Wednesday, March 14, 2012

2012 Election: Predicting The Future

The primaries are over, even if Santorum and his media buddies don’t want you to believe that. Let me explain why. . . again. Then I’ll tell you why I know Obama will lose and why I’m ready to call the VP race! Read on!

The Race Is Over: For Santorum to win the nomination, he must win more than 65% of the remaining delegates throughout the race. But even if you combine all of Newt’s and Rick’s votes, Santoronewt has only hit this magic number in two states: Georgia (66%) and uncontested Kansas (66%). In most states they get 51%.

Further, the math is about to get uglier for Santoronewt because they have just about run out of southern states and small farming states where Santoronewt does well. Consider California. In California, Santoronewt gets only 38%. That means, Santoronewt needs to make up 55 additional delegates in the other states just because of California. That means the 65% average mentioned above goes to 69%, something Santoronewt has never hit. Illinois, New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Utah, Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, D.C., Puerto Rico and New Mexico all show similar polling numbers. Hence, it is impossible for Santoronewt to win.

And it gets worse yet because not all of Newt’s supporters will go to Santorum. If 10% of Newt’s supporters stay home, Santorum then needs to average 68% instead of 65%. If they vote for Romney, Santorum needs 71%. If 30% of these people jump to Romney, suddenly Santorum needs 83%. Any analyst who tells you this race can still be won is lying.

Santorum knows he’s finished too, as demonstrated by his new wishful thinking strategy. Indeed, his team said this weekend that they intend to stay in the race despite this math because they are hoping the convention delegates might decide to go against their own voters and choose him at the convention. Yeah, and Satan might fly out of his ass. In the meantime, Santorum continues thrashing about. Now he’s accusing Fox News of “shilling” for Romney (after slandering Drudge as a “cheerleader” for Romney), and he keeps whining about Romney’s money. When you start offering explanations for why you can’t win, then you know you’ve lost. Put a fork in him. . . a pitchfork.

Why Obama Will Lose: I know Obama will lose. No, I do not have access to a newspaper from the future. If I did, I would be out messing with the timeline! But I do know what motivates voters and I can tell you that Obama has lost. Here’s proof.
(1) I’ve said for some time now that voters have given up on Obama and no longer listen to him. This means he can’t win them back anymore. Here’s proof of that: Obama’s approval ratings are not keeping up with growing consumer confidence (LINK). This means the public is not giving him credit for economic growth. Translation: he’s doomed. Also, 80% of people polled say they are NOT better off than they were four years ago. Translation: he’s really doomed.

(2) According to Rasmussen, 59% of the public view Obama as more liberal than they are. You can be seen as more conservative and still win in this country, but you can’t be seen as more liberal and still win.

(3) Only 37% of voters say their views are more like Obama’s than the GOP contenders (who get a combined 53%). That’s the real approval gap right there, and the Republicans are ahead by 16%. And this is despite all the nastiness of the primary.

(4) In the Oklahoma primary, Obama only got 57% of the vote and he lost 15 counties. This suggests that the left remains upset and disillusioned with Obama. I wouldn’t draw too much from this, except polls also show that the Democrats are suffering an 8% voter enthusiasm gap (53%-46% compared to GOP enthusiasm). Even 2% can cost an election.
What’s This I Hear About A VP?: Any day now, the race will suddenly end and everyone will start talking about who Romney will pick as VP. I’m confident it will be Marco Rubio. For starters, Rubio is a Tea Party favorite and any candidate who picks him would instantly drive Tea Party enthusiasm through the roof. Romney needs that. He’s also smart, savvy, telegenic, and (most importantly) Hispanic. Romney needs that too.

But there’s more. Romney has shown no interest in many of the other possible VP candidates: Palin, Cain, West, etc. Indeed, he never mentions them and they’ve all attacked him. Rubio hasn’t. It’s also highly unlikely that Romney would pick one of the other jokers in the race. When the question came up about a picking a "conservative" VP, Romney said, “Well, that would preclude, of course, Rick Santorum.” Yes. . . yes it would.

So he could be looking at a Christie, a Nikki Haley or a Rubio. But Christie is a northeasterner and Romney won’t do that. Haley is not especially popular even at home. He might pull a surprise and pick Rick Snyder, the Tea Party governor of Michigan, or Rick Scott, the Tea Party governor of Florida, but they’re both white dudes and also not very popular. He might pick New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, who is also Hispanic, except she’s very raw and she doesn’t bring much cache. So Rubio is the best choice.

But that’s just guess work. If you really want to know what’s going on, follow the money. Rubio has assembled a team to prepare his image for the national stage. This team includes people who handled re-election campaigns for George W. Bush, Jeb Bush, John McCain and Arnold Schwarzenegger. He’s also racing to publish his memoirs this fall, and his publisher has been leaking details to boost his image. He’s even spent $40,000 to hire investigators to investigate his own background so he knows everything that will end up in the Democrat’s opposition research file. These aren’t things someone does unless they expect to be thrust onto the national stage immediately (as compared to 2016). I would bet Rubio is spending this money and rushing his book because he and Romney have already cut a deal and Rubio is vetting himself for a quick announcement once the primary race winds down.

Finally and unrelated: I don't normally pass on links, but I know many of you are history buffs and these are some incredible Civil War pictures -- high quality, amazing images, well worth the time. (The Atlantic)

71 comments:

Joel Farnham said...

Rubio? Okay.

LawHawkRFD said...

There's a lot that can still happen, and an equal amount that can be manufactured to improve Obama's image between now and November. I'm not counting on his approval/disapproval numbers remaining this bad. But overall, I think you're right. Obama's finished, particularly if you're right about Rubio being the most likely VP selection. That would far more than nullify Obamaholder's demagogic pandering to the Hispanic voters.

Tam said...

Oh my goodness me, be still my heart. I've remained cautiously optimistic about the pres. race in general just because of how bad Dear Leader is, but if Rubio is the VP, I feel pretty comfortable saying we can stick a pitchfork in Obama. Man, it felt good to write that last sentence!

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, You don't like Rubio?

Kit said...

I've heard Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor floated as possible VP picks for Romney.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, There is definitely a lot which can happen between now and November, but all the evidence I see tells me that the people have stopped listening and that when numbers like this appear, it's over. Naturally, things will tighten up between now and November because they always do, but I really do think Obama is all but doomed -- depending of course on the Republicans.

And I agree that Rubio would make a huge difference with Hispanics.

AndrewPrice said...

Tam, LOL! I think Rubio would excite the base in the same way Palin did in 2008, only he's got a lot more experience and is more media savvy so he won't be as easy to attack. And he would bring out the Tea Party love in an incredible way.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, I've heard that too, but I don't see that as happening. Ryan could have been President and if he choose not to run, then there's no way he would go through the same negative process of running just for the number two job. I think he's happy running the budget in the House.

Cantor won't take it either because he really, really, really wants to be Speaker of the House and he's just waiting for his moment to throw Boehner out. So I can't see him accepting it either.

Rubio, however, wants that stepping stone. He would take it in minute and then try for the top job either in 2016 or 2020.

tryanmax said...

Oh, but to hear the media tell it, Romney got shellacked last night. And what's with this new meme where the talkers note that Romney is picking up the island territories with strong overtones of suspicion in their voices?

Seriously, this is media cynicism on a whole new level. At first, memes were just folks all using the same word, like "gravitas" was on everybody's Word-of-the-Day calendar. Now we've moved past words, phrases, and stories and into inflection memes? I don't know how much more I can take.

tryanmax kept blabbing...

Andrew, how dare you post those Civil War pictures! Don't you know that showing America had a worse racist past than present is itself racist? Let alone showing whites who died to end slavery. We can't have people thinking our nation might have overcome its racist demons.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I think the media has lost its mind (both conservative media and MSM). In the past, they slanted stories one way or another and chose what they wanted to tell you and what they didn't. But now they are openly trying to manufacture new out of whole cloth. They got away with it with Cain thanks to conservatives, so now they have doubled down against Romney, and again conservatives are letting them get away with it.

The math I'm talking about above isn't just some theory, it's a FACT. By my rough estimate, Santorum will need above 90% in the states he wins from hereon out. That's not possible. Even sitting presidents in uncontested races barely get that. Yet the MSM/RWR never mention it. It would be like a football game, where one side is down by four touchdowns with 20 seconds left and has show no ability to score, and yet the announcers are telling you the team that is losing "is likely to pull this off." It might be possible in some bizzaro world, but it isn't happening here. And claiming that it is, is lying.

Secondly, they are tearing Romney down with every single contradictory meme they can dream up. For some reason, his wins never count: he's won in moderate states, conservative states, big states, small states, swing states, and everything in between. Even when he doesn't win, he gets more delegates. Yet every single one of his wins is dismissed..... it must be Democrats voting for him, it must be those filthy Mormons, it must be those filth islanders, it must be that people got confused by his money, etc.

See, he's never really won anything. Santorum, he's the real winner. And clearly the voters aren't connecting with Romney despite his win because he's not winning, get it? Oh, and clearly voters aren't enthusiastic for him because he hasn't won. And if only Gingrich would drop out, then Santorum would walk away with this despite the impossibility.

And did you hear about the gaffes? For example, he's rich. He's not from the South. He was once governor of Massachusetts. He's not even a NASCAR fan! Talk about gaffes!! Unbelievable that anyone would support this man, which of course, no one really is. His votes are all fake. Fox News and Drudge are filling the ballot boxes for him.

And if he can't win Evangelicals, they'll support Obama. Plus, while he may be winning moderates now, he clearly can't win them in the election. So Obama will win the country 100% to 0%.

This is how I'm hearing this crap and it's really pissing me off.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

Do you think I have an attitude towards Rubio?

I said, "Okay." I refuse to get excited until power has been transferred from this lying Marxist bastard thief. Until then, I am skeptical it will happen. Call me crazy, morose or anything you want. Until President Obama becomes an ex, we won't be free from this would-be slaver and his cohorts.

AndrewPrice said...

Also, I'm really sick of this fake expectations game.

1. Early in the week: Romney can't win, he's a loser.

2. Election night. It looks like Santorum is going to win when the rural votes come in. "HOLY SH*T! SANTORUM MIGHT WIN! THIS IS UNEXPECTED, ROMNEY IS A LOSER!"

3a. Romney wins the popular vote. "Well, it was expected Romney would win anyway, and it's the delegate count which matters. Santorum will get that, so Romney is a loser."

3b. Santorum wins the popular vote. "OMG, OMG, OMG, Santorum is going to win the nomination!!!"

4. Romney wins delegate count. Buried on page five, no mention on radio/television. Instead, there is a program asking "Why is Romney underperforming expectations?"

5. Races Romney wins handily are ignored.


Last night, Santorum barely won two states that should have been a walk away for him -- the very states he needs to blow away to have any chance against Romney. He barely won, and he lost in terms of delegate numbers. What's more, he and Newt together didn't hit the magic 65% number in these two deep south states.

The real story last night is this:

1. Newt and Santorum simply don't have the juice to catch Romney, last night proved it beyond a doubt.

2. Romney did surprising well with an electorate that is 81% evangelical. In other words, he's starting to connect with the base.

If people are being honest, those are the stories from last night.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, I see. I thought you disliked Rubio for some reason?

Don't get me wrong, Rubio has a bit of a checkered past (conservatively speaking), but I like him a lot. I would honestly prefer Allen West, but I can't see that happening as there seems to be some bad blood between him and Romney.

Also, I personally wouldn't worry about Obama handing over power because I don't think it's possible for a president to cling to power illegally in this country. The marshals, the military, the courts, the Congress just won't let them. He would find himself under arrest as a trespasser on day one of his overstay.

T-Rav said...

Oh, you're sure Obama will lose, huh? Well, it just so happens there's a new poll out this morning that has him back at a 50% approval rating! A result reached by--er, making Democrats 51% of the sample.

tryanmax said...

T-Rav, link please! I want to laugh at it directly.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

I am sure Rubio will be fine as a vice-president. That isn't what I am looking at. I am looking at so-called conservative voices of America dumping on Romney. I think he will win the presidency. These so-called conservatives are the ones trashing Conservatism. This is what I don't like. I am with you 100% on that. When I think of all those tea partiers getting shafted by sham-conservatives, I get really pissed. It is because of the great up-swelling that Obama isn't a lock. It isn't because of these "talkers" trashing Romney now.

The real reason, I think Romney is winning is that he PERSONALLY hasn't insulted the intelligence of the electorate.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Laughable isn't it?

On polls, I'm a firm believe that you can never rely on straight up numbers. For example, if you ask "do you support X or Y," you get an answer, but it's unreliable. Instead, you need to look to other factors, like behavior. For example, rather than looking at "do you like X," you look to see if more and fewer people are tuning in to X's speeches. When X does something good, do people tune in more or less? Do they buy the things X recommends? Etc.

The numbers above have always been the critical numbers for winning the race for President. And they all point toward a serious Obama defeat, just as they pointed toward a Bush Sr. defeat even as he had 90% approval in the polls.

Barring the truly unusual, I think Obama is in major, major trouble and has no way out unless the Republicans hand it to him.

rlaWTX said...

Posts like this make me feel optimistic about a GOP in the WH in January. Andrew is just SO positive!

But then I see whatever TOTUS has screwed up lately, and I start worrying that we will be stuck with him for 4 more years. And I see my friends all giddy about sweater-vest, and I get a little queasy.

The idea of Rubio as a running mate is intriguing. [I'm still trying to figure out why Cain backed the Newt-mobile.] All of that movement in the backfield is certainly indicative...

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, Now I get you! And I am 1000% percent with you on this and then some. I am genuinely angry about all of this.

I know I keep writing about this and people are probably sick of it. They probably think I'm shilling for Romney. But the truth is something else. What REALLY bothers me is the wholesale cannibalism going on in conservative ranks right now.

1. Right wing radio with a gleeful assist of the MSM is attaching our label to guys who are BIG GOVERNMENT INSIDERS who spend like drunken sailors, would happily piss on the Constitution to get their own pet peeves forced into law, and who don't give a damn about freedom.

2. They are letting their irrational blindness regarding Romney overwhelm them to the point they are buying into MSM smears and promoting them as their own, which is making Romney a much weaker candidate AND will be remembered after Romney wins the election. There is no better way to drive him left than declaring an irrational hate for him.

3. They are supporting guys who are tearing down the reputations of all the conservative institutions. Newt and Santorum have attacked Paul Ryan. They've accused Drudge and Fox News of bias. They've labeled dozens of solid, quality conservatives as RINOs.

4. They have insulted conservative voters and bought into a very strong liberal attack about money turning people into zombies.

5. They pushed class warfare arguments.

6. Rick Perry and Newt called us all racists for not wanting to open the doors to illegals.

7. Santorum has turned off women and gays, both of which groups were slowing gaining acceptance and moving into the conservative movement.

8. RWR and Santorum and Newt keep slandering Mormons as "not Christians" and as people we should view suspiciously.

9. As tryanmax point out, now we're offering subtle racism about the islanders because they have chosen the wrong side.

This is all CRAP WHICH MUST STOP!!!

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, I'm trying my best to be positive despite the primary! :)

And in truth, there is a lot of positive out there regarding Obama's chances. The only caveat is Santorum. If he wins then we lose to Obama. BUT don't worry, he can't win. It's mathematically impossible. So we should be positive! :)

You're right too, four more years of Obama would be a disaster. Fortunately, it wouldn't be like the first four as we new have a Republican Congress, but it would still be a problem... especially for the Supreme Court.

Cain backed Newt because they are long-time friends and I think he always intended to back Newt. I wouldn't worry about that.

BevfromNYC said...

I am skeptical about Rubio right now. He seems too young and inexperienced in the ways of Washington and the world of politics. I don't want us to get into another Palin-like situation where we are pandering for the sake of pandering and ruining a really, really good future candidate. I want a strong VP candidate that is thoroughly seasoned, vetted, and, most importantly can take the heat. The nay-sayers are going to throw everything they have at him in the most vile way.

Though I must say, Sarah Palin has been the best lightening rod that the Republicans could have ever hoped for. She has taken whatever they've thrown at her and laughed about it and let it roll right off. It is awe inpiring. If Obama ever learned to do that, he would be a force to reckon with. Fortunately for us, he is too egotistical and thin-skinned to do that.

rlaWTX said...

Unfortunately, I think the GOP is in the position of NEEDing the VP to be a "minority" (again). I'd prefer to get to pick the best without regard to gender or ethnic status. But at least we have some good "minority" folks out there (contrary to MSM-opinion about GOP's "minority" membership).

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Rubio spent nine years in the Florida legislature and was Speaker of the House for the last 2+ years of that. He won a bitter Senate primary and then race and has been highly visible on the national stage since about 2009. That's a LOT more political experience, in a much bigger and nastier state, than Palin ever had. He's also proven to be highly media savvy.

I'm not sure he's ready for President yet, but I think he's more than ready for VP. And more importantly, this sets him up well for the future. If Romney/Rubio loses, then Rubio gets the experience of being in a presidential campaign with a guy who has proven to be an organizational genius, which will serve him well for 2016. It also gives him a level of prominence that is a step above all the other possible challengers -- like Christie.

If they win, then he can claim executive experience as well and can connect with the public as the Tea Party rep inside the White House. Again, that's solid experience for 2020.

The only downside is that the VP often becomes the pointman for attacking the other side, so it could drive up some negatives. BUT he's also a relentlessly positive guy, which will serve him well.

But as for the comparison with Palin, I don't think that's a problem for a variety of reason, including his having more experience, his being media savvy and (frankly) he's smarter (meaning he won't be as easy to trap as Palin was).

AndrewPrice said...

As an aside.... has anyone else tried to register at the Daily Caller and just simply been ignored? They won't send me the confirmation e-mail I need to sign up. Hmm.

tryanmax said...

Somebody check Andrew for leaks. I think he blew a gasket (again).

I almost hate to bring this up, but I think a Spin Alert! needs to be issued. The new phrase I'm hearing repeated today is that Romney is "only winning by the numbers," as though the presidential nomination is won some other way besides.

Any other presidential election year, all the conservative pundits would be calling on Santorum and Gingrich to drop out for sure by now. The only thing that can achieved by these men at this point is to shift the definition of conservative to the left. What I can't sort out is why the talkers who each built their own brands by claiming to be more conservative than the next guy would want this?

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

This stems from what Schmidt did during McCain's nomination. Some people still think Schmidt and Wallace were helped by Romney. Also, McCain could have refused or put them in lower functions if he didn't trust them. I don't think so. I think McCain's problems stem from McCain himself. Schmidt and Wallace did their level best to blame Palin, but any one who actually listened to Palin don't believe them. There is actually a meme running around that Romney put these stealth sabotage helpers to destroy Palin. Like Romney knew that his biggest rival would have been Palin. Yeah, like he has a crystal ball that can look into the future and if he put these two people into McCain's campaign well, Palin would be pushed out of play and McCain won't win so that I can win this nomination.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, I think you're right. Despite making tons of progress on the minority front, the GOP still struggles with non-whites. And a lot of the policies we have don't help that because (1) the democrats have been brainwashing to make things like opposition to affirmative action sounds like it's racist and (2) conservatives have been very poor at explaining why these things would be good for minorities.

Choosing a minority VP would be a great way to help push that further along and is probably necessary given the fact Obama is black and that illegal immigration is a big issue.

That said, some of the best current VP candidates (IMO) are minorities. Rubio and Allen West spring to mind. And when I compare then with someone like Tim Pawlenty or Chris Christie, I prefer Rubio and West. For president, the math is different. There I prefer Paul Ryan (followed by Herman Cain), but I would also be happy with Cain. I could also like Bobby Jindal, though he doesn't excite me as much as the others.

tryanmax said...

rlaWTX and Andrew are right. The GOP simply needs someone with brown skin to explain conservatism to people who won't listen to someone with white skin. Call it pandering, but we did the same thing when I worked at the convention bureau when we'd go after minority business. Heck, we went after sports business by sending our biggest sports buff. It about instant rapport.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I'm ok. I have pills which keep my head from exploding. I'll tell you this though, my father, who is a very, very conservative man, said yesterday: "F*cking southern idiots. I will not vote for that #$^^%$$ #$%$ing %%$$# of ^%$# Santorum." And he's serious. He's never said that before about any GOP candidate no matter how much he hated them.

So Romney is only winning by the numbers huh? I didn't know there was another way to win this? Idiot. Talk about a weak meme. "Why, if only people would stop voting for him, then he would lose. Ergo, he's not really winning." This is called "analyst jerkoff."

I think RWR is proving both to be cynical and stupid. They are stupid because they can't spot conservatism. Remember that the next time they tell you to support someone or something.

They are cynical because they are playing to the crowd rather than exposing the truth. They want ratings and don't give a damn about the effects on the party, the movement or the country.

I had little respect left for RWR before this election and none now.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, The 2008 campaign was a disaster. McCain had no nerve to attack Obama because I think he genuinely wanted Obama to win -- white guilt. And then the pick of Palin was a mistake. She was nowhere near ready for the national spotlight, and his campaign did NOTHING to help her. To the contrary, decided to make her into the fall guy and they went about undercutting her at ever turn. The whole thing was a disgrace.

As for the Romney connection, you're right, the idea is idiotic. How in the world could Romney plant two top advisors in the McCain camp in the hopes that McCain would pick a VP they could then tear apart? It's nonsense.

But right now, the right is awash in stupid conspiracy theories which simply make no sense. One good example is the theory making the rounds (on many "big" blogs like RedState) that all the conservative endorsements Romney has gotten should be ignored because Romney is buying those. They even come up with round-about donations Romney has made to various causes as proof that these people were paid for their endorsements. It's ridiculous.

Just like the Romney and Ron Paul "deal" is ridiculous, as is the idea that Drudge or Fox are helping Romney. If anything, Fox is helping Newt and Drudge reports whatever he can find.

But this is what happens when desperation kicks in and when your own candidate is looking for excuses... and Santorum is doing that big time right now and his followers are drinking the KoolAid. I've never been more ashamed of conservatives than I am right now.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, In an ideal world, that wouldn't be the case. BUT this isn't an ideal world. And the more people you can send who are like the target audience, the better.

Think of it this way. You don't send life-long thin people to sell diet products, you don't send men to sell products to women, you don't send hippies to sell to business products... so why send white dudes to sell conservatism to minorities? It's stupid. You need to send people who can say, "I am like you and I use this product. It will work for you because it worked for me." Also, they need to see that if they buy into conservatism, they won't be the only minority holding those views. That's just how things work.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

Here is something I particularly don't like. The idea that Romney HAS TO RELATE to Southerners by way of liking NASCAR or grits. The way I see it, Romney's answers didn't insult people. He didn't proclaim he loved NASCAR nor grits. Just that he had friends who owned NASCAR race teams and that he tried grits. He said enough. The point being, he doesn't have to connect to people personally. That isn't what is needed this go around.

We are in an economic meltdown. People see that he knows what is needed. He knows laffer-curve economics. He is going to apply it. He knows what businesses need to be successful. He is going to apply that knowledge.

Obama on the other hand is totally clueless and people see that too.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, That is an excellent point. And in fact, let me make two observations based on it.

1. This is the perfect example of the conservative media buying into the liberal idea of stereotypes. This is the conservative media pushing the idea that southerners are some sort of freaks who aren't like everyone else. They sit around in their overalls, eatin' grits, watchin' NASCAR and molesting their youngin's and they only vote for people who can mimic them.

This absolutely feeds into the idea that WE should only be voting for people who are LIKE US. Translation: blacks should vote for blacks, Hispanics should vote for Hispanics, women should vote for women... and the rest of you are hillbillies who should only turn out if the Republican is a hillbilly. That kind of thinking guarantees democratic majorities forever.

2. This is the perfect example of the conservative media buying into the worst kind of MSM spin about what elections should be about -- style over substance. Vote for the guy who says the superficial things you want to hear, even if it's only an act, rather than looking at his substance. Use your gut rather than your brain.

Tennessee Jed said...

Back for golf :) I liked your analysis, Andrew. As you know, this is pretty much how I have seen this for some time. I feel good about the general election, but am not 100% certain if only because there is always room for a game changing unforseen event

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Jed! Good time of year to golf! It's very pleasant outside around here.

I can't say 100% either because you can't predict everything that might happen. But barring something like our nominee getting arrested or someone going to war with us and Obama kicking their butts, I'm confident that the public has already made up its mind. All the rest is just theater at this point.

StanH said...

Damn Andrew, tell us what you really think…ha.

As a Southerner born and raised, I’ve never been to a NASCAR race, we don’t eat cheesy grits, they are cheese grits, delicious by the way. I’m not a particularly religious person, so I don’t give damn about anybody’s sanctimony, from any region of the country. The same can be said about people in my circle of friends, and business associates. Another thing to consider, you can be certain that all of these “southern” states will be firmly in the Republican corner when the general comes around - - in our neck of the woods we look to other regions, and ask WTF, are these dumb SOB’s thinking, or the lack thereof. We must be careful about categorizing a whole group of people based on a false narrative developed by the MSM for decades. When you lived in W. Virginia, was everyone snuff dipping, toothless, NASCAR loving hayseeds, who didn’t no which way the wind blows unless they read it in the Good Book, well I take that back I am talking W.VA.

Though your summation is sound, I too believe it will be Romney, that’s the part that pisses me off, we’ve been force fed the establishment candidate from day one, let us pray, it’s not Ford, Dole, McCain, Bush 1 redux, we’ll see. I think Romney will win, but sadly in my opinion by default. Rubio would be awesome choice, therefore I bet he doesn’t make it, call me cynical. Polls are nothing but propaganda generated by the MSM, to drive up interest (horserace), and by extension ad revenue.

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, That's my point exactly. I've lived in Memphis and Virginia and I've spent time in Tennessee and Georgia and I've never seen the stereotypes the media portrays. And we as conservatives should not be pushing this idea... we should be debunking it. The problem with Romney is the South is not that he doesn't eat grits or like NASCAR, it's a philosophical difference of opinion -- that's it. And to simplify this to "he ain't no hillbilly" is just liberal bunk aimed at isolating conservative voters. I wish conservatives would stop playing into this.

(West Virginia is an anomaly, by the way, as far too many are exactly like the stereotype -- lot of people living off the government.) But even there, the majority of people are normal, like they are everywhere else in the world.

It's time we stopped letting the MSM define us in ways that make conservatives sound like backward morons. That means we need to stop going along with this idea that conservatives hate education, that we are all racist hillbillies, that we all cling to the Bible. They are trying to take a very, very tiny element of the conservative world and pretend that's what we all are like so that moderates are scared of us. Talk radio should know better than to reinforce that idea.

I think Rubio would be an awesome choice as well. Whether or not he's chosen, only time will tell. But I think that's what the signs point to right now.

DUQ said...

Andrew, Excellent analysis. I like the idea that Obama will lose, that makes me happy. :)

Also, I see that Rick lost the delegate count again, this time by 6.

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2012/03/romney_won_tuesday_delegate_ha.html

A few more "wins" like this for Ricky and Romney should have the nomination.

Joel Farnham said...

Also, I am getting tired of the faux conservatives claiming to speak for conservatives, when there is ample evidence they aren't conservative. I am talking about Gergen, O'Reilly, Schmidt and several others. Especially Erick Erickson from Redstate.

It is getting to the point that I only listen when they flub their lines.

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, Thanks!

Yeah, Rick needs 65% of the delegates (more now actually). Last night he captured: 35%. That's a huge loss for him.

Even if you add Newt and Rick, you still only get: 59%. Still a total loss. And don't forget, these were the places Santoronewt will do best.

Moreover, Hawaii showed that SantoroNewt's score in California will not be unique. They combined for 43%. That's what I think they'll do in every non-southern, non-farm state from hereon out. So they better start winning the couple farm/southern states left by close to 100% if they even want to come close.

Here's your link: LINK

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, I feel the same. They bring in these people who are all MSM hacks and pretend they are "conservatives" because they once worked for the government when Bush Sr. was in power. That's bunk. They are liberals, and their analysis is Obama talking points. And they don't represent us, so stop pretending that they do!

O'Reilly really annoys me, always has, because he hides behind the idea that he's neutral when he really isn't. He flirts with both sides and lacks principled analysis.

I really only first paid attention to Erickson recently and he has not impressed me. First, he was so in the tank for Newt it wasn't funny. Now that the writing is on the wall, he's deeply anti-Newt, though he doesn't have the nerve to say it -- he just implies it. And all he does beyond that is repeat the Obama talking points Gloria Borger spits out. It's like he's scared to use his brain.

Doc Whoa said...

Andrew, Excellent analysis as always. I like how you look for evidence in "non-traditional" places. I feel like my brains grows reading your articles. Let's hope brainswelling isn't a bad thing!? :)

AndrewPrice said...

Doc, Let's hope not! :)

tryanmax said...

Just for the record, grits are not a strictly Southern phenomenon, though I like mine for breakfast with copious amounts of butter. I think nothing pisses me off more than the point in every presidential cycle where everyone is meant to be agog over whether such-and-ruther candidate knows the "proper" way to enjoy the local fare. But I suppose if anyone ever stops for a bite in Omaha, the very next day everyone will know the right way to finish a T-bone. Just don't ask for grass-fed.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, My mother like grits and she's German. Sure, she's southern German, but she's German. I don't care for them personally, but it's no big deal.

This whole idea that we need to associate with candidates by what they wear or what they eat or what they watch on television is absolutely ridiculous. What matters is a candidates' views and how they analyze problems, not whether their taste buds or the way they spend their free time is similar to mine.

And it bugs me that people believe this because it's evidence that the human need for cult of personality is alive and well.

Individualist said...

Andrew

As a Floridian I am ambivalent about a Rubio VP pick. I want Rubio to represent us in the Senate, especially because he is a Tea Party supporter.

Florida is very conservative but often times fickle. The Dixiecrats that turned GOP in the 90's put Walkin LAwton in again and again despite the fact that he really was a left winger in Dixiecrat clothing.

And the South Florida connection always has the ability to tilt a statewide race to a liberal and when they get a Senate seat it is hell to get rid of them.

Plus I don't think Rubio can do much with a VP slot except groom himself for a Presidential run in eight years. The track record for VP's getting the Pres slot later on is not good. Bush Sr. did it and was out in four years.

I realy think Rubio does a lot more good becoming a force in the Senate. So sorry I am not going along with that. not that you may not be right of curse just I want something else.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, That's probably true, but that's true of almost every Republican -- they are more useful at the state level. The thing is, what Rubio brings to a Romney ticket is Tea Party excitement and he represents a declaration that Romney intends to act as a conservative. I'm not sure who else would do that except maybe Allen West? He also brings national prominence to the "conservative commitment to Hispanics," which helps us across the board in every state and with the future. So he does have a lot to offer outside of Florida.

Ed said...

Indi, Florida pisses me off. Every time they should go right, they go left and they keep sending leftists and moderates back to Congress. That's really frustrating. Of course, I have no room to talk because we keep sending Harry F'n Reid back to the Senate.

darski said...

So it is official that the constitutional requirements are totally meaningless. Since Obama got away with a very iffy situation (parent-wise) Rubio can get away with a totally obvious flaunting of the rules.

How much of your constitution are you willing to nibble away and what will you have left when you do so?

AndrewPrice said...

darski, The Constitution was wounded in 1865, and died of its wounds in 1933. At this point, it's more about public relations than anything else.

That said, my understanding is that the whole "Rubio wasn't born here" idea was thoroughly debunked.

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, Yeah, Reid... arg... Reid.

Individualist said...

Ed I agree with you

an I lives here

imagine my frustration.

Florida's problem is that it would be diagnosed with schyzophrenia. We have a lot of hard core southern conservatives in the North but too many of them are likely to forgive a democrat that talks the old Southern Convservative Dixie game but that is much less now.

There is a huge block of jewish liberals in Palm Coast that are able to fund and organize the Haitian and other than Cuban hispanic majorities down there. Because there is a huge fight for control between South and the North Florida many Cubans somettimes go along with them to gain leverage for South Florida.

Plus there are a lot of libertarians in Lauderdale and Miami that can always be swayed by a liberal that talks about social issues to them and glances over their economic totalitarianism. It is nerve racking.

Individualist said...

Andrew

I understand your concern but let me ask this question. How much are you willing to put a Florida US Senate Seat at risk of going to a Debbie Wasserman Schultz for the extra oomph form a Tea PArty that in my estimation is primed to get rid of Obama no matter what....?

darski said...

Well there you go then... you will soon have your first Anchor baby prez. will be cause for celebration no doubt.

T-Rav said...

Sorry for the lateness, but I've been out most of the day.

tryanmax, here's your link: LINK And it's from Reuters, which is even worse.

In light of the fact that he didn't sling mud at West by God Virginia, I think we should all assume that Andrew's account has been hacked.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Would I ever say anything bad about West by God Virginia? Perish the thought! ;)

AndrewPrice said...

darski, Why not? We've got a Kenyan overlord right now, what's the harm in outsourcing the presidency from now on?

Seriously though, I understand that the Rubio thing has been debunked and that he was in fact born here.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, Florida sounds like a mess? It sounds like the Cubans and the northern conservatives need to start working together.

In terms of Whatshername Shitz, however, I think now would be the time to do it. You've got a Republican governor who could appoint a replacement who would then run and 2012 should be a strong cycle for Republicans because of Obama. So this might be the best time to find a replacement, rather than waiting until 2016 when we have no idea what Florida will look like.

But you are correct that any time you take a sitting politician and move them to DC, you risk losing the seat -- unless you're in a completely safe state.

darski said...

Rubio was born 'here' to immigrants with NO citizenship. They had not even applied for citizenship by his birth date. Nobama at least had one (underage) American parent.

AndrewPrice said...

darski, Our Constitution allows that -- you just have to be born on US territory to be a naturally born citizen. So he's good to go.

Do I like that? No. But it is the law.

tryanmax said...

T-Rav, thanks for the link. It's a funny article, too.

I've gotta ask, because after four years it's finally bugging me, does anybody have an idea what the definition of "natural born citizen" is? What do we rely on for the definition? The fourteenth amendment seems pretty clear and simple, so I assume it must be something else that is causing the confusion.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, It hasn't been fully addressed by the Supremes, but "natural born citizen" is generally believed to mean anyone who qualifies for citizenship by "at birth" or "by birth." On that point, federal law has held that you are a citizen if you are born to an American parent OR you are born on US territory even if your parents are aliens.

Why they think Obama doesn't qualify is beyond me. I think the issue is that he can't find a birth certificate to prove who his parents are.

Interestingly, I think you would be shocked how many people actually wouldn't be able to come up with a birth certificate because state records are really crappy.

Individualist said...

Andrew

I am thinking long term. The Northern / Southern rift is a state wide thing that crosses party lines. Florida is so spread out and above Orlando the culture is really Southern Georgia in makeup. South Florida has a huge population and they naturally take their fair share of the appropriations budget.

Problem is sometines they take more than their fair share. To counteract thsat many of the rural Northern Counties will ban together with Orlando/ Tampa / Tallahassee / Jacksonville to keep South Florida from running everything. The tension can cause a vote swing that overrides party lines. This is what I was refering to.

Rubio is perfect for the Flroida Senate seat which can have a tendency to change hands much more than other states. He is a Cuban son of exiles who is loved by the Miami GOP and he is a conservative that touches the heart of the Tea Party which makes him the darling of the Northern state conservative southerners.

Rubio could if he wished hold that Senate seat the rest of his life. There are ve3ry few people that have acheived that in Florida. The last wone sad to say was a democrat Walkin Lawton but he left to be governor which allowed MArtinez in.

Individualist said...

Andrew

I don't have time to worry about the birther controvery with Obama.

I stioll ahve not gotten over the fact that Cheester A Arthur was a Canadian.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, That's interesting about Florida. We have a slightly different problem in Colorado in that Denver is so large it runs the state and sucks the budget dry.

All I can say on Rubio, is that you should expect him to leave at some point. If not now, then next time. So you might want to start looking for a replacement.


Arthur was a Canadian? I didn't know that. Shocker! Of course, so are most of our news anchors and actors.

T-Rav said...

Indi, that's very interesting about Florida politics, and also very believable. I've been around state government enough to know that a lot of the disputes and alliances have little or nothing to do with ideology or party affiliation.

Individualist said...

Andrew

Arthur was born in New York I think but there was a claim that he was born in Canada and they were covering it up while he was President. I looked it up when researching the issue when the guys were coming out on BH and going on about it.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, Good to know. I never knew there was a controversy.


T-Rav, It seems to be true that the national parties break down at the state level in many states, and a lot of what you end up with is more historical or geographic accident than anything planned.

Individualist said...

T Rav

What makes the issue so dramtic in Florida is that there is a great distance between metropolitan centers and each one is spread out across the state. Tallahassee, JAcksonille, Orlando and Tampa.

Then you have the giantmegolopolis in South Florida which starts Boca Rotan in Palm county and goes all the way south to Homestead. On top of that the demographic makeup of each city is hugely disparate. Gulf Coast Southerners in Tallahassee, Military and Southern Georgians in JAcksonville, Transplanted Yankees in Tampa and Orlando with a large area of Mexicans (many migrant workers too) and the cultural wierdness of South Florida (Rich blueblood northerners, a large Jewish population, Haitians, Cubans, Russians and Slavik and the occasional normal American trying to survive in what is for all intensive purposes a foreign country.

This makes the tension a lot more than it should be....

Patti said...

I know I'm late to this post, but I liked it so much, I'm gonna link it on the 22nd. Thanks for the hope, brother. Not sure I'm this confident, but am praying you get to say, "I told you so."

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Patti! I hope so to! :)

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