Democratic Paradise Lost

I suspect the last election was something more than it seemed. I suspect the last election was the Democrats’ last chance to win back the American people. . . an all or nothing offer, like a cheating spouse being given one last chance. They blew it. And now I suspect a permanent change in their relationship with the American people has begun.

As strange as it may sound, I believe the “natural” party for America is (or was) the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party traces its history all the way back to Thomas Jefferson, whose views came to dominate American thinking. Indeed, he believed in the rights of the individual over the state, he believed in state’s rights and he did not subscribe to large national interests or an interventionist foreign policy. These are all themes that remain at the core of American thinking today, even when we observe them only in their violation.

Later came Andrew Jackson. Jackson added a strand of populism to Jefferson’s beliefs. He stood for breaking up the corrupt elite that was taking hold in Washington and replacing it with a system that was more open to competition from small business.

Skipping ahead, came Roosevelt. FDR introduced the idea that the working man should be protected. But unlike the Europeans who flirted with socialism, the American version remained rooted in an ethos of self-reliance. Social security was billed as self-savings with the help of the government, not as a government granted pension like the European versions. FDR’s “New Deal” was billed as a way to put rural Americans and poor Americans to work, not on the dole. And FDR (because of the Supreme Court) avoided government sponsorship of industrial champions, something which became the basis for fascism in Europe. Thus, like him or not, you have to admit that FDR’s programs satisfied the American belief in self-reliance. And they were highly popular.

Moreover, until the 1960s, the Democratic Party was also highly patriotic and subscribed to a policy of strength, beliefs which fit perfectly with those of average Americans.

Thus, the values of the Democratic Party were the values of middle America, which consisted mainly of factory workers and small businessmen, all striving to be middle class. These people were practical, patriotic, favored a strong military (and felt American values were worth exporting), favored a small “safety net” for workers, but also wanted that safety net to be sustained by the contributions of the people who would eventually use it, and they despised privilege.

But in the 1960s, everything changed. Suddenly, the Democratic Party tore itself apart. On the one hand, you had traditional Democrats who lived in places like the deep South or western farmlands, and who still saw the Democratic Party as the party of Jefferson/Jackson/FDR. On the other hand, you suddenly had whiny, effete anti-American intellectuals and radical socialists. The bad guys won. Indeed, along came Johnson and he destroyed the Democratic Party’s reputation as fiscally responsible, as pro-worker and pro-small business. Instead, they became the party of the poor, the lazy and the vengeful; they became the party that thought America owed them something. Moreover, the opposition to Johnson’s war in Vietnam destroyed their reputation as patriotic, pro-military, and pro-American.

For the next thirty years, the Democrats sank further and further into their new form as race baiters, tax and spenders, destroyers of responsibility, and America-haters. As they sank, the public turned away from the Democrats. First came the South, then the West, and then any area outside of big cities turned against them. Finally, in 1994, the public tossed out the Democrats.

Yet, I honestly think that the whole time, the public wanted to continue to be Democrats because of their memory of what the Democrats had been. Their parents had been Democrats, everyone they knew was a Democrat, and they could point to FDR, Jefferson, and JFK as heroes. That’s why so many people remain Democrats today even though they don’t subscribe to a single belief espoused by the modern party.

So when Obama came along, I think the public saw an opportunity to give the Democrats one last chance to return to the party of old:

“You Barack hold the promise of a return to the old style Democrats. You talk about fiscal responsibility. You promise a break from the corrupt incestuousness that has beset our government. You say you favor strong military action. You want to put the race wars of the 1960s-1990s behind us. And you say you want to bring back responsibility. If you do this, then we will happily return to being Democrats; we will make you the permanent majority party again and we will even accept a little liberalism at the edges.”

Said differently, I think the last election was a test for the Democrats. The public gave them an absolute majority to see how they would react, i.e. they couldn’t hide behind the Republicans anymore. The public wanted to see if the party could shed itself of its crazies and return to Jeffersonian/Jacksonian/FDRian beliefs. If they could, I believe the public would have shifted back to the Democrats on a permanent basis.

But the Democrats blew it. They saw the election as a mandate to push hard along the same lines they’ve been travelling since the 1960s: anti-Americanism, tribalism (race, gender and union spoils), and transferring responsibility from the individual to the government -- the very things that pushed the public away. Because of this, I think the public is done with them. And I don’t just mean in one election cycle or two. I suspect they have now permanently lost their status as the “natural” party for America.

I base this on a variety of things -- the unchanging poll numbers which indicate a public that is no longer listening to the pleas of the Democratic Party; the public’s sudden dislike for each group that makes up the Democratic tribal system; and the loss of male voters, white voters, and the elderly, all of whom are needed to be a majority party. And there’s one more thing, something I’ve begun to notice a lot suddenly: moderates are no longer describing themselves as “moderate Democrats” or even “independent Democrats.” Instead, they are calling themselves “libertarians.” I don’t think this will make libertarians very happy, because they really aren’t philosophically compatible, but it is significant that so many moderate Democrats think they have found a new home.

In the end, I think the Democrats had a chance to regain their half-century of dominance, but they squandered it through the horrible leadership of Obama and Pelosi. Can the Republicans seal the deal and become the new natural party? I don’t know yet. But I do suspect that the Democrats are finished.