Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Presto, Change-O, Unemployment Is Down

The Jobs President continues to tout the fantastic, wonderful, unprecedented jobs growth which has occurred on his watch and because of his careful attention to the jobs market. Why, just this month alone, unemployment went down a full 1/10 of a percent according to the figures coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Who could imagine that unemployment could reach the stunning low of 8.1% in such a short time? I’d better get my tongue out of my cheek before it becomes permanently stuck there. These figures are horrible. To start with, this is the same president who swore at his inauguration that unemployment would never exceed 8% during his administration, and yet unemployment has stubbornly remained above 8% throughout his first term, even using Bureau funny numbers. The smoke-and-mirrors numbers count jobs created, jobs lost, and new unemployment claims, but ignores those who are unemployed and have simply given up looking for jobs and have used up their unemployment benefits.

Economists and Democratic politicians also tend to help President Barack Obama out by using a strict technical definition of “recession” in order to demonstrate that the “recession is over.” Most commonly, the definition of recession is several continuous months or quarters of zero or negative growth in the gross domestic product. The growth in the GDP is pathetically anemic, and has taken America on a roller coaster ride. But there has been occasional minor growth in that arena alone.

The huge portion of the American people who have no job and no current likelihood of getting one really don’t care about technical definitions of a recession. Being out of work long-term sounds very much like a recession to them. If the economy is improving, why aren’t new jobs and/or rehiring the order of the day?

The Bureau reported that in April 115,000 new jobs were created, while a number slightly less than that were lost. Thus, a decrease in the unemployment rate. However, during the same period of time, 522,000 simply dropped off the unemployment rolls either because they threw their hands up and stopped looking or saw the expiration of their unemployment benefits. Taking the numbers of recently unemployed combined with those on unemployment benefits but not applying for new benefits, the overall total is closer to 12%.

And that ain’t all. Include the number of recently unemployed, the long term unemployed, and the chronically unemployed and add into those numbers the permanent non-working welfare class, and the number comes much closer to 17% to 20%. If one-fifth of the potential labor force is out of work, that is by any reasonable definition a recession. In fact, without a quick reversal it starts to close in on a depression. For every one person currently taking a new job, three are dropping out of the work force. That’s a precursor to even more serious recession.

The irony of this intentional lie is that the greater the number of former workers who totally drop out of the work force, the better the Obama unemployment figures look. And yet there are large numbers of Americans who take the simple Bureau number of 8.1% as both gospel and an indicator that things are getting better. That is nothing short of whistling past the graveyard. Obama, and those who believe him make Pollyanna look like a dour pessimist.

28 comments:

Tennessee Jed said...

Hawk - good post. I happened to hear Limbaugh one day talking about Obama's election strategy being to kill jobs. I believe he was getting at this same distortion of fact. People know there own situation sucks, and I think alternative media and Fox have helped people to see through this, particularly independents in swing states.

StanH said...

I know so many people who have been cast to the winds, just to survive Barry. I have a different take however, I believe all this misery is by design. If we look at the goals of the radical left for over forty years, to me it becomes apparent. The things liberals rail about, urban sprawl, fossil fuels, peace at any cost, moral equivalence, fairness, diversity, political correctness, animal rights, gay marriage, and on, and on, and on… All these things are being achieved by stunting American ambition, and if you look where we are, all of the above list, and more are being effected, in other words liberal utopia, by taking us down a peg or two, will allow others to rise. Though harebrained, this what they believe, we must fix the mistake of ’08! …or our future will be impaired as well as the free world.

T-Rav said...

Obama 2012: Who are you gonna believe, us or your lying eyes?

Joel Farnham said...

LawHawk,

Good post. I tend to think the American people can see through this though. The electorate is peod. Unless Barack Obama can wave his hand and give people jobs and wealth, he is toast come November. Few people are accepting any of his BS. The ones that seem to accept it are being paid to accept it.

AndrewPrice said...

They can say what they want, but what matters is what the public actually feels and right now the public feels that things are much worse than "improving to 8.1%".

LawHawkRFD said...

Tennessee: As you know, I'm not much on conspiracy theories, but I do think that Obama has at least partially bought into the Piven and Cloward strategy of running the country into the ground in order to be able to ride in on a white horse and save the day with the new progressive agenda. But he has to get reelected first to complete the agenda. He may have been a little too suuccessful at the government failure part, while at the same time grossly underestimating the resilience and resolve of the American people. November will tell.

tryanmax said...

It's no mystery why the BLS funny-numbers do away with the unemployment. In Keynes' own time it was known that the major flaw with his economic theory of government intervention is that his models ignore the unemployed, as though people simply vanish when they stop working. Or, put more accurately, his models lack any lag, therefore assuming that all supplies and demands are equally matched at all times, including labor supply. Yet this is the model that the left stubbornly turns to in order to "create" jobs.

If I might add one more demographic to the list of invisible unemployed, it should include the never employed, i.e. those who have graduated from school at any level yet have been unable to secure a job. What good are all of Obama's education and student loan programs in the face of that?

LawHawkRFD said...

Stan: There's a lot of truth to what you say. That's the socialist agenda. Destroy incentive, get everyone under the government thumb, and make everybody equal--equally poor (except for the elite, of course).

LawHawkRFD said...

Joel: Reagan was in a not unsimilar situation at the end of his first term. The difference is that he had infinite faith in America and the American people and it spilled over into enthusiasm at the ballot box for his reelection. People liked him and they believed he was truly sincere. Too many people "like" Obama, but very few trust him or believe he's sincere, including much of is own base. He's running the ship of state as an absentee captain. Reagan never left the bridge, and was highly visible guiding that same ship safely through dangerous shoals.

LawHawkRFD said...

Andrew: If all else fails, shout "forward!"

LawHawkRFD said...

tryanmax: Half those unemployed students will turn on Obama because they can't get a job. The other half will vote for him figuring he'll forgive their student loans and give them a cushy job working for the gummint.

LawHawkRFD said...

T-Rav: My response to you disappeared into the Blogger black hole.

That's a good slogan, and the reason why I picked the magician for the cover illustration. If he can't win honestly, he'll do it by misdirection.

T-Rav said...

I still can't understand why so many people "like" Obama. Why, because he's supposedly cool or something? I have not seen any sign that this individual is in any way likable in person. This is why we keep electing idiots.

TJ said...

I'm with T-Rav - how anyone can like this clown is just a mystery to me.

Speaking about the jobs situation - my husband looked for over 2 years before he finally got a job and while I've had a job during that time, my pay was cut to 1/3 of what I used to make.

LawHawkRFD said...

T-Rav: He fooled me at first (along with a few million others). I had no doubts about his socialist agenda and never bought into his "moderate" nonsense. But I thought he was pleasant and rather non-threatening. It may have had something to do with my not much liking McCain as well. It didn't take long for me to see through the facade, but a lot of others are still mesmerized by him.

By the way, have I ever mentioned that I hate Obama? LOL

tryanmax said...

I was considering the distance between 0bama's job-approval numbers and his "likability" the other day. I decided that, when asked by a pollster, a large number of people are still uncomfortable saying they don't like the first black president. This next election will tell which measure is most important.

LawHawkRFD said...

TJ: The jobs figures and the economy that goes with them are simply appalling. I know how bad it is, though I'm one of the few fortunates who was able to retire fairly comfortably. I didn't really intend to retire this early, but the Hawaii company I worked for sensibly closed its mainland operations after the big crash. I still didn't want to retire yet, so I planned on going back to the labor relations position I had with Federated Department Stores. The job was in place when suddenly they closed all their west coast (San Francisco-based) operations and consolidated them in Cincinnati, leaving only the retail operations in place (many of those closing a little later). I did't want to move to Ohio, so I bit the bullet and retired. Still not wanting to retire entirely, I put out quite a few feelers, only to find that absolutely nobody was hiring people with my background and salary history. I now do some estate planning (largely wills and trusts) for walking-around money, but I couldn't make a living at it.

I can only imagine what it must be like for a young family with one or both parents out of work and unable to find anything that will support that family.

Obama has to go and take his job-killing, economy-destroying progressive Democrats with him.

BevfromNYC said...

"Too many people "like" Obama, but very few trust him or believe he's sincere, including much of is own base."

Of course the difference is that Obama does not like US very much and it's beginning to show badly even with his supporters.

LawHawkRFD said...

tryanmax: I think you raise a very valid question. I think a lot of people will try to hang onto their guilt-feelings about past racial injustices by continuing to "like" Obama, but when they get into the voting booth, simple survival will overcome that misplaced guilt and fear of being thought of as racist.

LawHawkRFD said...

Bev: I agree, and find it very strange how many people know in their heart of hearts that Obama has nothing but disdain for them but continue to say they like him. Lacking a very Christian virtue, I have no problem saying "if you hate me, I'll hate you right back." I have to work on that. LOL

tryanmax said...

Another possible explanation for 0bama's high likability rating: they are polling exclusively in the valley.

"Like, I, like, like, like, Obama, like, y'know?"

BevfromNYC said...

Tryanmax - Good point! And it's not just in "The Valley" either. I was on the subway yesterday listening to some young woman (presumably a lawyer since she kept talking about "our firm") who used the word "like" eight times in three sentences. "Like...I am sure...like...our firm...is...like...blah, blah, blah..." Yes, I actually counted! She was very loud, so I had no choice.

BevfromNYC said...

Here is some good news. HuffPo is reporting that their is a budget "surplus" for April. The first for the Obama Administration. Yea, Obama! Our troubles are over!! We can now breath a sigh of relief and...oh wait, how can we have a "surplus" when there is a $14T+ deficit? Oh, well, I will think about that tomorrow...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/08/president-obama-budget-surplus_n_1499266.html

T-Rav said...

Bev, that reminds me of a parody I read in Newsweek once about the new century and what we could look forward to. It envisioned the year 2040, when we would have a President who talked like a teenage girl. "Like, there is no way I will be signing that bill. As if."

LawHawkRFD said...

tryanmax: That's, like, good.

LawHawkRFD said...

Bev: California has led the way for decades. LOL I first heard Val-Speak on its home turf--the San Fernando Valley. It was largely incomprehensible and illiterate, but I never thought it would spread the way it did. I'm like appalled.

LawHawkRFD said...

T-Rav: That's so two hours ago. LOL

USS Ben USN (Ret) said...

LawHawkRFD said...
"Joel: Reagan was in a not unsimilar situation at the end of his first term. The difference is that he had infinite faith in America and the American people and it spilled over into enthusiasm at the ballot box for his reelection. People liked him and they believed he was truly sincere."

Yes indeed. And Carter left quite a mess for Reagan to clean up.

I remember life in the military got much better after Carter left and Reagan took over.
Not only that but everyone worked harder and had more pride in their ships after President Reagan took office.

It was a huge transformation. And for the better. Everyone I worked with knew President Reagan cared about us and was going to bat for us and provide what we needed to do our jobs.

Nitwit Obama can never inspire folks to produce and give their all. Like Carter (but worse) Obama is not a leader...he is a tyrant.

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