Monday, June 4, 2012

Wisconsin Recall Primer (Ironic Version)

Tomorrow night is the Wisconsin recall. This is an interesting election, but purely for the sake of momentum. Ironically, while the Democrats and their union buddies forced this showdown, they are facing possible disaster if things go wrong, whereas the Republicans aren’t. Here’s what you need to know about Wisconsin and what it means for the rest of us.

Although the recall of Scott Walker has received the most media attention, there are actually two parts to the recall. The first is Scott Walker verses Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Walker appears safe at this point, as he leads by 6-9% in recent polls and his lead has grown steadily -- though Bluffington Post claims “internal polls” show the race is neck and neck. . . yeah, and I can levitate when no one is looking.

The second involves four GOP senators and Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Kleefisch is polling well against labor candidate and Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell. I suppose that’s good, except her job is meaningless. Of the four Senate seats, only one is considered a possibility to change hands. That is the seat of Sen. Van Wanggaard who is being challenged by Democrat John Lehman, who held the seat until 2010. If the Democrats do win that seat (or any of the other three) they will take control of the Senate.

So what does all this mean? That’s the laugher.

If Scott Walker were to lose, it would only mean an end to his ability to keep pushing Wisconsin to the right. It would not mean the repeal of anything he’s done because the Wisconsin House is dominated by Republicans and they can stop anything. So the reforms will go through either way. It might mean a loss of anti-union momentum nationally, but I doubt it because Wisconsin is a very pro-union state. Thus, a pro-union result should be expected and won’t have much meaning elsewhere, especially since it took everything the unions/Democrats/etc. could muster to barely win it.

But if Walker wins, this has HUGE meaning. First, it means that the voters of pro-union, liberal Wisconsin have endorsed a major shakeup in unionization laws. Under normal circumstances, this would be bad enough for unions, but the unions made this infinitely worse. They chose to make an example of Wisconsin by flexing all of their national might and, in the process, they put all of their credibility on the line. They sent in thousands of people and poured in millions of dollars. They called out all the celebrities, all the politicians, all the dirty lawsuits and false allegations, and all the death threats and union thuggery they could. In other words, they went all in. And yet, all their might couldn’t even win against “extreme” reforms in a pro-union state? The national message will be clear if Walker wins: the unions are finished, kill them off.

Democratic face saving is already beginning. Debbie Wasserman “Assbag” Schultz is trying to dismiss this recall as nothing more than “a dry run for November.” Uh huh, sure.

The unions and their leftist fellow travelers are trying to console themselves that they may win control of the Senate even if they can’t beat Walker. Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate claims that would be enough, “taking back the Senate majority is a huge deal.” He claims this would allow them to “undo” what Walker has done. But that’s laughably false.

For one thing, the Senate is done for the year, so taking the Senate now is meaningless. Indeed, current Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald says that all the Democrats could achieve would be to get new parking spaces and bigger offices before November -- they can’t pass legislation. And here’s the interesting bit. Because of redistricting, which will take effect in November, it looks like the Republicans are likely to gain seats in any event. Thus, a Democrat win would likely last only until November.

So the best the Democrats can do is stop further reforms if they beat Walker or get new offices/parking spaces until November if they defeat any of the Senators. Aim high, donks!

But the price for trying this, i.e. what the Democrats/unions have risked to win this “valuable” prize, is that they have exposed union impotence. If unions can’t win in Wisconsin, where will they win? Moreover, they will have completely demoralized the Democrats before November. Indeed, admits Democratic consultant Heather Colburn:

“People have put so much of not just their time, but their heart and passion into Walker’s race, and he’s been so vilified and people have so organized around him that I think there’s going to be some broken spirits and hearts, even if we take back the Senate.”
Even Politico warns that a sweep by Republicans would be a disaster for the left:
“At the same time, a GOP sweep of the four races and a Walker win would deal a devastating blow to the left. It would hand a powerful mandate to Walker and his Republican allies in the state Legislature and give the GOP a burst of adrenaline heading into the November elections.”
A Republican sweep (or even just a Walker victory) also will put Wisconsin into play on the national map in terms of Obama’s reelection, especially if the Republicans get a clean sweep. And if Wisconsin swings into the “maybe” column for Romney, then expect things to really fall apart for Obama. In that event, forget everything I said about this race coming down to Florida and Ohio. . . if Wisconsin goes red, we’re looking at a landslide.

Good times!

59 comments:

LawHawkRFD said...

Andrew: Another delicious irony here is that the unions have poured millions upon millions of dollars into Obama campaigns. He has responded by staying as far away from this recall/election as he possibly could. If the unions are successful in recallng Walker and taking the state senate, he will take credit for it. If they lose (which I consider likely), he will blame the defeat on everything and everyone but himself. He will then ask for more money from the unions, and may be very surprised by their failure to respond the way he would like. They won't oppose him, of course, but their enthusiasm for the Obamacrats will be greatly diminished.

I will add one little side note in answer to your question about "if the unions can't win in Wisconsin, where can they?" The answer is California. Our primary is on Tuesday as well, and the public employees unions (including the thuggish SEIU) have a stranglehold on California that will not go away any time in the foreseeable future. Our governor made one feeble attempt to make minor cuts to public employee union benefits and got cut off at the knees for even suggesting such a thing.

I really hope the unions and the Democrats (is there a difference?) lose in Wisconsin by a substantial margin, and take enough of the divine shine off Obama's countenance to give Romney a fighting chance in November.

tryanmax said...

In my gut I believe that either Wisconsin or Michigan will go red this election, if not both. Recent events in WI have me thinking "both" a little more lately. But don't count your chickens before they come home to roost...or something like that. ;)

In my estimation, even if the unions/Democrats (I'm being redundant, too) win this recall, the effort needed to do so still puts WI in the "maybe" column for Obama, meaning he'll have to further divide his campaign resources.

Tennessee Jed said...

great post, Andrew. I am truly hoping for a slice of the doublemint twins in June. A full Wisconsin win for the red team and a SCOTUS bang down of obamapelosicare!

Anthony said...

I think this recall is going to work out well for Romney.

Ordinary people shouldn't and probably don't share public sector unions' outrage over Walker's reforms.

Writer X said...

I am looking forward to tomorrow. Dry run for November? Let's hope it's a landslide. No doubt the Left will be bussing in all the crazies for the day. Should be interesting.

BevfromNYC said...

The public unions in other states have made a strategic error in getting involve in this because the locals have had enough of outsiders coming and influences. Our local transit/teacher/public union workers sent a large contingency of union troops to Wisconsin to knock on doors and were met by angry locals. It's kind of a tribal/family mentality - we can hate and say bad things about our politicians, but outsiders can't.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, I've come to believe that California is a lost cause. Everything is wrong with that state and they seem to keep going further and further in the wrong direction, like people trying to dig their way out of a hole.

But in terms of the question, I mean that more in the sense of what Republicans in other Midwestern, Southern, and even Eastern states will think about pushing ahead and weakening unions further. If the unions fail in Wisconsin, it's time to drive a stake through them everywhere we can.

I think you're absolutely right about Obama. He has proven himself to be a fair-weather friend here and I can't think that will endear him to the unions. They won't turn against him because they're stuck with him, but that doesn't mean they need to work too hard to help him or that they'll be sad to see him go.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, My gut tells me that Wisconsin will go for Romney and maybe Michigan and Pennsylvania. The odds are still against it, but it just seems that is how things are developing. So if that happens, then we are talking blowout.

In any event, this must be driving Team Obama crazy, and it's great they need to waste resources in states they should have had in the bag.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, June could end up being the month that broke Obama's back. That would be pretty neat -- especially with the economy apparently going south again.

I really hope for a Republican blow out tomorrow. That would be a huge signal to the country.

What I find so interesting here, though, is that looking at the possible outcomes, the Democrats/unions really made a horrible bet here. They took a real long-shot which would have gotten them almost nothing power-wise, even if they'd won, in exchange for risking all their credibility. This was a bad, bad move on their parts.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I think so too. Plus, there is something rather childish about a series of recalls, which will eventually turn people off and get them saying "enough."

I would obviously prefer a Republican blow out, but even if the Democrats get the Senate, the end result will be genuine humiliation for their side unless they can re-win it in November.

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, I'm sure they've rented a bunch of buses already... for "new voters" and "election workers" (read: thugs to cause problems).

This will be really interesting. Let's hope for a landslide. I don't expect that. I suspect the Democrats will get the one seat (and maybe two), but we'll see. Either way, this was not at all what was expected.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I think that's right. I don't like political calls or people coming to my door either. And when they are from out of state, I like them even less. What happens in Colorado is just not the business of interest groups from other states.

And I imagine too that the tone of the campaign didn't help because Wisconsin elected these people, and then the national team showed up and just vilified everyone, caused problems, cost the state a fortune, and in the process probably alienated a lot of people.

DUQ said...

This is hilarious! Great article Andrew. Talk about chickens coming home to roost ;)

ScyFyterry said...

I hope the Republicans win this across the board. I would love to see the reactions of the Democrats and their union buddies when everything falls apart on them. I'll bet they start infighting.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks DUQ! I think it is hilarious. They took this huge risk for nothing basically.

You guys and your roosting chickens! LOL!

AndrewPrice said...

Terry, I hope so too. And if the Republicans do win this across the board, then I think they will start infighting. It's almost inevitable.

AndrewPrice said...

By the way, the AP has already put out an article trying to claim that no matter what happens in Wisconsin, this doesn't mean anything for the other 49 states (at least they didn't say 56). Yeah, right. Here's the link:

LINK

ScyFyterry said...

Andrew, That's exactly what I expect from the AP. If the Democrats were winning, every single statement in that article would be reversed.

AndrewPrice said...

Terry, I had the same thought when I read it. If the Dems were winning, this would have been completely reversed.

ellenB said...

Interesting. I figured the Democrats had a bigger chance to acheive something. If all they can really do is take over the chamber in name and then wait until November, then this is a completely waste of time and taxpayer money -- another Democratic specialty.

ellenB said...

Terry, That's what the AP does, they slant everything toward the Democratic talking points.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew - That's because the Wisconsin public union legislation has already HAD an effect that has rippled through the other 49 (or 56) states...

rlaWTX said...

YAY!

Kit said...

To commemorate this unfolding disaster for the Democrarts I've invited the cast of Avenue Q to help summarize my feelings in exuberant song: LINK

(A mild NSFW warning)

AndrewPrice said...

Ellen, I did too when I first heard about the recalls. I figured they could completely turn things around if they'd won. And they probably could have if they'd been successful across the board -- House, Senate and Walker. But at this point, there isn't much they can do to turn anything around.

AndrewPrice said...

Ellen and Terry, That's what the AP does all right, they've become a mouthpiece for the left.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Isn't that the truth. Wisconsin set in motion laws which are now bankrupting states which followed its lead.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, Short, but sweet! Well said. :)

LawHawkRFD said...

Andrew: California's elections won't be entirely boring. We will probably find out if there is even a glimmer of hope that California can come back from the abyss. California's second largest city (San Diego) and third largest city (San Jose) both have Scott Walker-type public sector union initiatives on the ballot. Currently, public employees in the police and fire departments can retire at age 50 after fifteen years of service. They contribute nothing to their pensions, it's all paid by the taxpayers. And they get 90% of their annual salary at retirement for the rest of their lives. Both cities have huge deficits, largely resulting from those contracts. The ballot measures would raise the retirement age, lengthen the term of service for a full pension, and require the employees to pay a portion of their own retirement benefits. Needless to say, the unions have poured huge sums of forced union dues into defeating the two measures. A victory for these sensible measures could prove that there is still a hint of sanity left in California, and the two cities are not insignificant little villages. It would show the first sparks of a taxpayer rebellion. San
Francisco and Los Angeles are hopeless, but San Diego and San Jose could be a hopeful trend for the state as a whole. On the other hand, I'm not holding my breath.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, LOL! "When I see how sad you are, it sort of makes me... happy."

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, That is absolutely insane. All they need to do is work 15 years and they are taken care of for life??? Amazing.

I'm not hopeful about California. It has struck me that it's tipping further and further left as the days pass, and even though things are blowing up on them left and right, they just seem unwilling to change. In fact, if anything, they keep plowing further ahead with their leftist schemes. It's like a form of voter-insanity.

ellenB said...

Andrew, At this point, it sounds like petulance more than anything. I doubt petulance will play well with the public.

ellenB said...

Bev, NYC set union "workers" to Wisconsin? That angers me. I'll bet the NYC taxpayers ended up paying for this too?

Kit said...

Sorry Dems, human nature nothin' I can dooo! It's SCHADENFREUDE!
Makin' me feel glad that I'm not you.

Kit said...

"When I see how sad you are, it sort of makes me... happy."

Andrew, its ""When I see how sad you are, it sort of makes me... HAPPYYYYYYY!"

You exclaim "Happy" and drag out the "Y" on the end of Happy.
Like so: "HAPPYYYYYY!"

AndrewPrice said...

Ellen, Petulance never plays well, even with the MSM trying to cover for you. Look at Obama. He's a petulant a-hole, and the MSM tried covering for him... but they couldn't hide it forever.

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, Thanks for the tip on how to handle schadenfreude! LOL!

Yeah, it is human nature and there's nothing we can do about it really. Oh well. ;)

AndrewPrice said...

Ellen and Bev, I haven't followed that aspect specifically, but I understand that a lot of union people are given time off to go places like Wisconsin or Washington and participate in union attacks.

BevfromNYC said...

ellenB - If we have that many excess workers that we can afford to fly them to WI, then we need to have less workers on the payroll. And yes, I said "fly"...they flew them all to WI.

ellenB said...

Bev, Excellent point. If they can afford to lose those people, then the city doesn't need them.

Flying? Wow, that's expensive. Don't they usually rent charter buses for these sorts of things? They really should have put them in the back of trucks and shipped them by Teamster. I guess they have no union spirit?

Doc Whoa said...

Go Walker! :D

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, You've got to be kidding? Fly? Talk about shameless!

Great point about them not needing these workers if they can part with them for the election season. I would hope NYC considers this when they decide how many people they need to hire. Of course, we know they won't, but it would be nice.

AndrewPrice said...

Ellen, LOL! That would be fitting -- load them all in the back of a semi.

AndrewPrice said...

Doc, Go Obama... back to where you came from.

Tam said...

"Go Obama... back to where you came from."

Where's that? I'm still confused. Is it Kenya? Hawaii? Asia? One of the mystical states, 51-56?

I guess it doesn't matter, just as long as he goes AWAY.

155 more days...

AndrewPrice said...

Tam, I tend to think he came from Kenya (in Asia) or a large tupperware box. :)

Did you see the thing about his "author" biography, how he claimed to have been born in Kenya? So was he lying then or is he lying now?

Ahh... 155 more days. That makes me smile.

Tam said...

I did see that...it kind of vindicated the birthers. At least it gives credibility to their questions about his citizenship. And it gives more credibility to the questions about his credibility.

And, 155 days is not so much. We can hold on that long.

AndrewPrice said...

Tam, That it does. The whole birther thing is actually futile because the court has spoken, but it really does call into question where he was born and it makes him out as a liar to keep changing his story.

Ditto for Elisabeth Warren who can't make up her mind if she's native-American or not. It seems to come and go depending on how badly she needs it.

You can bet neither would be getting away with it if they had been Republicans.

rlaWTX said...

"a large tupperware box" - that location has my vote!
maybe that's the next place NYC needs to send their excess union workers.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, That gets my vote too! They can store him next to the Arc of the Covenant for the next time we need someone to lead us to failure.

I'm sure it's good for storing union works too. :)

rlaWTX said...

LOL!

if that looks anything like my g'parents' plasticware storage, we'd never find it in time for the evil plan of failure to work right! sounds perfect!

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, That's exactly what I imagine it would look like... and no, we'd probably never find it again. Oh well. ;)

StanH said...

We shall see, it looks good now.

Patti said...

i'm late to this thread and haven't read the comments, so forgive me if i repeat what has already been said, but man is this an opportunity to push it the unions faces. if walker win...ohmeohmyoh!....it's a doomsday toll for these goons. praying for victory.

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, We'll see. You never know until the election result come in, but right now this all seems to be pointing in the right direction.

AndrewPrice said...

Patti, I agree. This is a really a chance to bring doomsday to the unions. I don't know if we'll get it, but I'm hopeful.

Individualist said...

Andrew I agree with you that the irony you point is delicious but there is one thing more that I like about tbis and one thing that I think is a missed opportunity.

First the good... Yes the Dems poured millions into the One's coffers but they were doing that anyways. They however had to pour millions into getting the petitions signed to have this election and then millions to fight it. This is millions they do not have to give to the One.

Now the missed opportunity. And I state this not just about my outrage at Dem Congressmen in Wisconsin but in Texas a few years back when the had to vote on redistricitng.

This is the practice of leaving the state and staying in a hotel room incognito in an attempt to deny the legislature the ability to have a quarum for vote.

I think that as part of this recall the GOP should have added language in a referendum or ammendment to the Wisconsin constituion that sad that should a member flee the state after being ordered by the legislative body to return because his actions are delaying legislation that member automatically resigns his office immediately and is no longer considered to have residency in the state for 10 years for the purpose of being able to run for any state or local office.

This would even if it did not pass highlight the reprehensible behaviour of the democrats in the Wisconsin legislature who in my opinion are the ones who should be removed from office.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I think that's a shameful practice, but I'm not sure if pushing that is a good idea or not. I'd have to look a lot more into it to see how it would play out and how it polls. The last thing you want to do is excite the Democrats to show up.

By the way, I understand over $50 million was spent on Wisconsin so far. That's a ton of money that can't be used anywhere else now.

AndrewPrice said...

FYI, Obama has finally tweeted his support for the Democrats in Wisconsin. He is absolutely trying to keep his nose out of this and that's hilarious!

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