Monday, November 1, 2010

Your Election Playbook

Tomorrow nears, and with it comes the beginning of the end for the Pelosi/Obama/Reid nightmare. We will be covering the election at Commentarama and you should check in all day. Our plan is to provide you with updates on the significant races as they come in and keep a running total on who will control Congress. While we do that, we hope that each of you will post anything you hear locally (or just post your thoughts. . . but keep it clean). In the meantime, here is your playbook for tomorrow.

Let’s start with some numbers:

• The Democrats hold 59 Senate seats (including two fellow travelers); the Republicans hold the other 41. Of those, 19 Democratic seats and 18 Republican seats are up for grabs. The Republicans need 10 seats to win the majority. Most polling projections have them picking up between 9 and 11 seats.

• The Democrats hold 255 House seats, the Republicans hold 218, and two are vacant. All 435 seats are up for grabs. The Republicans need 40 seats to get the majority. Most polling projections have them gaining 60 seats.

• The Democrats hold 26 governorships and the Republicans hold 24. Thirty-seven governorships are up for grabs, 19 of those belong to Democrats and 18 belong to the Republicans. Projections have the Republicans picking up 11, but losing 5, for a net gain of 6 seats.

• Forty-six states are holding legislative elections (currently, 27 are controlled by Democrats, 14 by Republicans, 8 are divided and 1 is nonpartisan). And there are 167 ballot initiatives in 37 states, including legalizing pot in California, "medical" pot in Arizona and South Dakota, and defining life in Colorado as the beginning of “biological development.” Several states are also looking to ban ObamaCare (Arizona, Colorado and Oklahoma). And there are attempts in California and Florida to rig the election system.
Aside from the polls themselves, a good deal of evidence suggests that things are going the Republican way. For example, consider these:
• Democrats who’ve never had to defend themselves before (like Barney Frank) are having to put up defenses. And money is pouring into races that seemed safe for the Democrats at the beginning of the year.

• The Democrats are blaming “secret money” for their "loss." Their use of the past tense to describe an election that hasn't happened yet tells us that their internal data show a disaster pending.

• The media also believe it’s over, as evidenced by their running stories telling us that the public wants bipartisanship and is sick of partisan rancor. This is the same media that until last week was writing articles chastising the Democrats for not murdering Republicans in their sleep. They’ve also started running fantasy articles speculating that maybe. . . just maybe. . . the military might vote Democratic for the first time since World War II because they are “tired of war” (you figure that one out), that blacks are more energized than they were in 2008, and that the same college kids who no longer turn out for an Obama rally will suddenly turn out and “make the difference.”

• Democrats are stating off-the-record that Nancy Pelosi plans to quit when they lose. Apparently, another 27 Democrats are making similar noises. Could you imagine a 90 seat sweep, followed by the retirement of another 27 prominent old-time Democrats?

• The recent surge in momentum for the Democrats in the polls has stopped and is now going the other way. The Republicans lead the generic ballot by 9% among voters, 14% among unaffiliated voters, and 18% among those most likely to vote. These numbers indicate that more than 100 seats could swing Republican.

• Early voting in most states (except Nevada) has shown a heavy Republican bias. For example, in Florida, with 1/3 of the total vote already cast, 50% of the ballots have been cast by registered Republicans, and only 35% have been cast by registered Democrats. This is more than the reverse of the prior two elections, when Democrats led early turn out by 46% to 37% (2008) and 44% to 41% (2006). Experts think this translates into a 5%-10% enthusiasm boost for the Republicans, which would devastate the Florida Democratic Party.

• "Crazy", "extremist" Sharon Angle (who has been more than a match for professional politician Harry Reid) now leads Reid by 4% and growing. And Chuck Schumer is talking about getting Reid's job.
Finally, let me finish by telling you that we are ready to call a race....... with 0% reporting, we are calling North Dakota for Republican Governor John Hoeven over Democrat Tracy Potter for a Republican pick up!

Tune in tomorrow!

(P.S. Make any last minute predictions below....)


Tennessee Jed said...

Andrew - I had my everyday plasma go out over the weekend and have been working feverishly today to get something up and running for tomorrow night. Even I can't bring myself to watch election returns on the Runco. Great playbook!

Pittsburgh Enigma said...

I think, for the first time in six years, my vote in Pennsylvania is actually going to count! Yay!! The polls are in our favor for Governor and Senate.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Jed! Drop by our place, we'll update as soon as we get information -- you'll see, it will be kind of cool.

I am SOOOOOOOooooo looking forward to tomorrow night!

(Sorry about your tv.)

AndrewPrice said...

Pitts, The greatest thing about America is that it recreates itself every time it makes a blind turn.

I hope your vote counts! It only takes one! (I hear Toomey is starting to pull away again.)

AndrewPrice said...

P.S. Any predictions guys?

StanH said...

A little rhyme that came to mind this AM, one day until as PJ O’Rourke quoted, “America issues a restraining order.”

In the fall of 2010, Americas armies were on the move again. This time the enemy’s inside the gate, I hope to God were not too late. We march in sync, as battle calls, the Tea Party patriots, will man the wall. As darkness sets across the land the wicked left reveals it’s hand. So now we vote, the choice is clear, the American heart, the left does fear. No more debate the time has come to rid our land of leftist scum.

Ponderosa said...

It is currently 255 to 178* (+2)

I predict a flip: 255 R to 180 D
I want 290 to 145 enough to override...

Random thought - Without the blue dogs the House Dems will be crazy liberal.

Senate: +10 +1 switch (Webb?)

*Not 218...yet

Unknown said...

I'm like Pittsburgh Enigma. With Republicans Whitman and Fiorina running close, my vote may actually mean something for a change. I'm praying for bad weather and a temporary hold on probation and parole which would foil the turnout for the Democrats.

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, Nice rhyme! I am looking forward to tomorrow like it's going to be Christmas and there's a huge box sitting under the tree. :-)

I love the idea of America issuing a restraining order too! Very appropriate.

AndrewPrice said...

Ponderosa, a flip would be nice, but I'd like to see something truly historic -- like 301 seats! That would be a heck of a message! My prediction for the House tomorrow is +72 seats. In the Senate, sadly, I think we only get 9.

I think Webb switching would be great for us, because he really is a conservative, but I don't see that happening unless the Senate Democrats really get more radical. If he was in the House, I could see him switch. But you never know.

And you're right about the Dems going further left once they lose their blue dogs. It's going to be full speed to the left for them! Which should make them entirely unelectable.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, A temporary hold on probation! LOL!

I would be thrilled if you and Pitts finally had your choices reflected in your states. That would probably indicate a seismic shift throughout the country! Let's hope!

BevfromNYC said...

30(R) - 19(D)- 1(I) - Governors
Lincoln Chaffee is running as an Indy in RI, but is really an R. Not bad for a deeply blue state. Sadly, NY will not be amongst the R's, but then the R's should have run an actual cabbage instead of a cabbagehead like Carl Paladino. And Cuomo will be good for NY if he remains tough on Labor and the Legislature (yeah, right), keeps his pants on, and can ally himself with Christie in NJ.

246(R) - 189(D) House*
Rangel will be in (sorry), but his trial has been put off because he lost his attorneys. If he has to wait for the Repubs to take over in Jan, he just might get kicked out or better yet, go to jail.

49(R) to 51(D)- Senate
This number really hasn't changed in weeks, so I am pretty confident.
Sorry, but Chuckles Schumer of New York will be our next Majority Leader. At least he will be more entertaining than Reid. The races have tightened up considerable in the last few days and I could say that there is an outside chance that that Schumer will lose and that Gillibrand will lose, but then I would just sound like Baghdad Bob Gibbs.

Extra added bonus - A. Term limits will once again be on the ballot and Bloomie has heartily endorsed them. Go figure.

B. The Repubs running for AG (Donovan) and Comptroller (Wilson) are in the "too close to call" catagory as of today. Mayor Bloomberg may be in some real hot water if Donovan wins because it has just come to light that there was some campaign finance hanky panky going on in his last Mayoral election. Interesting.

*I reserve the right to change this before tomorrow at 9pm ET!

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Excellent predictions! Thanks for outlining that and updating us on NY!

I think you're right about the Senate. No matter how much I wish it, I think Connecticut, Delaware, California and Washington are just too blue.

I think we may be surprised in the house, I really think there could be some unexpected carnage there -- but it won't happen early in the night.

I'm finding the governors to be the hardest to predict because so many things can happen.

I read that about Bloomberg, what a jerk. I wholeheartedly endorse something I myself circumvented. He sounds like Hugo Chavez.

I think you're right about the NY crew -- I think they all return, even Rangel. On the plus side, at least Rangel can stand as an example of how corrupt the Democrats are.

I also think you're right about Schumer. But I'll tell you what, he grates on people just as much as Pelosi. His accent, his mannerisms, and his nastiness are very hard to take outside the North East corridor -- he comes across as very aggressive (I had a friend from Staten Island with the same problem, southerners always thought he was yelling at them). Also, I think it will hurt the Dems that their leadership is drifting to the bluest parts of the blue states. That will make them look even more out of touch.

Question... do you think the NY senate races would have been different is more famous people had run, or do you think it was inevitable?

Unknown said...

Andrew: Although I won't call the Washington and California Senatorial elections, I still think there's a bit more than a fighting chance for the first time in years. Combined with the anti-incumbent, mad-as-hell part of the election, both states will be close, and if the Republicans win by a narrow margin, their lawyers are in place and they're not going to lie down and play dead as they have in the past. In California, Boxer is facing her first real challenge, and in Washington, they've already experienced vote-fraud on a massive scale that put a Democrat in the state house, so they're ready to fight.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew: I absolutely think that if Schumer had to run against Giuliani and Gillibrand had to run against Pataki (our former Gov) both could have easily taken the Dems down, especially Gillibrand. Neither wanted to stick their neck out.

The Republican leadership in NY is going to take a hit too. The Tea Party groups may have to take over. Ed Cox has done a really lousy job of running things. [You'd think he would have learns SOMETHING from his father in law.] I think he just assumed the Repubs wouldn't win, so why bother to put any time OR money into any of the races. The state legislature may be different, but it is hard to get any information about the races unless you are within the districts.

You are right about Schumer. He's an arrogant youknowwhat.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, I agree that this is the best chance California has had in years. I just don't know how you can overcome such a huge advantage in Democratic votes. Trust me, I would be doing a happy dance if California sends a Republican to the Senate, but....

*** thinking positive thoughts.... thinking positive thoughts***

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, That's what I suspected as well, and I can tell you that my positive views of Pataki and Giuliani both took a major hit when they didn't run. If either of them ever wants to be a national politician, they have lost my support by abandoning us in a moment where we could have grabbed 1 or 2 Senate seats.

I hope the New York Republicans get a Tea Party make over. They don't seem to be able to do anything except run to the left of the Democrats, and not even very well.

I was in upstate in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when Al D'Amato was sleazing his way through the Senate, and all I recall was the Republicans moving further and further left at every chance, and always running poor candidates. It's time for a change up there.

T_Rav said...

I've got two states to really keep track of: Missouri, my home state, and Mississippi, where I currently go to school. For the good ol' Show Me State, I hope at the very least (we're not in danger of losing any GOP seats) that Ike Skelton in the 4th gets bumped off. I've had a grudge against him ever since he ranted about Bush and Iraq back in '03. But Russ Carnahan in the 3rd is suddenly looking to be in trouble, and even in the 5th--inner-city KC--Emmanuel Cleaver, a thoroughly loathsome individual, was recently moved from Safe Dem to Likely Dem by RCP. If we could drive the Dems back to STL and KC and take the rest of the state, that would be awesome.

As for Mississippi, I'm really hoping for Travis Childers to get bumped off; I hate that I share my name with a Pelosi lapdog who turns around and pretends to be an independent. And if we have time, getting rid of Gene Taylor at the south end of the state would be nice too, for similar reasons.

AndrewPrice said...

T_Rav, Excellent time for a "wish list"! I'm really pulling for Buck in Colorado, and I'm hoping to see the end of Salazar and Markley in Colorado. It's time we chased the Democrats back to Denver and the People's Republic of Boulder.

But the one I really want gone more than anyone is Harry Reid (and that ~sshole in Florida... Grayson).

I would also be thrilled to see Robert Byrd's ancestral seat go to a Republican too.

Writer X said...

Oh, I'm counting down the hours!!

For Arizona, I'm predicting that Dem Congressman Harry Mitchell will lose BIG to Republican David Schweikert in my district in Phoenix. And good riddance, Harry. Also, Gov. Jan Brewer still looks poised to beat the very liberal and wishy washy Terry Goddard. I also predict the Healthcare Bill in AZ will pass too. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

I truly believe there will be more upsets in AZ tomorrow, particularly Democratic congresswoman and Pelosi lapdogs Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabrielle Giffords also getting the proverbial boot. My champagne has been moved to the refrigerator.

If only we had been able to get rid of John McCain. But I guess you can't have everything.

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, Maybe he'll retire when all of his friends are tossed out of the Senate? ;-)

I'm actually counting big on Arizona to add Republicans to the House. A clean sweep would be great, but not required, we would still love Arizona if it gave us 3-4 new Republicans.

My family are running out tonight to get chips and the such for tomorrow -- they plan to watch the election results like a party. That tells you something about how people are feeling right now! I love America!

Please drop us a line tomorrow (if you get the chance) when you hear things in Arizona. I suspect you'll hear long before the rest of us.

T_Rav said...

Andrew, Grayson will almost certainly be gone tomorrow night--and I mean that in more ways than one. :-)

I won't give you my predictions just yet--I have some, or at any rate the outlines of some, but I'm not ready to set them out just yet. All I'll say right now is, I expect a 60-seat House pickup and maybe 7-seat Senate pickup as a floor, and I think it could go a LOT higher than that. And the polls start closing in 23 hours, 59 minutes...

AndrewPrice said...

T_Rav, I look forward you your predictions, it sounds like you've been thinking about this!

I hope Grayson is gone, but he's a big enough jerk that he could end up on MSM with his own show. That would be unfortunate. When he loses, they should toss him back under the bridge from whence he crawled.

T_Rav said...

Andrew, honestly I think sometimes that the last two years have been a giant audition for Grayson to have his own talk show on MSNBC, right next to the other loons.

And I'm not trying to be coy about my predictions or anything--that would be stupid at this point. Truth be told, every pollster has agreed at some point that this year is so bizarre that their findings really may not mean that much. So I want to wait until the last possible moment and collect all the info I can before putting anything out there. I do think, though, we'll see results a lot higher than what the mainstream people are saying.

LL said...

I'll drop in for insightful commentary.

AndrewPrice said...

T_Rav, That's a wise move, and I think you're right that there is going to be a surprise tomorrow. All the evidence tells me that things could be much worse than the MSM expects.

I have to tell you that I'm truly excited! :-)

AndrewPrice said...

LL, Great! However this turns out tomorrow, this is going to be interesting.

BevfromNYC said...

Does anyone want to take bets on what exact time Keith Olberman's head will explode tomorrow?

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I'm thinking he will hold it together until the results start coming in from the Mountain/West. . . 9:07.

Super rant...
Head expands...
Rant gets nastier...
Rant gets nastier still...

*** BANG ***

And I hope someone records that, because it's going to be worth showing over and over again! :-)

BevfromNYC said...

Is that 9:07pm ET or PT?

I say 9:43pm ET (6:43pm PT)

Keith is going to most crazy that we didn't listen to him even though yelled really loudly and called us names to get us to listen! I can't imagine why that didn't work.

I think it will be a chain reaction. Once Keith's head goes, then right on down the line - Rachel, Chris, and J-Garafalo's tiny reptilian brain will melt in to goo. I envision something like the scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark when they opened up the Ark of the Covenant!

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, You almost make me want to watch MSNBC! LOL! That would be fun to watch. :-)

As for Keith's plan, I can't imagine why his yelling won't swing the election at least 20% to the left. . . nope, can't see why not?

All times EST. In fact, my computer is on EST because that's what I'm so used to dealing with. . . which, yes, often causes confusion in my life. Very sad. :-(

T_Rav said...

After watching several zombie flicks yesterday, I don't think I'm ready to see another head be destroyed. I will, however, settle for seeing them all carried out of NBC studios in straitjackets, babbling "teabaggers" over and over again.

T_Rav said...

Andrew, excited doesn't begin to cover it. I'm hosting an election party tomorrow night--if you knew how socially awkward I am in person, you would find that hilarious--and I'll be clicking back and forth between here, the Big sites, HotAir, RedState, and anything else that comes to mind all night. I can't wait: it is gonna be epic.

AndrewPrice said...

I would settle for that. In fact, it might be more fun that way. Camera crews could visit them in the asylum every election to see if they're better?!

I used to like zombies, but then they helped elect Obama and I hold that against them. ;-/

AndrewPrice said...

T_Rav, Good for you! Who says Obama/Pelosi haven't brought us all more together! Just not in the way they were planning.

I wish you the best with your party. Don't let the campus cops hear you cheer or you might end up in a re-education class!

darski said...

I will stop by to see what y'all have to say.

I'm going to be living at the BCast for most of the night but I want to stop by several sites and keep in touch.

I admit to being both terrified and excited by the possibilities.

darski said...

But don't worry... I promise that I won't even try to vote. We Canucks are so polite that way. LOL

AndrewPrice said...

darski, Feel free to vote, the Democrats are encouraging non-Americans to vote.

darski said...

But I would vote Republican so I would go to jail for that.

BevfromNYC said...

So darski, you're a Canuck and you use "ya'll"? What with that, eh?

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Good catch, sounds like an Obama-Justice Department plant to get us to encourage law breaking, eh? LOL!

Darski, Yes, voting Republican would get you thrown in jail. But Democrats love being lied to, so just tell them you voted Democrat and it will all be ok!

Tehachapi Tom said...

The national scene will be interesting but my attention will be here. I am a candidate for our Community Service District, a settlement but not incorporated, Board of Directors. What is amazing is one of my opponents, an incumbent, is sufficiently concerned to instigate a couple of the other candidates to make allegations which are untrue. Even at this lowly political level some feel that defiling opponents is the thing to do. I will comment when there is some information to comment on. As for the national scene I only pray that some semblance of sensibility will reign.
I listen to KOH Reno,NV and it is interesting how the Reid race is running. As for California God help us if the two cancers, LA/SF bay area,vote in the current catastrophes back int office.

AndrewPrice said...

Tom, Good luck with your election! man, I hope Reid loses. He's the guy I most want to see taken down.

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