Showing posts with label Disasters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Disasters. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

"A Night To Remember" -- The Titanic In Film Since 1953

By Tennessee Jed

Few, if any, events in modern times have captured public imagination as has the Titanic disaster. That assertion is bolstered by the fact four feature length films, not to mention two made for television movies, have chronicled its demise. Numerous other productions, some dating as far back as 1912, feature either Titanic or a thinly veiled substitute.

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Monday, December 19, 2011

AP Top 10: Politicized News

The AP has put out their Top 10 news stories of 2011. As usual, they’ve politicized the list and they aren’t good at separating the pointless from the significant. Here’s their list followed by a sneak peek at the top stories of 2012.

No. 1. The killing of Osama Bin Laden. Yawn. Let’s be honest. Osama meant nothing by this point. He wasn’t giving orders and he inspired no one. Subsequent events have shown his death changed nothing in the war on terror. I’m glad he’s dead, but he doesn’t belong atop this list.

No. 2. Japanese Disaster. Earthquake, tsunami, nuclear meltdown, 20,000 people dead, $218 billion in damage, 100,000 homeless. This one deserves to be on the list. It’s too bad so many Hollywood types thought this was a good time to crack racist anti-Japanese jokes.

No. 3. The Arab Spring. This one probably deserves to be the top story. Even The Economist is now worried that the thing “no one could have possibly foreseen” is happening, i.e. radical Islam taking power. Expect this one to cause a lot of carnage in the coming years.

No. 4. EU Crisis. Eh. Reality doesn’t quit. When you create a currency that anyone can print and you have no way to keep people from running up the bills, it’s only a matter of time before it all blows up. The real story would be if the Europeans learn anything from this.

No. 5. US Economy. Huh? They actually identify this as our economy growing and “unemployment rate finally dipping below 9 percent.” Don’t make me laugh. This recession will get worse before it gets better. Seasonal Christmas hiring won’t change that.

No. 6. Penn State Sex Abuse Scandal. If you care about Penn State, sure. But shouldn’t the bigger story be the recent arrests of Hollywood pedophiles? Oh that’s right, only some pedophiles are bad.

No. 7. Gadhafi Toppled. Wasn’t this part of the Arab Spring? Also, riddle me this: so what? Seriously, how does this change the world?

No. 8. Fiscal Showdowns In Congress. Kabuki theater at best.

No. 9. OWS. Morons crapping in the streets. More theater.

No. 10. Gabrielle Giffords Shot. Yeah, because this changed everything. Some crazed leftist shoots Giffords and the left blames Sarah Palin. The left calls for a “change in tone” while famous leftists joke about killing Palin and her family. Been there, done that.


Notice how they put this list together. First, they went liberal. Most of these are meant to aggrandize Lord Obama’s policies: Obama’s triumph over villains bin Laden and Gadhafi, Obama finally taming the economy, and the masses showing support for Obama through OWS. Several of the rest are meant to explain away Obama’s failures: the evil Congress that can’t fix the budget, the Japanese disaster that blasted our economy, and the murderous right-wing opposition that tried to kill Giffords and is determined to stop Obama. Of course, NONE of that is true, but truth doesn’t matter to leftist. They only care that it can be spun to make Obama look good or explain his failures. This is Obama’s campaign resume brought to you by the AP.

But even beyond helping Obama, look at the ludicrousness of this list. This entire list is aspirational, not based in reality. They hoped killing bin Laden would change the world. They hoped the Arab Spring and killing Gadhafi would bring peace to the Middle East. They hoped the Giffords shooting would end America’s love of guns. They hope the economy has turned around. They hope OWS finally means something.

And isn’t it interesting they ignored the elimination of “don’t ask, don’t tell”? I guess that didn’t turn out to be so popular with the public. They ignored the tornadoes across the Midwest and Southeast. Why? Because Obama never bothered to help those people because they don’t vote for him. They ignored Solyndra and MF Global and Fast and Furious. They ignored the Pelosi financial scandals and the retirements of dozens of Democrats. They ignored the attempt to force a union on Boeing. They ignored the left’s failure to recall Wisconsin Republicans. They ignored Climategate 2 and a bevy of global warming scandals. They ignored the courts striking down ObamaCare. . . something we were assured only lunatics could think would happen.

Gee, I wonder why?

Anyway, here’s a sneak peek at the top stories of 2012:
1. Tebow wins Super Bowl
2. Obama loses in landslide
3. Republicans capture 58 seats in the Senate
4. First case of cannibalism at OWS occurs in NYC
5. Egypt invades Libya
6. Mysterious explosion at Iranian nuclear plant
7. Germany quits the Euro
8. ????
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Sunday, September 11, 2011

Film Friday: World Trade Center (2006)

This article is also posted at Big Hollywood (LINK).

Oliver Stone’s World Trade Center was wildly disappointing. This film could have been the defining film of our times, but it ended up being nothing more than a generic disaster film. It's a missed opportunity, which I think was brought about because Oliver Stone lost his nerve.

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Wednesday, May 11, 2011

F... You, El Presidenté!

Presidents of the United States are generally considered to represent all of the people of the United States. I’ve never doubted the loyalty of any of them in this regard. . . until now. Obama has repeatedly shown that he only represents his friends, as if he were some Banana Republic dictator. Not only does he view the Treasury as a prize to be plundered by his allies, not only have he and his wife become to vacations what Imelda Marcos became to shoes, but now he’s shown a vindictive streak that stretches beyond disloyalty.

For some time now, Obama has shown a willingness to snub parts of the American community that don’t support him. I don’t mean that he’s not willing to implement their preferred policies, no, that’s all part of politics. What I mean is well beyond politics. He is actively delighting in attacking people who do not support him and ignoring them even when his duties call upon him to get off his skinny *ss and help them. Texas has been the subject of his latest attacks, though it’s hardly alone.

Just as Obama ignored the BP oil spill, which occurred in Republican-voting states, and ignored tornados that tore through Republican controlled southern states, and ignored a drug cartel invasion in Arizona, a definite red state, Obama is now ignoring the wildfires burning through Texas. In fact, he’s in Texas for a fundraiser and his spokesmonkey Carney made a point of mentioning that Obama did not even look out the window of the plane at the damage done by the wildfires.

But that’s not all. Texas has actually requested federal aid from Obama. Historically, such requests are granted pro forma. Indeed, I can’t think of an instance when such a request has ever been turned out. Yet, Obama turned down Texas’ request. That’s right. A prairie dog catches a cold in a liberal state and Obama sends in the federal troops with their pockets stuffed with cash, but somehow fires have destroyed more than two million acres of Texas land and cost the state at least $24 million in agricultural damage alone and that doesn't qualify for federal assistance?

What’s worse, last month, Obama sent aid to Mexico to help them fight wildfires. How in the world can one explain the President of the United States (1) demonstrating a pattern of ignoring natural disasters that occur to states that didn’t vote for him, and (2) rejecting a more-than-valid aid request from a United States state, yet offering aid to Mexico for a lesser crisis? The only answer I can come up with is that this El Presidenté believes in political payback to such a degree that he must lack any sense of loyalty to the American people.

Oh, and while we’re talking about this sick bastard, he is now using “his efforts” at getting Osama bin Laden as a campaign gimmick. Yep, it’s become an applause line. Of course, he doesn’t seem to realize that none of us actually give him ANY credit on this one. He spent 16 hours to make the only decision he possibly could. And his miserable 0-3 point temporary bounce (just like all his others) reflects this. Trying to taking credit for the awesome work of the US military is not going to suddenly turn this disloyal skunk in a man, a soldier or a president. . . no matter how much the left wants to believe he’s a big soldier now. In fact, in keeping with his banana republic precedents, maybe he should just go all out and decorate himself with a huge, gaudy award for bravery in the face of a teleconference. He can wear it next to his Nobel. . . and his merit badge for crapulence.

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Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Is Obama Right On Nuclear Plant Locations?

I don’t often agree with Obama, but it does happen. And right now, I agree with something he’s done. On Sunday, Obama’s Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced that, in response to the nuclear crisis in Japan, the US would start giving “population” much more weight when deciding where to build nuclear power plants. In other words, they’re going to start putting these plants away from large population centers. It’s about time.

I am not opposed to nuclear energy. I do not fall for leftist arguments, which are based on emotion rather than science and which mistake possibility for probability and demand perfection when no such thing is possible. But I also don’t fall for industry propaganda, which tries to pretend that a nuclear plant is no more dangerous than an old tractor sitting in some field.

The truth is that nuclear power plants are fairly safe, but they are not entirely safe. Indeed, there have been 33 serious accidents at nuclear plants since 1952 (with another 39 military accidents) and there are any number of things that can go wrong. And more importantly, when these accidents do happen, they have the potential to do serious, serious harm. Not only can they kill large amounts of people and make many more significantly ill, but they can make large chunks of land uninhabitable. Chernobyl, for example, resulted in an 1,100 square mile exclusion zone.

Thus, when thinking about building a nuclear plant, the first question we should be asking is: where can we put it that it doesn’t cause a major catastrophe if something goes wrong? This is simple common sense. When you store a can of gasoline, you don’t store it under your bed or next to your fireplace. You put it somewhere safe. You don’t build a house underneath a hanging boulder and you don’t put a school next to a toxic dump. It’s just common sense to account for potential dangers when building something.

Yet, for whatever reason (read: heavy lobbying), we have never thought about this when building nuclear plants. Indian Point power plant, for example, is only 40 miles from New York City, and 21 million people live within 50 miles of the plant. Imagine the cost if something went wrong! Not only could you be dealing with millions of sick people, but even if they all got out, you still could be looking at abandoning New York City in its entirety! And I’m not talking about evacuating until the danger passes, I’m talking about abandoning the city. What kind of criminally negligent fool thought this was a good place to put that plant?

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that we shouldn’t build plants. To the extent these plants make economic sense, without subsidies, I’m all for them. But that doesn’t mean we have to be stupid about where we place them. Here’s why.

Have you ever wondered how cities, states and countries are able to sell each other electricity? It’s because the transmission of electricity is highly efficient -- even given our outdated and poorly constructed electric infrastructure. According to electrical industry groups, the power loss resulting from transporting electricity 1,000 miles is only 8.71%. To transport electricity 2,000 miles results in a loss of around 17%. (Apparently, 2-3% is normal even for local transport.)

So how far is 1,000 miles? Well, St. Louis to Washington, D.C. is only 878 miles. New York City to Miami is only 1090 miles. Even New York City to Los Angeles is only 2,462. That means you can put reactors almost anywhere in the country and service most of the country with less than 10% loss in energy.

So why haven’t we done this? Well, it would increase the costs of electricity! True, but doesn’t it make more sense to pay 10% more for electricity than it does to run the risk that some disaster could eliminate a major metropolitan center?

Building any of these plants in or near a large population center is shortsightedness at its worst. Put them in the middle of deserts or on the far reaches of the coast. Don’t be stupid.

Thus, I have to congratulate President Obama for making the right decision here. I’m glad someone finally decided to use a little common sense.

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Thursday, March 17, 2011

The Fukushima Fifty

In modern parlance, the word “hero” is meaningless. Whiny idiots use that word to describe everything from sticking to their diets to overcoming minor hurdles to not killing themselves when faced with the slightest moment of self-pity. But there are real heroes in the world, and when we find them, we should take a moment to recognize them. We see this spirit in the Fukushima Fifty.

“The Fukushima Fifty” is the name given by the media to a group of between 50 and 200 Japanese workers who willingly continued working in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant amidst the world’s second worst nuclear disaster in a desperate attempt to prevent a total meltdown. They are called "Fifty" because they are rotating in shifts of fifty to try to minimize their exposure to the radiation. We don’t know yet who these people are, but they appear to be a mix of regular workers, volunteers from other plants, and retirees. The facility itself has been rocked by fires, explosions and releases of radiation. Right now it’s in the middle of a meltdown, which many experts are calling both “inevitable” and “the worst case scenario.” Nevertheless, these workers continue working despite the high probability that they will die. In fact, many experts are calling it a "suicide mission." And they are doing this to save people they don’t even know. That is true heroism, and it has a long and inspiring history.

In 480 BC, 300 Spartans sacrificed themselves to save the Western World from Xerxes and his army of 100,000 Persians. They knew they would die, but they felt it was worth their lives to protect the things they believed in. In every war since, soldiers have willingly, knowingly sacrificed themselves to save their comrades or protect their countrymen, be it rushing into enemy fire to retrieve a fallen comrade or fighting desperately to hold off the enemy just long enough to allow their comrades and countrymen to escape.

The same is true of disasters. Indeed, it is at times of disaster that we see the best of the human spirit come shining through. Firemen rush into burning buildings and police put themselves into the line of fire to protect the innocent. Adults dive into rivers to save children from being washed away. When the Titanic sank, the male passengers and crew backed up their gallant words by sacrificing themselves so the women and children could escape in the lifeboats -- the band even played on until the very end. During 9/11, firemen and police ran into the Twin Towers, knowing they would likely die so they could save people they’d never met.

During Chernobyl, most of the first responders knew they would die. Not all, but most. Yet, they stayed at their stations trying to save the situation. They died -- many horribly, 19 died when their skin fell off. The helicopter pilots who dropped sand on the burning Chernobyl reactor were told they would die, but they went nevertheless. They all died as well.

The Fukushima Fifty face the same thing. No one knows yet what will happen to them. We don’t know if the radiation will kill them or make them ill or perhaps do nothing. But whatever ultimately happens to them, they have taken a stand. They have walked into this danger, knowing there is a high probability they would die, and they did it for people they don’t even know. That’s heroism at its finest. And make no mistake, they know the risk. Indeed, several have told their families they expect to die.

So remember this the next time some nihilist suggests that humanity is selfish or evil, or lacks redeeming qualities. There is beauty and nobility within the human spirit. It’s just sad that it often takes moments like this for it to come out.


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Thursday, November 11, 2010

Oh No, Caught Again... Drilling For Lies

The Democrats like to call themselves the party of science. Yeah, right. Anyone remember Climategate? Do you remember how the global warmists were caught manipulating data time and again to support their political views? Perhaps you remember Obama confirming his support for their data even after they were caught? Well, now he's been caught lying about the scientific support for his moratorium on new drilling in the Gulf. So much for science.

According to the Department of the Interior’s Inspector General, the White House (Mr. Obama and friends) edited a drilling safety report to make it appear that scientists and other experts supported the administration’s six-month ban on new drilling. Said the IG, the editing resulted “in the implication that the moratorium recommendation had been peer reviewed” when it hadn’t.

In fact, eight of the fifteen experts who supposedly signed off on the report issued a statement when Obama released the report, in which they state that they did not support the moratorium:
“We believe the report does not justify the moratorium as written and that the moratorium as changed will not contribute measurably to increased safety and will have immediate and long-term economic effects.”
They also noted that the report issued by Obama, which he claimed they supported, differed in important ways from the draft they had been asked to review. The IG now confirms this.

So much for Obama's claim that he would “restore science to its rightful place” and his memo promising to “restor[e] scientific integrity to government decision-making.” I guess he just meant "the veneer of science"?

And this isn’t even the first time Obama has been caught playing around with the facts in the Gulf. First, he lied about the government’s involvement, claiming that the government had been directing the clean up when it actually did nothing for weeks. Then he misled the public in his first speech by trying to claim this leak resulted in less oil being spilled than the Exxon Valdez disaster, even though the Gulf spill dwarfed the Exxon Valdez spill. Then Obama repeatedly lied about the amount of oil being released into the Gulf. In fact, his lies were so over the top that even the New York Times finally concluded:
“The government repeatedly underestimated how much oil was flowing into the Gulf of Mexico and how much was left after the well was capped in July, leading to a loss of faith in the government’s ability to handle the spill and a continuing breach between the federal authorities and state and local officials.”
This opinion was backed up by four separate reports. In fact, while Team Obama told the public that 5,000 barrels a day were seeping into the Gulf, they knew the real number could be more than twenty times higher. Ultimately, it was determined to be around 60,000 barrels a day. . . twelve times the Obama estimate.

Isn’t it funny that the man who would be Messiah can’t tell the truth about a simple oil spill that technically wasn’t even his fault? And if he would lie about something like that, what else would he lie about? He clearly has no qualms about using other people’s names to support his views, even if he needs to lie, mislead, and distort what they really said.

One of the truism of politics is that it’s not the mistake that undoes a politician, it’s the attempt to cover up the mistake. And telling stupid small lies and pretending that scientists support you, when they don’t, is about as stupid as it gets. Like the President he follows most closely, Richard Nixon, Obama is well on his way to imploding.

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Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Obama’s Katrina?

Some are suggesting that the BP spill in the Gulf could end up being Obama’s Katrina. That’s possible, but I doubt it. My reasoning has to do with the differences between right and left, not with how Obama responds to the disaster. Here’s why. . .

There is little doubt that the BP oil spill in the Gulf is a total disaster. The spill was avoidable, its timing couldn’t have been worse for Obama -- having just proposed expanding drilling, and it is already the biggest environmental disaster the country has ever faced. Indeed, this spill, which now apparently can’t be stopped until at least August, is likely to put at least 2.3 million barrels of oil into the Gulf and will wipe out whole industries and ruin beaches all along the Gulf coast for years. The environmental and economic damage is staggering and, frankly, I am starting to suspect that BP will need to seek bankruptcy protection before this is over.

And Obama’s handling of this matter has been incompetent. He was slow to react, and has been more interested in pointing fingers than finding solutions. He has made repeated assertions that he’s in charge and keeps assuring us of quick fixes, but he’s done nothing to make things better. He’s also made huge public relations mistakes, like going golfing or going on vacation rather than visiting the Gulf. And he’s failed to get a point man on this, leaving his underlings to issue contradictory statements.

In fact, Obama’s handling has been so disastrous that the Democrats are getting nervous. The Democrats have tried hauling BP’s management (and others) into Congress as a diversion, but that didn’t work because people just wanted the thing fixed and they saw these hearings as little more than political theater.

Nancy Pelosi tried taking the preemptive step of blaming Bush, but that didn’t work either. Even if we all believed that Bush was evil, as the Democrats state reflexively, Obama has had two years to deliver us from Bush’s sins. So a failure at this point is on Obama, not Bush, especially since Obama has been unwilling to reform the problems that have now been exposed.

And now other things are coming out, like BP giving a ton of money to Obama’s campaign. And like evidence of the far-too-cozy relationship between Rahm Emanuel and BP's PR firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosne. Apparently, Stanley Greenberg is married to Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn), and Greenberg/DeLauro let Rahm live in the couple’s Capitol Hill townhouse in violation of congressional ethical guidelines. “Coincidentally,” the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee paid Greenberg’s firm $500,000 in 2006 and 2007 while Rahm lived in their townhouse and while Rahm “coincidentally” ran the DCCC. Whether there is a connection to BP is not known yet, but the mere fact that the MSM is looking at this is bad news for Obama.

Thus, we now have an unprecedented disaster, utter incompetence, and influence peddling. We even have Democratic newspapers like the Washington Post getting nervous with headlines like: “Obama Struggling To Show He’s In Control” and Congressional Quarterly describing Obama as “defensive, un-authoritative and equivocal, he came across as a beleaguered bureaucrat in damage control.” Bill Maher has even made jokes about Obama on this. And some have even used the words “Obama’s Katrina.”

But I don’t think this will ever become “Obama’s Katrina” because of the hypocrisy of the left. The left will attack people it doesn’t like for any reason. It will even make up reasons when it can’t find any real reasons. No fact is too significant to ignore, no lie is too obvious not to believe, and no amount of hate and anger is too much. But when leftists make the same mistakes, the left gets amazingly quiet. No error is too large to overlook, no justification is too fake to accept, no injury is too horrific to ignore, and no third party is too blameless to demonize.

If BP had happened under a Republican administration, there would be ten thousand journalists in the Gulf at the moment. We would have round-the-clock coverage of every single drop of oil, every closed business, and every protestor that the left could bus in. But it didn’t happen under a Republican, so the media is silent. Rather than rushing to the Gulf to show us "the human cost," we get stories about BP’s corporate management. Rather than attacking the President for his failures, we get Obama’s justifications and excuses fed to us without any critical examination.

Where is Greenpeace? Where is the Sierra Club? Where are any environmentalists? Where are the celebrities who flew to Alaska to wash off birds after Exxon Valdez? And where are the pictures of animals covered in oil? They don’t exist because the left and their fellow travelers who populate these groups don’t want them to exist. Dying animals is an inconvenient truth that must be avoided until a Republican fall guy can be arranged.

Before this spill can take on the political significance of a Katrina, there must be a concerted effort to make it into a huge political issue. And that is the forte of the left, not the right. For unlike the left, the right actually looks at issues on the merits. The right accepts the existence of accidents and it doesn’t automatically try to exploit these events. The left suffers no such limitations.

So unless this disaster gets big enough that the left itself turns on Obama, don’t expect this bigger-than-Katrina disaster to become anything like the politicized Katrina that Bush faced.

Of course, there is one caveat to this. While the Gulf spill may not become as politically poisonous as Katrina, it may be just one more nail in the coffin to those in the middle who thought that Obama at least offered a level of competence that Bush lacked. And if Obama spends his time trying to point fingers, the mushy middle will turn on him.

I guess we’ll see what happens.

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Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Deepwater Horizon: Government Failure

The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon presents us with a true teachable moment. But the lesson isn’t that offshore drilling is bad or dangerous or wrong, or that oil companies are evil. No. The oil companies do bare the brunt of the blame and should be made to pay for all of the damage they have caused. But the real lesson here is that it’s time to reform our government because it keeps failing to do the few tasks it should be doing.

Under federal law, the Minerals Management Service is charged with inspecting offshore drilling rigs to make sure that they comply with all federal safety regulations. The MMS is supposed to inspect each rig at least once per month. We are now learning that they haven’t been doing that.

The exact number of times MMS inspected the Deepwater Horizon is not clear because MMS has been giving different numbers. They originally claimed to do 26 inspection in the last 64 months. But then they mysteriously raised this number to 48 out of 64, no explanation given. In either event, MMS failed to conduct between 25% and 59% of the required inspections.

This follows a citation in July 2002, when the Deepwater Horizon was shut down because the company had failed to conduct a pressure test of the blowout preventer -- a device that is supposed to stop the kind of gusher they can’t seem to stop right now. And in September 2002, the rig was cited again for problems with the blowout preventer.

Moreover, several years ago, MMS weakened its testing requirements on the very cutoff valves that should have prevented the current disaster. Indeed, they weakened these testing requirements so much that there is virtually no oversight of these key safety features. As a result, there have been repeated failures of these cutoff valves on other rigs in recent years -- at a time when inspections have been falling. This time, it went seriously wrong, costing eleven lives and billions of dollars in damage.

So why was this rig allowed to operate? Did BP trick MMS? No. Believe it or not, it turns out that the Deepwater Horizon was allowed to operate without providing safety documentation showing that these valves were functioning. Apparently, many of these rigs are. And Team Obama has ruled out stopping the process of granting such waivers, despite all the sound and fury coming out of the White House about this incident.

The problems here are obvious. First, the government is wasting so much money doing things it shouldn’t be doing that it has lost focus on the things it should be doing. Moreover, the government is too rife with conflicts of interest. For example, last year, MMS awarded the Deepwater Horizon an award for its safety history. Aside from the obvious of “you gave an award to people who kept being cited for violations?”, is the bigger question of why is MMS giving awards in the first place? Their job is to inspect. They are to shut down those who fail and pass those who do. Their job is not to pass out awards or to play footsie with these companies.

And lest you think this is a minor point, a report by the Interior Department's Inspector General now reveals that the relationship between the agency employees and the oil companies was so close that it bordered on bribery. Apparently, agency personnel accepted sporting-event tickets, meals, and other gifts from the oil companies they were supposedly monitoring. The report also finds that agency personnel, rather than doing inspections, were using government computers to view pornography.

Further, why is the agency doing inspections with the one hand, but collecting billions of dollars in royalties with the other? How can it make sense to give the inspection role to an agency whose primary incentive is to maximize output? Where is their incentive to do honest inspections?

The time has come to remake the government. It is time to strip out the conflicts of interest, it is time to hold everyone in the agency chain of command accountable for their failures, it is time to divorce government from its incestuous relationship with industry, it is time to focus these agencies on doing the job they should be doing and doing away with all of the distractions.

It is a scandal that the government allowed defective gear to be put into place without a substantive inspection. And it is a bigger scandal that Team Obama is not planning to fix this situation.

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Friday, April 2, 2010

The Price of Disasters

There are two prices to be paid in the event of natural disasters. One is the human toll, the other the financial losses. US News and World Report recently did an interesting article on how the two types of losses don't necessarily work in parallel.

Chile and Haiti both recently experienced devastating earthquakes. America experienced the horror of Hurricane Katrina. As populations increase, so do the numbers of human beings moving into potential natural disaster areas. The photograph shows a little of the two types of losses in the capital of Haiti. The crumbling building is the presidential palace with human sufferers on the lawn and an American rescue helicopter hovering overhead.

Over the past ten years, the world has suffered the costliest natural disasters in history, but not necessarily in the same places nor in the same ratios. Haiti suffered a big quake that resulted in an immense human loss. Chile suffered an even larger earthquake (perhaps the strongest in more than half a century), but the loss of life was relatively low. At the same time, and over the past several decades, financial losses have increased at a rate of approximately 5% annually in natural disaster zones--but not human deaths. As Matthew Bandyk reports: "While the economic cost of disasters has been rising, a perhaps more important value--the death toll--has been falling. From 1900 to 2003, 62 million deaths resulted from natural disasters throughout the world. But 85 percent of those deaths occurred between 1900 and 1950."

Where is this disparity showing up most clearly? A study at the UCLA Institute of the Environment, helmed by professor Matthew Kahn seems to answer that question. The human losses occur most heavily in areas of the world where there are the largest concentrations of poverty. It had been assumed prior to the study that the correlation existed in that poor countries tend to be located in the areas most subject to natural disasters. Kahn seemed to notice that poor countries seem inherently more vulnerable to severe human losses no matter where they are located. Bangladesh, for instance, is located in a hurricane and flood zone. Haiti, on the other hand, experiences rare instances of hurricanes and floods, and is not in a particularly active earthquake zone.

Kahn's conclusion was that higher death tolls in some nations was not explained by a larger number of catastrophes or severe earthquakes, floods, droughts, or other shocks. "After controlling for the number of natural disasters and the intensity of those disasters, wealth was the most important factor in determining why some nations have higher death tolls from disasters than others." Even more detailed analysis showed that "if a country's gross domestic product per capita increased from $2,000 to $14,000,that country would have 764 fewer deaths from natural disasters every year."

At $14,700, Chile suffered far, far fewer human losses than Haiti at $1,300. As Kahn puts it: "In Chile, we know that they had better building codes [which result in higher construction costs]. A richer guy can afford a home built from better materials with better structural integrity. In Haiti, many houses were built with cruddy materials."

But that doesn't tell the whole story. Katrina caused far fewer deaths than the earthquake in Haiti, but it created $111 billion dollars more in estimated financial losses and reconstruction costs than that estimated for Haiti. Kahn explains that very simply: "Being richer also means that there is more wealth to destroy." The poorest of New Orleans residents lived well above the economic level of all but the very richest of Haitians. Harvard Business School professor Eric Werker adds to that assessment: "Even as disaster mitigation lowers the total percentage of capital stock that is damaged, when the capital stock itself goes up, it's possible that the total damage goes up as well."

California experienced a stronger earthquake than Haiti in 1989. But California was a wealthy state with largely modern (and expensive) infrastructure. By Haitian standards, California is still a rich state. The quake did immense financial damage to the heavily-populated Bay Area, but resulted in comparatively few deaths (most as the result of a badly-planned and archaic piggyback freeway collapse).

But even such logical analyses by college professors are not going to be free from the mantra of "climate change" (formally known as global warming). The professors conclude that with climate change, storms and droughts will get worse, and even if populations become wealthier and better prepared, it won't be enough to keep up with the damage caused naturally. Amazingly, after paying proper obeisance to "climate change," they both assume that with more economic growth and wealth, improved economies can help to prepare for those natural disasters. In other words, they'll be more expensive financially, but less expensive in terms of human losses.

Still, there are limits to what money alone can do to improve the future lot of poor people caught in natural disasters. Wealthy nations, most notably the United States, are pouring billions into the cause of the Haiti disaster. But how much good will that do in the long run? Like the failed financial bailouts domestically, the handouts to Haiti can produce both a temporary euphoria while producing long-term dependence on the good nature of others. Werker says: "Just as large financial institutions know that, since they are 'too big to fail,' the government will bail them out in a crisis [despite their poor planning and profligacy], so too can individuals or even governments expect to be bailed out in the event of a natural disaster."

That latter expectation does not lead toward sound planning and good investment for the future. Why plan well if poor planning and loosened-belts have no serious consequences? In the case of natural disasters, that will result in continued large human losses with the unfortunate addition of the necessity of replacing the wasted money [so generously given to them previously] when the next natural disaster strikes. So Werker suggests that charitable donations can be a very good thing so long as countries and citizens with money to give shift their priorities.

Charity is still charity, even when it comes with strings attached. Says Werker: "It's probably safe to say that as a whole, the international community is too focused on relief over prevention. Donors [should] give money to institutions that will allow poor countries more of the same advantages that rich countries can afford: building codes and enforcement, dikes, levees, early-warning systems for tsunamis, and basic infrastructure like irrigation and rural road maintenance to combat drought."

Although Werker did not directly address the Haiti earthquake by itself, he certainly touched on it in his suggestion regarding building codes and enforcement. After the medical care has been rendered from the funds of charities and the US government, what money is left (and even more) should be spent on building safe homes, hospitals, and other infrastructure. But that money is not a bottomless well. Sooner or later, Haiti, like many other nations, is going to have to get its priorities straight, get its economy in gear, and learn to plan for the future using their own funds. How many times can we continue to provide new livers for patients who refuse to stop their alcoholic ways? We're a generous people, but even charity has its limits.
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