaning of words, I am very much encouraged by everything I've heard him say in the past several months. He is speaking in conservative principles (something I've found to be very rare in politics). In other words, his instincts have been conservative whenever he's been called upon to answer a question. He's not just spitting out bumper-sticker conservatism or things his advisors have prepped him for, he is actually using conservative principle to formulate his answers. That is very, very hard to fake. So I think people will be very much surprised by him as President that he is much more conservative than people think.
I just hope all of this lovely news doesn't peak too soon - or that the MSM doesn't get the public inured to it so that the continuing negatives are ignored. Unfortunately, I'm with Patti on delaying the happy dance.
It's gonna be a looooong year.
Andrew, you are obviously a racist, close-minded conservative, which is why you don't appreciate the greatness of The One Who Leads Us.
tryanmax, I'm not sure. There is a lot of anti-Romney myth out there on the right. Particularly when you get to the issue of judges and abortion, that's when a lot of guesses based upon guesses based upon rumors come to light.
I've never heard Romney say he's not a conservative, but it's possible.... and that's the realm in which rumors live.
rlaWTX, The problem here isn't even the news factor, the problem is the pocketbook factor. People feel this in their own lives because their paychecks are shrinking, their costs of food and gas are rising, and their savings are gone.
That said, I agree, I wouldn't do the happy dance yet either, but it's very much looking like we will get to do the happy dance in November.
Hey, Race-Baiters, can you give me the German for "The One Who Leads Us"?
T-Rav, that was an EXCELLENT response!!!
Incidentally, in other Obama news, you know how we were all evil and insensitive for making fun of Michelle's "Let's Move!" thing about exercise and all that, because it was just something she was doing on her own hook? Well, at least in the case of the National Park Service, compliance with the program is now one of the criteria for getting government contracts. And they say nepotism is a problem....
rla, glad you liked it! ;-)
Joel, Here's the thing about Reagan. Everyone wants to claim Reagan and remake him as something he was not. When he ran in 1976 and 1980, he was not what would be considered "a true conservative" today. He was not Religious Right. He was not libertarian. He was not cranky. He was not a neo-con. He was a man who grasped the common sense position that smaller government is better. But he wasn't rigidly ideological about any of it. He also had a flipflop on abortion and never saw it as the big issue. He was divorced. He had governed a liberal state. He represented a union. He had appointed bad judges and good judges. He'd raised and lowered taxes in his home state. He talked about, but had no intention of cutting agencies.
In short, he was a lot like Romney (though I'm not comparing the two) and he would have been dismissed today as a RINOs.
But what he had, which too many people would be blind to today, is he had solid conservative instincts along with a desire to get as much done as possible. And it served him really well.
Joel and tryanmax, That doesn't surprise me, especially since (1) he was and (2) he was running in Mass, where calling yourself a conservative is not a great idea. But he, if he said those words then he must be forever tarred and we should ban him from the cult.
T-Rav, 45% is about the bottom limit on either side. It would take something like molesting a child on stage before the candidate for either side falls below that number.
Also, don't forget, the left (around 40%) believes government is about punishing those who have... not about helping those who need. So promising to hurt those people will play well with the left.
Also, many on the right won't really care about those people in any event, so this won't be as offensive a policy as you might think. But it also won't do anything to help his re-election.
Andrew: I would only add that Reagan (and I think Romney) had an absolute faith in the greatness of America and an ever-positive attitude toward America's unique ability to move upwards. "Malaise" or "decline" would simply never have occurred to him. Unlike Obama, he would never even consider, let alone espouse, Hegelian/Marxist inevitability of the decline of the free enterprise, capitalist system. Though it may sound trite (and was used to describe other lesser figures), Reagan was the consummate "happy warrior."
Joel, I think that's right. The problem is this. For the "purists" among us (who often can't actually define conservatism), it is an offense to do anything liberals like. They want Republicans in liberal states like Mass to fight to the death and never do anything to maintain their purity. Of course, then they get written off by these same armchair politicians as losers because they get tossed out by the voters. It's a fools errand to try to please those people.
And to tell you how stupid it is, I've heard these same people attack Paul Ryan because his budgets included RINO spending, Bobby Jindal for various things he's done including accepting subsidies, and Marco Rubio for vaguely selling out. . . somehow.
This is armchair quarterbacking of the worst, most idiot sort.
Bev, The horror! Think of all those suddenly untrained GSA types? And the poor unemployed clowns and mind readers? Now I'm sad. :(
By the way, when I worked for Club Fed and we switched over to MS Word, I was forcibly sent on a FOUR DAY TRAINING COURSE to learn how to use a word processor which the rest of the world (myself included) had been using for years.
Patti, I agree, never count your chickens until they are hatched, but the evidence is just building up that Obama is in huge trouble on every front. Like you, I will wait tensely for him to get tossed, but I have faith that he will get tossed. :)
Bev, First, I frankly wouldn't be surprised if 80 Democrats were members of the communist party -- not in the least. I could probably name half of them.
That said, I can't image West saying that and certainly not without proof. So this does sound like yet another smear. It's amazing how quickly the MSM will report rumors/smears they want to believe and then will run with it. . . and how hard they struggle not to report things that hurt Democrats.
I'm still not sure who they are trying to push Romney toward, but they clearly don't want him picking Haley, West or Rubio.
Andrew, Drudge is now reporting that the GSA employees even got bonuses for attending these parties. Unbelievable!
Lawhawk, You put your finger on something very interesting. Carter struggled against the malaise but didn't know how to fix it. (Reagan did.) Still, despite his failures, he clearly wanted the nation to get stronger.
Obama seems content to ride the malaise. He seems happy with a humble, insecure, unhappy, second-rate country. He really does think that makes America "safer."
Fortunately, voters are not going to accept that. They want that fixed. To the average American, America is still the greatest nation on Earth and it always should be. So Obama's policies run directly counter to what the public wants. And that's why he can't get above 50% since the first few weeks of his administration.
Dear Race-Baiters, Not so, I'm not criticizing Obama at all! He's been the ideal advertisement for conservatism. As a conservative Trojan Horse for our side, he got us a conservative Congress. Next election he will give us the Senate and then take a well deserved retirement.
He's been like Frank Sinatra in "The Buckley Candidate."
// thumbs up!
T-Rav, I believe that would be Fuhrer-vergnugen.
Andrew: I trump your sad clown Obama with a Royal flush: ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CBS, NPR.
Ryan 2016.
rlaWTX, That's why keep T-Rav around! ;)
T-Rav, I have to admit I didn't follow that much. So you're saying that forced voluntary exercise is now a requirement to win a government contract? Excuse me for a moment...
//ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Hmm. That's interesting. Idiotic, but interesting. I guess companies will now need to adopt a recess policy? Add some swings to the parking lot?
Lawhawk, That's true. Both Reagan and Romney believe in America itself and the underlying greatness of our people and our system. They both seem to understand that if the American people are left to achieve on their own, they will achieve greatness. It's only when the government "tries to help" that things go wrong.
That's why I find it amazing that some of the supposedly-conservative candidates were so intent of creating new government programs. That's not the answer. The answer is less government, more America.
Also, optimism is the key to electoral success and Romney has it -- Obama doesn't.
Doc, Why not hand out bonuses? Everybody wants bonuses. And when money is no object, you might as well spread it around among your friends. It's not like the money comes from anywhere. . . like hardworking taxpayers.
K, The luster is off that royal flush, as 80% of the public no longer trusts the media. And no amount of MSM propaganda can fix the reality that people feel like they are going backward financially. That's the killer here.
Andrew, you'll never catch me comparing Romney to Reagan, but I did have to laugh a week or two ago when I was listening to some talk radio. The GOP race was being discussed, I don't remember on what specifically, but a guy called in and said that the candidates needed to be true conservatives like Reagan.
Host: "Okay, so how do they do that?"
Caller: "Don't compromise. Reagan never did!"
Host: "Really? Reagan never once deviated from any conservative principle?"
Caller: "No! Never!"
Host: "So when he allowed the passing of budgets that ran up huge deficits, was that him not compromising?"
Caller: "Well--yes, but he didn't sacrifice his principles...."
And so on. (thump)
HuffPo has video of West making the communist claim: LINK
Still, it's only a gaffe if it's not true. Rather than mocking West out of hand, the media should be trying to dig up Communist Party membership rolls.
It should also be pointed out that there is no "heard" about nothin'. West flat-out makes the claim. Why would the media soften it like that?
T-Rav, Don't get me wrong, I'm not comparing Romney to Reagan as such. I'm just saying that:
1. If Reagan came along today, the response of many on the right would be very nasty because they have misinterpreted him.
2. Romney has some similar traits as Reagan which will do him very well and I think will make him turn out to be a solidly conservative president. I don't think he has the same depth of conservative principle Reagan did, i.e. I think he has conservative principles, but they aren't as well-formed as Reagan. Thus, Romney still has to think about things, whereas Reagan already had thought about them.
3. Reagan had a real gift for communication. Romney doesn't. Romney has improved a lot, but he still comes across as cold or sterile. Reagan, on the other hand, was very comforting. I don't Romney will ever be that.
So they are rather different. But there are important similarities.
tryanmax,
Yep. He did say it. No take backs. I think the media doesn't want him to name names. Or to point out communists, but seeks to lump him in with McCarthy.
tryanmax, Interesting. First, let me say that this video doesn't actually bother me.
This sounds like a fun room. And West is not making a McCarthy-like attack. Indeed, this is not Allen West suggesting a commie-hunt and that people be driven out of government. He is simply responding to the question -- how many Democrats do you think have Marxist beliefs. And I take his response as an accurate answer to the question, and an acceptance that they is what they are without any sort of harangue.
He probably should not have said it, but frankly, I don't care. If the Democrats don't want to be considered Marxist, maybe they shouldn't support Marxist ideas???
Joel, I have no problems naming names. Let's start with:
Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Stark, Dennis Kucinich...
And then there's this: A list of 70 Democrats who the Socialist Party of America claims are their members:
Whoops
... assuming that's real.
I don't care that West said it either. I think it's true.
Andrew, I think you are right about the pay-check effect stuff. My only concern is what happens if the numbers turn around suddenly?
Andrew,
Here is one, Damned Witch Schultz.
The whole idea with the 80 communists roaming around Congress meme is to brand West with the McCarthy smear in order smell him up a bit. The miscalculation is that it is true and most of the voters know it. I don't think West is worried about it, because none of them are Republicans and have that much power.
Joel, I'm already seeing "HUAC" bandied about the blogosphere.
Ed, I'm not worried about things turning around because the economy doesn't move that quickly and right now all the numbers are in retreat. So it will take quite an economic miracle for things to turn around.
Things will get better over the summer because they always do, but that's seasonal hiring and by September, things will be flat or negative again.
I'd like an opinion on Zimmerman's council withdrawing. According to their press conference, they withdrew because he didn't return their calls on Sunday. That seems incredibly odd.
Joel, I think this is an impossible thing to smear West with.
For one thing, after Obamacare, I suspect most people will think it is true. For another, this isn't the sort of thing which resonates. It just sounds like the normal partisan rhetoric you hear these days -- war on this, war on that, fascist, communist. Yawn. For another, I think the Democrats don't want to debate this issue because it gets right back to their weakness -- economic insanity.
It would resonate if West was calling for investigations, but since he seems to blow it off, no one will worry about this.
tryanmax, I expect a full-court press in the blogosphere about McCarty. But in the end. . . yawn. This is like when conservatives get upset because Obama misquotes the Bible or the Constitution. The public really doesn't care about minutia.
tryanmax,
On HUAC, I think that is wishful thinking. The net result will be West getting necessary exposure to the electorate. The more people hear this man, the more they want him by their side.
tryanmax, My guess is that his attorneys (1) haven't been paid (he apparently has no money) and (2) are finding the publicity unpleasant -- probably getting death threats. So they have decided to get off now.
I know the media is playing it like "they must know he's guilty and they want to get away now," but that's not anything that would make a criminal attorney get off a case. Almost all clients are guilty.
It's possible that he was asking them to let him lie, but that seems to be ruled out with them saying they haven't spoken to him.
So I think it's just a money thing.
Joel, True. If this had been McCain, then they could get away with that. He would panic and go into Elmer Fudd mode trying to prove he's no Joe McCarthy and then would beg for mercy while throwing all his allies under the bus.
West won't do that. West will laugh this off or counter-attack. West is the new breed of combative conservative we need.
McCarthyism
I have no idea what is wrong with me.
awesome pic, tryanmax!!!
tryanmax, Let me be the first to say. . . uh? LOL!
I think half of the conservative blogosphere has claimed for ages that the Congress is full of socialists. Half of the lefties have been claiming to be socialists for years. The step from socialist to communist is one of degrees. So, what's wrong with that statement exactly?
rlaWTX, That's exactly how I expect most people will respond. Conservatives will say: "uh, we know they're communists... heck, they brag about being socialists!"
The left will act outraged, but who cares.
And people in the middle will say either: (1) who's Allen West? or (2) How is this different than all the other rhetoric both sides use each day?
In the end, the left will whip themselves into a hypocritical fervor and no one else will care. And what we should do, is laugh and point out: "Communism/socialism is akin to Nazism so I can see why you all would want to be associated with socialism."
uh-uh! Nazis are right-wingers, and socialists are on the left! Everybody knows that!!
Boy are you an idiot, Normal! You should try using the gray matter between your ears. It's not just there to cushion your skull.
But that's what my teacher told me! And my college professors, and my mamma! They wouldn't lie to me!
Would they?
No Normal, they wouldn't lie to you, they would just tell you whatever untruths they felt they needed to say to make you believe what they wanted you to believe. And you bought it hook, line and sinker. Congrats. You're a credit to your ideology.
Allen West has now said he was referring to the Congressional Progressive Caucus. . . which makes sense as they are dirty communists.
Of course, the official communist party is upset that they have been slandered by being associated with Democrats (I kid you not).
LOL!!!
Andrew, I see at also that several black websites are doing the usual -- calling him Uncle Tom and other racist attacks.
Oh! There's the gaffe. There are only 76 members of that caucus. West is trying to inflate their numbers, the dirty liar.
Oh, and whip themselves up they will! It's a feeding frenzy on HuffPo. But I have to say that the edit of the video they used is worthy of any recently fired anoymous NBC producer.
I love that the commies are offended be being lumped with dems! too funny! You can't make this crap up!
Terry, That doesn't surprise me in the least. They are despicable.
tryanmax, Yep. West overstated his case by 4 whole closeted liberals. What a dirty liar indeed!
Bev, I can imagine they are pretty indignant over there. After all, what could be worse than being called a communist?
I haven't seen the edited version, but did they splice in parts of Hitler speaking to make it sound worse?
rlaWTX, Nope, you can't make this stuff up! I find it positively hilarious!
They are reporting that Zimmerman has been arrested and will be charged with Second Degree Murder.
DUQ, I just saw that. I can't see how they are going to prove that. Florida defines Second Degree Murder as a killing that "evinces a depraved mind regardless of human life" but "without any premeditated design to effect the death of any particular individual."
It sounds like will need to prove that Zimmerman wanted to commit a felony of some sort and ended up killing Martin in the process. I just don't see anything that counts as depravity or an underlying crime.
This reeks of a huge mistake. They should have gone for manslaughter.
Andrew,
I don't see that Zimmerman is guilty of anything except defending himself.
Joel, Unless they have something sneaky planned, they will need to prove that Zimmerman basically hunted Martin down. But they can't do that because he says on the 911 audio... "he's coming toward me now." That is the moment the jury will decide that things started -- with Zimmerman on the phone with the cops. And from that moment on, the only thing we know is that Martin did not walk away, Martin ended up on top of Zimmerman, Zimmerman ended up hurt.
So unless you believe that Zimmerman was an idiot who hunted down Martin, faked the call to the cops to cover his tracks and then ran right up to his target so they could fight over the gun -- all to cover his tracks, then the jury will acquit.
Manslaughter is much more loosy-goosy and lets you talk about negligence. That's why they should have charged him with that. Juries will hand out manslaughter sentences easily, but not murder.
Andrew,
I think the prosecutor wants Zimmerman to lay down and allow himself to be buttF#@$3d by the NBP and accept a plea deal.
Joel, That's my guess. I haven't seen the charge sheet yet, but there may be a second lesser charge with the intent being to get him to plead to the lesser crime. That's usually how they do it, and it's very effective. I've known many innocent people who plead guilty to avoid the possibility of a serious sentence.
i may have pooped myself with this thought today, but thought i'd throw it out here and see what sticks: romney/ron paul ticket.
seems totally ridiculous at first, but then...
thoughts?
Patti, It's an interesting though, but I don't see it happening -- though I could see Rand Paul... possibly.
Of course, stranger things have happened?
rand paul definitely. west seems more polarizing lately, although you know how i feel about him. ron paul would placate his fanatics. i also like the idea of thaddeus mccotter. but, it's ron that got me all freaked out in thought at the weirdo possibilities of him on the ticket.
Andrew,
This is how the prosecutor get a 95% conviction rate. I hope Zimmerman has great big cojones. If I was a lawyer in Florida, I would offer my services pro-bono to this guy. I know this is a political rush to judgement.
This is idiotic and just proof that lynch mobs, though antithetical to the rule of law, can be quite effective. Perhaps there's some new piece of evidence we don't know about that implicates Zimmermann, but I don't see how there could be.
Oh, and NBC is sticking to its usual crappy standard of reporting, talking about how bad this looks for the local PD, which "claimed there was no evidence to convict him, and now a seasoned prosecutor says there is." Um, except that's exactly the opposite of what happened. Ugh....
We were expecting the right-wing parallel media to acquiesce and get behind Romney, but one man is working hard to to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Developing a new meme that Romney = Obama, Glenn Beck imagined on radio today some eerie similarity between the Obama logo and the Romney logo. He also has decided that, not only would a shoe be better than Barack 0bama, but it would also be better than Mitt Romney.
This meme originates, of course, on the left. And now RWR+bloggers have greedily scooped it up as their own. Obama's own manifestation of the meme has been to claim the mandle of Reagan. Even he knows how absurd that is, but every time he demonstrates that Obama ≠ Reagan he also reminds RWR that Romney ≠ Reagan. He knows they will complete the faluty math for him.
Now that Zimmerman is in custody, the Martin family is urging supporters to remain peaceful.
...
The other thing wrong with that statement is that either side has "supporters" in a society of laws.
Joel, Here is how you get a 90+% conviction rate.
1. Destroy soul one night before taking job.
2. Wait for cops to finger someone.
3. Charge them with huge crimes and one easy crime.
4. Repeat following: "Joel, You're looking at spending the rest of your life in jail... or you can plead to reckless endangerment and serve a maximum 5 years, which will actually be a 2 years sentence (because that's what the judge gives) and will be reduced to 11 months with good behavior. Do you want to risk spending the rest of your life in jail when you could be out in 11 months?"
5. Brag about putting away yet another bad guy.
Patti, The idea of Ron Paul on the ticket does make me laugh. I can't imagine how that would turn out!
I would love to see McCotter, except I'm not sure he gives Romney the punch he needs. He needs someone with national reach and McCotter doesn't have that yet.
T-Rav, Mobs do influence prosecutors. So does media attention and getting re-elected. Our system really is not a smart system. It needs to a lot of reform to make it more fair and less political.
It's possible the prosecutor has something we don't know about -- an audio tape, a jailhouse confession, or something which contradicts the story. BUT I would expect that would have been revealed already. PLUS, I think he would have been charged immediately if there was something like that.
My guess is that this prosecutor has made a political decision which she thinks will make Florida "justice" look good in national eyes.
And she will be reworded with the love of the MSM for about 2 days. Then she will be blasted for losing the case.
tryanmax, Beck is an idiot. His grasp of law and economics is about as wrong as humanly possible. His understanding of politics is pure fringe fantasy.
And I am not surprised that he's now reading tea leaves to find the mark of the devil buried within Romney's evil soul. I keep meaning to e-mail him that Romney once owned a copy of Alinky's book, meaning that Romney is the true Alinksy Trogan Horse and Obama was a just a decoy horse.
Idiot.
tryanmax, There should never be supporters, but our system has forgotten that, and out politicians encourage that.
Putting Ron Paul on the ticket would probably make me lose my last shred of sanity. Please, for my sake, don't be pushing this. :-/
T-Rav, Rest assured, Romney won't pick Paul. And I won't be pushing it, though it is fun to think about... in an imagine the insanity sort of way! ;p
T-Rav: Prosecutors are indeed influenced by mob threats and media publicity, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they have caved in. The standard for prosecution is "something happened here, a death ensued, and there is sufficient evidence that what happened may have been criminal." But the method of prosecution chosen may be a wise one. Instead of using a grand jury, then going straight to trial, there is an intermediate step. The prosecutor files what's called an "information," and then there is a "preliminary hearing." That preliminary hearing determines if there was probable cause to bind the accused over for trial. In other words, more likely than not. Proof beyond a reasonable doubt is reserved for trial.
This way of doing it gives the prosecution a chance to show it didn't act precipitously and believed it had sufficient evidence for trial, not for conviction. It also gives the defense a chance to see and hear what the basic prosecution case is, openly and publicly, unlike a grand jury indictment. The defense attacks what seems patently incorrect, but rarely puts on a full defense. Once having seen what the prosecution has (or doesn't have), motions regarding the sufficiency of the evidence and constitutional issues are heard prior to trial. Preliminary examinations largely result in a binding over for trial, but not always.
Here, for the sake of peace and public safety, the prosecutor probably made the best of a bad situation. She will do her job, but at least she can't be accused of going after Zimmerman in the dark with a grand jury indictment. The defense now has a chance to get the case ("information") dismissed, quashed, or modified before even getting to the pretrial phase, where the defense gets another chance to modify or dismiss the case.
That said, this is exactly the method the L.A. District Attorney followed in the Rodney King case, the cops were tried, and found not guilty at trial. The result of all the attempts to maintain peace was that the mob rioted anyway. What parallels I should draw between the Zimmerman case and the King case I can't say for sure. But it still worries me.
Andrew,
I wish it weren't so, but....man, it is so true. People get charged with at least two crimes and copping to the lessor gives the prosecutor too much lee way.
I wish for every plea bargain, the prosecutor loses a percentage of their pay for that week. Give them a monetary reason to pursue and convict real cases. In this case, they should not even get paid to do it. I know this is totally impractical, and should never happen, but I can wish it.
Lawhawk, It's going to be interesting to see how this one turns out. I suspect any jury will him not guilty.
LawHawk, I hope she was just doing her job. Part of my worry in cases like this is the attorneys take advantage of them as a stepping stone to national fame and/or a political career. Either way, this second-degree charge can't stick and if Zimmermann is found not guilty, there probably will be King-style riots.
Joel, I agree. It is a truly abusive system where you can tell someone... "you're going away forever OR you can agree to go away for a little while."
DUI is a good example. When your client is told either take 90 days time served or face 10 years in jail, who in their right mind would fight no matter what the evidence showed?
People also don't realize that most prosecutors are elected and their goal is simply to make the office look good to keep their jobs. That's why they don't try hard cases they should and why they come down hard on easy cases they should overlook, and why they use tricks like the above to get everyone else.
Even worse, many of our laws are set up with huge prosecutorial discretion precisely because we are told "we can trust prosecutors to do the right thing because they are public servants." But that's BS. And yet so many laws now give prosecutors these wide, wide powers to snare anyone. It's all very disturbing.
T-Rav, They are already planning to try him a second time if they can't get him the first time -- Holder is sniffing around with federal charges (which should be double jeopardy but aren't).
If you want a clue what she's up to, notice that she called Martin's family "this sweet family." That's not dispassionate talk. She should not be weighing how much she likes the family.
"this sweet family", BS! squared and cubed. "This sweet family" didn't miss young Trayvon for three days. You know where he was? Lying in a morgue with a toe tag. From what I could tell, they didn't even know he had a computer name of "no-limit-n***a" let alone a Facebook account.
romney and paul...hehe...EXPLODE
Joel, That's the problem with liberalism -- liberals for get everything that happened and only judge the situation on what they see before them. If Zimmerman had met with her and told a weepy enough story, I'll bet she wouldn't have charged him.
also, here's what i hate about beck: he shouts to anyone who can hear that all he cares about is saving america, and he wants you to help save her to. the catch? all you gotta do is pony up some cash so he can sell you the path to righteousness. if his intent was to save, he'd be doing it for free.
blech, beck.
Patti, It does kind of boggle the mind, doesn't it?! LOL! That would indeed be one of the most interesting moments in recent political history.
Of course, T-Rav would truly lose his mind and we can't have that. But history would get a kick out of it! :)
t-rav: never fear, it's merely a fun joke, and i promise not to encourage it.
Patti, I agree. Beck is very much a snake-oil salesman. What he's offering is nonsense and doublespeak. He's promising too-good-to-be-true cures for all the evils in the world and then he's trying to get the people he's fooled to hand over their hard-earned money so he can "keep fighting" for them, when he's never actually fought for anyone. And his attempt to turn the Tea Party into a cult of personality was obscene.
T-Rav: Even is she was responding to public pressure, this was the best way to do it. The chances of this case resulting in a guilty verdict on murder are very slim. Plea bargaining is the best bet for the prosecution, if she thinks her position is weak. But we're a long way from that point. There is plenty of legal maneuvering to be done before it ever reaches trial, and my first impression of Zimmerman's new attorney is that he is experienced and competent and would recommend taking a plea bargain only if he thought the facts and evidence leave no other recommendation. And if Zimmerman rejects the bargain, I also get the impression that this attorney would not take any crap from the prosecution.
Having said that, I will continue to believe that there is a substantial likelihood of rioting (like the Rodney King aftermath) if Zimmerman were found not guilty, or pleads to a lesser charge (negligent homicide is not on the table yet, but it could be at a later stage). The race-baiters, like sharks smelling blood in the water, are out to make this another of those phony "no justice, no peace" opportunities for violence.
As for using the case as a stepping stone to higher office or a political career, that can backfire very badly, and sensible prosecutors know that. For instance, where are Marcia Clark and Chris Darden (the OJ prosecutors) today? Who knows? And where is Mike Nifong, the overzealous prosecutor in the Duke lacrosse players case? He's out of jail after a short stay, but he's also disbarred, discredited and bankrupt.
Rioting? I guess that means a "target rich environment" for Koreans.
Seriously, LawHawk, I do think that a people should arm themselves and do target practice as much as possible. This is how whites riot. Target practice.
Patti et al. The thing that truly disturbs me about Beck is he has this mantra of "the truth has no agenda" and such, yet he'll whip up a phony narrative quick as the rest.
He pays homage to the founding fathers and their vision of limited government and yet he endorses tit-for-tat politics that would see an equal behemoth with a different party at the helm.
And, of course, I must second what Patti said about his 101 ways to make a buck off the fear and folly of others. I'm ashamed to say he ever got a buck from me, but I did buy one of his books. :(
Now, a quick venture into cuckoo land: I've encountered a number of open questions about whether Romney believes in the "White Horse Prophesy." Yet no one seems to ask the same question of Beck. Ironically, many of the same evangelicals who are leery of Romney adore Beck. I personally would not be surprised to learn that Beck not only believes in the White Horse Prophesy, but lives by it.
Andrew: I agree on the chances of Zimmerman being found guilty of any type of murder at trial.
I was very lucky early in my career. I practiced in Ventura County, where plea bargaining was very much discouraged by the policy of the county judicial council. It meant that prosecutors had better not file charges they didn't think they could truly make stick, and defense counsel knew that once the prosecutor had gone forward, it was time to be fully prepared to fight with everything in his arsenal to prove his client not guilty. I was amazed from the very first time I wandered out of my county's jurisdiction into Los Angeles and Santa Barbara to find out how many horrendous charges would be filed against a simple criminal defendant to get him to bargain for a lesser charge. I found it slimy and unseemly, but those prosecutors were often caught flat-footed when I simply announced "ready for trial." The first time I entered a not guilty plea at the arraignment on a drunk driving charge in Santa Barbara county, I heard other attorneys in the court whispering "I think he just demanded a jury trial on a first offense DUI." The judge asked if I had talked with the DA before entering the plea. Naive me. I asked "why would I want to do that?" In Ventura, "talking to the DA" in advance of arraignment would have been a total waste of everybody's time. If we did put on a good defense, but lost, the DA was willing to sentence-bargain if it appeared we were serious about an appeal.
Joel: I am a firm believer in gun ownership and training in how to use your weapon. I also believe strongly in the inherent right of self-defense. But I don't agree that's how white people riot. I think it's simply how many of them stay alive. I still consider voting conservative as the only proper way for white people to "riot."
Joel, "target rich environment" LOL! I love that phrase where ever it gets used and have used it myself to describe a donut shop on occasion.
FYI, Tonight I watched our local Senatorial debate broadcast live from the Johnny Carson Theater in Norfolk, NE. It was refreshingly quaint after the endless barrage of highly-polished Presidential debates. The highlight for me was the four mismatched podiums. :D
tryanmax, I'm a believer in the White Elephant Prophecy which holds that as long as humans remain gullible, people will keep trying to take their money. So far, it's been a can't miss proposition... sadly.
Isn't Beck kind of a Mormon gone wrong? I'm pretty sure he's got messianic fantasies.
Sorry to hear he got your money. He's done that to a lot of people.
Andrew, oh well, at least the book may serve as a memento of "interesting times" (dated as it already is). I just hope it doesn't prove to be memento mori.
Lawhawk, My experience has been more like your LA experience where they charge the heck out of people and then offer them a sleazy deal. It always struck me as really wrong. If they believe the guy was guilty, then they were doing wrong by the public by cutting a small deal. If they didn't believe it, then they shouldn't have been using the bigger charges to try to intimidate.
That's funny about being ready for trial because that still works. Everywhere I've been, it's been almost pro forma that the defense attorneys always agree to put the trial off. And when someone refuses and demands immediate trial, the prosecution panics. But few attorneys are ready, willing or able to try that because they want the settlements too -- it's easier for them.
I'd really like to see a lot of reform in our system. Fewer laws, smaller charge sheets, quicker trials, better training for cops and prosecutors.
P.S. I'm a fan of the Pink Elephant Theory! *hic*
tryanmax, Isn't that the Korean movie about the lesbian ghost at the girl's school?
I have LINK proof! ;)
tryanmax, I like to think I'm pretty well up on my eschatology, but remind me, what's the White Horse Prophecy?
Andrew, I don't know much about sapphic Seoul succubi, but it easily sounds better than an evening with Glenn.
Andrew: I do have to laugh about it, if a bit bitterly. The words most California prosecutors do not want to hear is "defendant waives further reading of the complaint and recitation of rights, enters a plea of not guilty, and demands a jury trial within the statutory period (60 days in California). I had more than one case dismissed because the prosecution just wasn't ready and asked for a continuance. Without a showing of good cause for delay (being "busy" doesn't count), I would always say "This is the time and place set for trial. The prosecution is not ready, nor has it shown good cause for its failure to be ready. I believe a dismissal, with prejudice, is the appropriate remedy." Even in L.A., it often worked, though the judge usually dismissed without prejudice for the people to file a new information. The catch, of course, is that defense counsel had better be ready and not bluffing in case the prosecution actually was ready to proceed. Ventura taught me to be ready, ready, ready.
tryanmax, It's actually a pretty good film. Interestingly, it's a better love story than a ghost story.
Lawhawk, It's amazing how many attorneys never learn that last lesson -- always be ready. I've dealt with many who would assume they would get extensions or continuances or who assume the other side would ask to move a trial, etc. and were caught flat-footed when that didn't happen. "What do you mean everything is due in the morning?"
T-Rav, in a nutshell, some Mormons believe the White Horse in Revelation represents them. They believe that the Constitution will be hanging by a thread and the world economy will collapse and it will be the Mormon Church that saves both.
Not all Mormons believe this prophesy. As I understand it, it is not officially recognized by the Mormon Church. But as I also understand it, it is a kept tradition and there are those Mormons who do believe it.
I recommend this article if you want to read more: PDF
T-Rav, Having dug deep in my memory (which I now store at Wikipedia), it turns out the White Horse Prophecy is something Smith said about Mormons moving to the Rockies and then saving the Constitution of the US one day. LINK.
It sounds a bit like the Satan is coming part of the Bible only not as much brimstone. . . or Coors.
Okay, I definitely had not heard of that. That's, um...inventive.
I think that the white horse prophesy is a little like Nostradamus...it's easy to look at the writings and revelations and prophecies and apply them to whatever you want to apply them to. I remember seeing different analyses on Nostradamus that "proved" that about 5 different people were the antichrist, all manipulating and extrapolating details to fit whatever narrative the documenters wanted. I do believe in modern, living prophets. I do believe in personal revelation too. I believe that there is potential possibility that Romney may save the constitution from utter destruction, but at this point, a republican congress could do that too. I also think there are crazy people in every group and organization, and we won't know who's crazy and who's right until it's all over. In the meantime, I just want obama to lose.
Tam, One of the things I find amazing about Nostrodamus how easily people read into his writings. The way they wedge coincidences think like someone being born near a river (like 95% of the human race) or coming from a county who uses a lion as a symbol (like half of Europe... and you don't really see too many snaildarters) and then they build it all up. It gets downright goofy.
I'm not really worried about anybody's prophecy unless they go crazy with it and start acting irrationally.
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