How Will The Terrorists Hit Us Next?

Now that we've cleared the air on terrorists and profiling (we did, didn't we?), let's move on to a topic that's on many people's minds. As we discussed, Al Qaeda and the other terrorist groups are highly adaptive. That's one reason why any profiling is limited in scope and temporary in nature. We have to know what might be coming next.

Terrorism experts and just plain folks know that we have to be prepared for something different after each terrorist success or failure. Hijacked airliners, high explosives set off just outside or just inside compounds (embassies and military bases), the small boat attack on the USS Cole, airliners flown into skyscrapers, letter bombs, shoe bombs, and underwear bombs. As soon as we were on the watch for a certain type of attack, the terrorists changed their tactics. The strategy has never changed--to kill Westerners and Israelis in order to terrify them into submission.

So the facts are that even though previous methods will undoubtedly be used again, we must also try to think ahead of the terrorists and figure out what they might try next. Even the planned car bomb attack in Portland was a good example of old tactics, different cast and crew. A Bush II Homeland Security adviser said: "Al Qaeda's game plan is to create panic, damage our economy, and make us weaker. Was the attack in Mumbai, India, a rehearsal for something here?"

That's a good question. And in support of Andrew Price's position, it's likely that a newly-radicalized non-Arab or two will probably be the ones who try to pull it off. Official or unofficial, Arab male Muslims are being profiled, so the adaptive Al Qaeda is likely to find someone who doesn't fit the standard profile. We must be equally adaptive and watching for attacks to come from a previously-unsuspected quarter. As poor as the current administration's border security is, it is still getting harder to smuggle a foreign terrorist into the country. Why bother? There are always plenty of disaffected and disturbed people born and raised here, and they don't have to be Muslim to be used. And the rules regarding natural-born and naturalized American citizens are quite a bit more restrictive than investigating non-citizens and foreigners.

Although I don't intend to make too much of it, there has been a small but growing community of Muslim-Americans who will swallow their pride and even eschew family loyalties when it comes to mass murder. The Portland wannabe bomber is just the most recent example. Terrorism expert Clare Lopez feels that we have not expended sufficient effort on reaching out to these communities. She says: "I want to see more American Muslims break ranks and speak up in their own communities condemning sharia-justified violence."

As we know, concurrent with the Portland bomb attempt (or nearly so), there was a rash of attempted airline bombings using cargo instead of people to deliver the explosives. A lesser-known incident involved an airline passenger's luggage with a cell phone taped to a Pepto-Bismol bottle and multiple receiving cell phones and watches all taped together. Clumsy and unsuccessful, but it's another attempt to terrify. So the latest reaction from former Bush II Homeland Security Advisor Fran Townsend is to institute a worldwide 100% scanning of all luggage and cargo. It sounds good, but the technology is not yet widely available and would cause chaos for the airlines. But she at least recognizes that this is something for the (near) future, and that private enterprise must be heavily involved in the effort.

Finally, there are the genuine and horrifying threats that we have not yet faced--dirty nukes and chemical/biological attacks. But I guarantee you that someone, somewhere out there is doing everything possible to stage just such an attack. Even back in the late 60s and early 70s, there was the widespread recognition among investigative agencies that a very small amount of LSD introduced into the water supply of a major city could wreak immense havoc. While we're looking for traditional improvised explosive devices, there is some smart, amoral, college student or professor of physics and chemistry figuring out how to hit us with a weapon of mass destruction.

Several terrorist nations who are busily building nuclear facilities (Iran and North Korea come to mind) are also notoriously lax in their control over fissionable material. Old Soviet biochemical weapons are missing and unaccounted for. While Homeland Security is busy shutting down websites that they deem dangerous for stealing copyrighted materials, they are not busy enough monitoring materials which may be coming in from foreign nations which support terrorism. Imagine Hezbollah or the Muslim Brotherhood getting hold of a few of those beauties. Are you listening, Ms. Napolitano? And with professors like William Ayers teaching at our universities, I hope they're paying a lot of attention to the physics and chemistry labs. But with a President who wants to see Ayers get professor emeritus status, I have my doubts.

One thing that most of the terrorism experts agree on is that the best defense is a good offense. So far, reacting has saved us at the last minute, but we can't continue to act like we're in an episode of Perils of Pauline. As one expert put it: "We must get on the offensive, attacking them and keeping them off-balance." Every minute the senior terrorists have to spend looking over their shoulders for the next American incursion is time they don't have to keep planning more new and even more terrible attacks.

It is my profound hope that the new Republican House will wake the administration up to the need for taking the offense and tracking down terrorists in their lairs. The House (and to a lesser extent, the Senate) have been told by the public to get the economy back in gear. A devastating attack on a major city is not an unrelated matter. The 9/11 attack dealt a terrible blow to the economy, but those were better economic times. An attack of similar magnitude, or worse yet several concurrent attacks, could bring an already-weakened economy to its knees. National security is not an issue complete and isolated in its own niche. It is a vital part of the American economy and must be treated as such.