Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Obama's Anti-Bounce

President Obama likes to think of himself as historic, and in many ways he is. He’s the first black President, the first foreign-born President, and the first President with no clue what he’s doing. Now we can add another first. Whenever a President makes a decision or gives an important speech, they receive a bounce in their poll numbers. Barack doesn’t.

This week, Obama’s approval rating fell to a new low at Gallup: 47%. That’s hardly a shocker, however, as he’s been below 50% at Gallup for most of the time since mid-November.

More ominously for Obama, perhaps, is that his approval rating would be a lot lower if not for Democratic groupthink -- 83% of Democrats rate him favorably. By comparison, only 14% of Republicans and only 42% of independents rate him favorably. If independents decide elections, then Obama loses in a landslide. Voter-opinion intensity matters too and those who strongly dislike Obama outnumber those who strongly like him by 11%.

Even more ominously, 71% of Americans say they are “angry” about the current policies of the federal government, with 46% describing themselves as “very angry.” That’s up 10% since September. At this rate, 520% of the American public will be very angry by the time he leaves office in 2012. . . just kidding, it will be 526%.

But we’re not here today just to talk about his current ratings or whether he’ll be able to go into a Home Depo with Joe Biden without getting spit on after he leaves office. No, we’re hear to talk about the Obama bounce. . . or the lack thereof.

Let’s take a look at Obama’s approval number again, this time in chart form:

Notice that Obama’s approval rating briefly rose from 49% to 52% last week before crashing to 47% a couple days later. That little rise is the bounce Obama got from his Afghanistan speech. That’s it: a 3% bounce! And he could only hold it for a day or two, before it vanished. . . taking two extra points with it.

This is actually becoming a pattern with Obama.

Obama got a 3% jump when he got his Norgie (his Nobel Prize for the uninitiated). He went from 53% to 56%. He kept that bounce all of two days before losing it. Within a week, he lost two more points, giving him a net loss of 2% within a week (from 53% to 51%) on that “bounce.”

His big health care speech got him a 4% bounce, from 47% to 51%. He kept that bounce one day before losing 6%. He lost another 3% the following day, giving him a net loss of 5% in four days (from 47% to 42%) on his “bounce.”

Obama’s jobs summit gave him a 1% bounce, from 51% to 52%, which he kept one day before that too vanished and took an additional 4% with it, giving him a net loss of 4% in two days (from 51% to 47%) on that “bounce.” Perhaps he should stop giving speeches?

What could explain Obama’s anti-bounce? Maybe people don’t trust/believe him:

• Sixty percent (60%) of Americans believe ObamaCare will increase the budget deficit and result in higher middle-class taxes, despite Obama's continued denials.

• Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters believe scientists falsified the data upon which Obama is relying to push through an anti-global warming treaty.

• A full 58% of voters say that it’s unlikely the stimulus saved or created 600,000 jobs as Obama claims.

• Another 55% say Obama’s summit will not reduce unemployment, even before he announces his plan. That’s clear evidence of a loss of trust.
Indeed, when it comes to jobs (and other things), Americans have no faith in him. Despite Obama’s giddy self-congratulations over the dip in unemployment to 10%, 67% of Americans think the unemployment rate will be the same or higher a year from now. Perhaps they realize that the only reason the number was down was that people fell out of the work force, with another 100,000 having given up on finding work -- labor force participation fell to its lowest level in nearly 24 years. Maybe they just remember that 10% unemployment is higher than any President has caused since before the 1980s.

If we look at Obama’s approval on an issue by issue basis, you will see a dramatic lack of support on every issue Obama faces:

But the public doesn’t just oppose his handling efforts overall, they oppose his very goals:
• Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters are opposed to a second stimulus package.

• Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters oppose a single-payer health care system.

• Only 41% support the health care plan at all.
And what about that Afghanistan issue?

The media is reporting the topline number, that 53% of voters approve of Obama’s plan. But let’s look deeper. And when you break that 53% down, you find that only 20% of Americans agree with both parts of the plan -- increasing troop numbers and setting a withdrawal date. Moreover, the support appears to be at the partisan extremes: the right supports the increase in troop strength and the left supports withdrawing the troops. The middle is unsure or likes neither. Indeed, 58% of Democrats support the plan as do 55% of Republicans, but only 45% of independents support the plan. Thus, this support is unsustainable because it lacks broad-based support, and once either side feels let down, the support will collapse entirely rather than slowly fade.

Perhaps, that's why only 37% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of this issue -- up a measly two points from before the speech.

Maybe he better avoid Home Depo after all.


Libertarian Advocate said...

Superb and very amusing well reasoned post. Bravo!

ArmChairGeneral said...

Considering that Climate Gate has been proven wrong I am surprised it is up there.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Libertarian Advocate! If I were a Democrat, this would worry me immensely. Presidents (especially Presidents who begin with such high ratings) should go up in the polls when they address the public. The fact that he falls should really worry them.

Good for us.

AndrewPrice said...

ACG, The left doesn't care if something is proven or not, they want "to do something" about whatever crisis you present them. So climate gate doesn't matter to them in the least. And when journalists say "there's nothing here" they just accept it on faith.

FYI, I've been working on an article that I'll probably put up next week outlining everything about climate gate. There is some amazing information there, but it's been difficult to gather.

Libertarian Advocate said...

Andrew, You wrote:

"I've been working on an article that I'll probably put up next week outlining everything about climate gate. There is some amazing information there, but it's been difficult to gather."

The extent of the scientific hoaxing engaged in and the Left's nearly maniacal denial of the damage caused to their secular faith by the exposure of scientists' very real academic FRAUD, further combined with the near total silence from the MSM shows for all who care to see the full breadth of the conspiracy among the elites.

I say we need nothing less than an Electoral Revolution on November 2, 2010.

AndrewPrice said...

Libertarian Advocate, I agree entirely. Their response alone tells us what we need to know about what climategate has exposed.

What I'm trying to put together it an article that lets people see what these environmental-theologists have really done to manipulate the data and how it matters -- something a functioning media should have done.

StanH said...

That was great Andrew! If you’re a Democrat, these numbers are indeed alarming. The Democrats have totally misread the electorate, thinking the change we wanted was worn out ‘60s dogma repackaged by the new messiah “Barry.” In my mind ‘08 was a classic American political cycle of, “throw the bums out,” and the oblivious overreach by the left will cost them at the ballot box in 2010. We must keep the pressure up, and contain this lunacy as much as possible. Barry will do much damage until we can effectively neuter him in 2010.

Note: Do you ever sleep! I’m starting to believe the Boiler Room Elves, help as the research team at Commentarama? As we all know elves can go 24/7. LOL!

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, Sleep is for other people! LOL!

I agree entirely about the throw the bums out idea. I think that the people simply intended to shake up the establishment when they tossed out the Republicans, and the Democrats have misread that as a mandate.

I also think that people forgot what the Democrats are really about -- as they haven't really been in power for some time and they like to pretend that they are anything except what they are. Now that the Dems are in power and people can see what they are like, the public has turned on them in lightening speed.

USArtguy said...

The bar graph is particularly interesting in that the only two subjects he has a majority approval rating in (Energy and Global Warming) are at the bottom of what voters in general rank as what's important right now. This leads me to think it's only his base that makes those numbers even possible. November 2012 and we can 'bounce" Nobama and Joe Goodbyeden out of office.

AndrewPrice said...

USArtguy, Good point. He does particularly poorly on the issues that matter most to voters.

And, of course, even where he does "well" he still doesn't have majority support in any single area. That's a horrible sign.

BevfromNYC said...

Another interesting poll result which should have Democrats miffed and or scratching their pinheads - Palin and Cheney's numbers have risen in the last week or so. Palin is about to cross Obama in approval.


patti said...

this post delighted, DELIGHTED!, me. that and the poll showing palin getting within spitting distance of barry's approval numbers. anything that makes libbies pee themselves makes me happy. thanks, for the uplifting entry today :)

AndrewPrice said...

Patti, You're welcome, glad to bring a little joy into your life! :-)

It's amazing that a sitting President would poll so poorly compared to anyone in opposition, isn't it? I really can't think of a time that's ever happened except right at election time.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, If this keeps up, I suspect that everyone in the country will outpoll Obama.

LawHawkSF said...

Andrew: Does this mean we can hope for some change (like a new Congress next year and a new administration in 2012)?

AndrewPrice said...

It sure seems that way Lawhawk. It sounds to me like he/they have no support and a lot of opposition. Sounds like a one-termer to me.

ArmChairGeneral said...

"I say we need nothing less than an Electoral Revolution on November 2, 2010."

I completely agree Libertarian Advocate

AndrewPrice said...

ACG & everyone,

Let me suggest that now is the time to act. Find you candidates, volunteer, give money, whatever. Get involved now, don't wait until a month before the election!

Mike Kriskey said...

Foreign-born? I thought I was the conspiracy nut around here!

As Jonah Goldberg likes to say, "more cowbell!" Obama's answer to Obama fatigue is apparently, more Obama. His belief in his own persuasive abilities is unshakable. That's good news for those of us who oppose his policies. Let's keep clinking spoons against our glasses. (Speech! Speech!)

AndrewPrice said...

Mike, I'm not sure I can take more speeches from Obama. But I guess. . . if it's for a good cause.

Anonymous said...

If I made a cake using 1/8th cup of chocolate and 3/8ths cup of brown sugar instead of 1 whole cup of chocolate would you still call it a chocolate cake?
bo is 1/8th African, 3/8ths Arabic and 1/2 white flour so how is it he is always referred to as African?

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