First, the polls: The AP just released a poll purporting to show that Obama is ahead of Romney nationally by 1%. . . one little percentage point. But at least he’s ahead, right? Well, maybe not. This poll was biased toward the Democrats by +8%!!! How significant is this? In 2008, the electorate was +7% for the Democrats. So for this poll to be accurate, more Democrats and fewer Republicans would need to turn out than turned out in the Democratic-wave’s high-water mark. That ain’t happenin’.
It sounds to me like Romney is several percent ahead.
But we all know that national polls don’t matter. State by state polls are what matter. So get this, Rasmussen and Gallup both have Romney ahead now in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Romney’s lead is surprisingly strong – 48% to 44%. In Wisconsin, Romney leads by 1%, though other polls have him higher. Romney also is even or ahead in these battleground states: Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Florida and Iowa. The handwriting may not be on the wall yet, but somebody just whipped out an enormous crayon!
Finally, I leave you with this. The AP put out the photo below this week, causing all kinds of people to wonder what exactly the AP is thinking? Was this an intentional sleight of Obama or just sheer incompetence? You make the call (in the comments). Plus, give us your favorite caption(s)! Have at it!
