Obama's Anti-Bounce

President Obama likes to think of himself as historic, and in many ways he is. He’s the first black President, the first foreign-born President, and the first President with no clue what he’s doing. Now we can add another first. Whenever a President makes a decision or gives an important speech, they receive a bounce in their poll numbers. Barack doesn’t.

This week, Obama’s approval rating fell to a new low at Gallup: 47%. That’s hardly a shocker, however, as he’s been below 50% at Gallup for most of the time since mid-November.

More ominously for Obama, perhaps, is that his approval rating would be a lot lower if not for Democratic groupthink -- 83% of Democrats rate him favorably. By comparison, only 14% of Republicans and only 42% of independents rate him favorably. If independents decide elections, then Obama loses in a landslide. Voter-opinion intensity matters too and those who strongly dislike Obama outnumber those who strongly like him by 11%.

Even more ominously, 71% of Americans say they are “angry” about the current policies of the federal government, with 46% describing themselves as “very angry.” That’s up 10% since September. At this rate, 520% of the American public will be very angry by the time he leaves office in 2012. . . just kidding, it will be 526%.

But we’re not here today just to talk about his current ratings or whether he’ll be able to go into a Home Depo with Joe Biden without getting spit on after he leaves office. No, we’re hear to talk about the Obama bounce. . . or the lack thereof.

Let’s take a look at Obama’s approval number again, this time in chart form:


Notice that Obama’s approval rating briefly rose from 49% to 52% last week before crashing to 47% a couple days later. That little rise is the bounce Obama got from his Afghanistan speech. That’s it: a 3% bounce! And he could only hold it for a day or two, before it vanished. . . taking two extra points with it.

This is actually becoming a pattern with Obama.

Obama got a 3% jump when he got his Norgie (his Nobel Prize for the uninitiated). He went from 53% to 56%. He kept that bounce all of two days before losing it. Within a week, he lost two more points, giving him a net loss of 2% within a week (from 53% to 51%) on that “bounce.”

His big health care speech got him a 4% bounce, from 47% to 51%. He kept that bounce one day before losing 6%. He lost another 3% the following day, giving him a net loss of 5% in four days (from 47% to 42%) on his “bounce.”

Obama’s jobs summit gave him a 1% bounce, from 51% to 52%, which he kept one day before that too vanished and took an additional 4% with it, giving him a net loss of 4% in two days (from 51% to 47%) on that “bounce.” Perhaps he should stop giving speeches?

What could explain Obama’s anti-bounce? Maybe people don’t trust/believe him:

• Sixty percent (60%) of Americans believe ObamaCare will increase the budget deficit and result in higher middle-class taxes, despite Obama's continued denials.

• Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters believe scientists falsified the data upon which Obama is relying to push through an anti-global warming treaty.

• A full 58% of voters say that it’s unlikely the stimulus saved or created 600,000 jobs as Obama claims.

• Another 55% say Obama’s summit will not reduce unemployment, even before he announces his plan. That’s clear evidence of a loss of trust.

Indeed, when it comes to jobs (and other things), Americans have no faith in him. Despite Obama’s giddy self-congratulations over the dip in unemployment to 10%, 67% of Americans think the unemployment rate will be the same or higher a year from now. Perhaps they realize that the only reason the number was down was that people fell out of the work force, with another 100,000 having given up on finding work -- labor force participation fell to its lowest level in nearly 24 years. Maybe they just remember that 10% unemployment is higher than any President has caused since before the 1980s.

If we look at Obama’s approval on an issue by issue basis, you will see a dramatic lack of support on every issue Obama faces:


But the public doesn’t just oppose his handling efforts overall, they oppose his very goals:

• Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters are opposed to a second stimulus package.

• Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters oppose a single-payer health care system.

• Only 41% support the health care plan at all.

And what about that Afghanistan issue?

The media is reporting the topline number, that 53% of voters approve of Obama’s plan. But let’s look deeper. And when you break that 53% down, you find that only 20% of Americans agree with both parts of the plan -- increasing troop numbers and setting a withdrawal date. Moreover, the support appears to be at the partisan extremes: the right supports the increase in troop strength and the left supports withdrawing the troops. The middle is unsure or likes neither. Indeed, 58% of Democrats support the plan as do 55% of Republicans, but only 45% of independents support the plan. Thus, this support is unsustainable because it lacks broad-based support, and once either side feels let down, the support will collapse entirely rather than slowly fade.

Perhaps, that's why only 37% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of this issue -- up a measly two points from before the speech.

Maybe he better avoid Home Depo after all.