Thursday, February 2, 2012

Polls: Doom Hangs Over Obama Campaign

It won’t surprise you to hear that Obama faces a difficult challenge in getting re-elected. It might surprise you, however, just how difficult that challenge may be. I’ve been saying for some times that Obama is looking at a potential landslide loss. Now Gallup agrees with me.

Gallup is not exactly conservative friendly when it comes to polling. In fact, they can always be counted on to skew things 3-5% to the left. So when they predict doom for a Democrat, it bears noticing. And right now they’re predicting doom for Obama. Consider these findings:
● Obama’s approval rating averaged 44% in 2011. This is down from 47% in 2010, which resulted in historic carnage for his party in the November 2010 elections.

● At the start of 2011, Obama’s approval ratings topped 50% in only 16 states.

● By the third quarter of 2011, this had fallen to 10 states.

● Obama’s approval ratings rose only in Wyoming, Connecticut and Maine.
This spells doom for Obama. For one thing, Obama has horrible poll numbers: 44% just isn’t enough to get re-elected. Moreover, they have been consistently low throughout his administration -- confirming the trend. What’s worse, even as his national numbers have largely stabilized (or at least their descent has slowed), his state by state numbers continue to sink. And it is the state by state numbers that really matter because of our electoral college system. In other words, Obama may win California by 17%, but every vote after 50% +1 is wasted. Hence, all that matters is the number of states he can win, and not the margin of victory in any state.

And when Gallup looked at the state by state numbers, it found that if Obama wins only the states where his popularity exceeds his unpopularity (i.e. his approval > his disapproval), he will lose the 2012 election to GenericRepublican in an electoral landslide of 323 electoral votes to 215 electoral votes. Here’s their map showing how the election would look:


Moreover, it turns out that Obama doesn’t actually have the money advantage that people assumed. Remember talk of the “billion dollar war chest”? It may be a lot smaller than that. Indeed, various people who analyze the pace of fundraising say that Obama is actually running behind Bush’s pace from 2004, and that Obama is likely to end up with only $250 million. . . one quarter of the one billion dollars people expected.

But he still has more money than Romney, right? Not really.

Obama has $81.8 million cash on hand. The DNC has $12.6 million. Outside PACs favoring Obama have only about $4 million. It comes to around $98.3 million.

Romney, by comparison, has only $19.9 million in cash. But his super PAC has another $23.6 million. The RNC has $20 million. Along with other groups, this comes to around $94 million.

Further, Obama’s ability to use the bully pulpit of the White House is fading fast. His SOTU speech drew his worst ratings yet and was down 20% from the year before, which was down 20% from the year before, etc. All told, Obama is drawing about half the number of viewers he drew originally and an amazing 27% of those who tuned in left his SOTU within five minutes of starting. This is just more evidence that the people have stopped listening.

Between low ratings and steady poll numbers, I think the public has simply tuned him out. And if that’s the case, then no amount of money will help him. Good luck, President One-Term.

58 comments:

LawHawkRFD said...

Andrew: Everything you say makes perfect sense and my brain tells me you're right. But I still have that horrible, unsettling, nagging feeling that somehow this lowlife is going to pull it off again. I think I'll go and pray now.

DUQ said...

This makes my happy.

Also, did anyone see that Trump made a surprise endorsement and picked Romney? I put zero credence in Trump's picks, but this surprised me.

T-Rav said...

Hmmm. I would expect Wisconsin to go red before Oregon, but...still, it's an endearing picture to behold. Like LawHawk, though, I have a nagging fear that Obama is going to scrape through.

But Trump has endorsed Romney, so I guess it'll all be okay.

Jocelyn said...

I agree with LawHawk. I have this unsettling, nagging feeling to. And I feel like you can't underestimate the guy.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, It's always possible this will change, but I actually don't think it will.

Obama keeps going down, not up. And there really isn't anything coming up to give him a chance to turn it around -- 2012 will be a non-event legislatively.

I also think people have simply stopped listening.

And even beyond that, his instincts are all wrong. Everything he tries alienates people.

The one wildcard is the Republican candidate and I frankly suspect the true wildcard there are finished.

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, I figured it was time for a feel-good post. :)

Yeah, the Trump thing is strange. But keep in mind that he's a frontrunner so once he knows which way the winds blow, he likes to run out there and claim to have gotten there first.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I would have too. The whole left coast is finished. But Wisconsin also has been a pretty consistently leftist place. That's why I was shocked that Gov. Walker and the rest did what they did.

Yeah, Trump's endorsement seals the deal for me! LOL! Actually, it pains me a lot that a guy like Trump has any relevance in the Republican race. Something has gone really wrong when Trump's opinion matters.

AndrewPrice said...

Jocelyn, I think until the votes are cast and it's all over, then none of us should rest easy. But I do think Obama continues to show "negative momentum," i.e. he's moving in the wrong direction. And I don't think he even knows how to turn this around nor would he do what needs to be done (even if the public believes him).

That said, these things always tighten up before the election and the polls will actually show him winning at one point or another (they always do), but I think it's too little too late. His 40% numbers have been too consistent and I think they show that the public has made up its mind.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, speaking of The Donald, here's an oldie but a goodie on his political opinions. Link Trump is, and has always been, a trimmer.

CrisD said...

haha! What could go wrong?

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Nice, so "Republican" Trump wanted Bush impeached. That makes sense.


(P.S. Did you finally get my e-mail? It seems to have bounced back 4 times now.)

AndrewPrice said...

CrisD, LOL! I know, it's hard to see how the Republicans could possibly mess this one up, right?

Actually, this really is good news because this election will be a referendum on Obama, and this is solid proof that he's failing.

I honestly don't know what he can do between now and November to fix this?

ScyFyterry said...

This so makes me smile. :D

Did you see that Newt is now planning to sue Florida? I guess that's the new Republican way -- sue when you lose.

Ed said...

How in the world could the dollars be so far off from a billion to $250 million? I'd fire that accountant!

This is good news, but like the rest, I am queasy. On the plus side, I don't see the Republicans sitting on their laurels (if they have any).

Ed said...

Newt suing Florida and having sued Virginia tells us a lot about what Newt thinks of the rules doesn't it?

I like Drudge's headline on Newt: "You're Fired!"

AndrewPrice said...

Terry, This should make you smile. It's not conclusive or anything (obviously) but this shows that the 2010 trend continues.

T-Rav said...

ScyFy, from my scattered reading of GOP rules, I think Newt actually does have a case here. Technically, all primaries held before a certain date (April 1, I think) are supposed to be proportional representation, not winner-take-all. However, when Florida got penalized for moving up its primary date, it was stripped of half its delegates, and I'm guessing the manner of apportioning delegates got messed up in the shuffle. (For the record, New Hampshire did the same thing but remained proportional.)

So probably, yeah, Florida should have divvied up its count among the delegates. That said, Newt does come across as a whiner who's trying to manipulate the rules when he doesn't get his way. And I'm just curious; if he feels this way about it, why didn't he say anything before the primary was held?

Ed said...

My comments have vanished? Was it something I said?

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, I had to fish your commments out of the spam filter. Several people have been running into this lately.

When you make multiple comments (especially back to back) and when they are small comments, the spam filter thinks you're spam.

I advise everyone to try not to post comments back to back. That will help you avoid the spam filter.

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, On the money, I think what happened is that people looked at his peak period and extrapolated to there and then added an "excitement factor." But the excitement factor is now actually a "turnoff factor" and you should never judge the long term by examining a peak period. So what was one billion because a quarter of that.

My guess is he'll eventually get around $350 before the election is over, but not nearly so much that the Republicans will be swamped.

Also, money isn't everything.

EricP said...

"Good luck"? Don't you blaspheme in here! Don't you blaspheme in here!!!

Sorry, I know this is your jernt, but I find it difficult to not channel some Aretha Franklin in cases like this.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav and Terry, I just realized that's a topic Lawhawk is addressing in the morning, so I won't say anything about it now.

But I will say that the argument T-Rav makes about why Newt didn't say anything before is exactly what the Virginia court used to strike down his argument in Virginia, i.e. he should have complained about the rules before he lost, not after.

AndrewPrice said...

Eric, LOL! Nice Blues Brothers reference! Bravo!

And let me be clear, I'm not actually wishing him luck... that was meant as a sarcastic sendoff. In no way should karma, luck or any other supernatural force see this as an endorsement of anything except ill will toward our Kenyan Overlord and his attempt to steal another term.

Tennessee Jed said...

one of the things in our favor is that there are basically ten battleground states which will decide the election, and B.O. is below 50% in EVERY ONE of them. The problem is that the election is not being contested today, but in 9 months. Look, this probably won't be a landslide. The media will do everything it can to inflate good economic news and ignore unfavorable news. It will try and destroy the Republican candidate. So it is o.k. to worry. It is not a fait accompli, but it sure is not even close to a sure thing for B.O. Remember, without even having to run on his record, and with Yosemite Sam as an opponent, he was behind until the financial markets meltdown. People feel like he is Tiger Woods--over-exposed.

tryanmax said...

Also, money isn't everything.

♪♫ As long as we can make 0bama leave ♪♫
♪♫ I'd much rather be ♫
♪♫ Forever in blue jeans. ♪♫

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, That sums it up nicely.

1. It is perfectly legitimate to worry.

2. I'm just trying to cheer everybody up a bit with some good news. :) (go team!)

3. The good news is that Obama is starting this race with a huge handicap, including long term unpopularity and a fundraising machine which shows that the smart money is not backing him as was expected.

Could he turn it around? Sure. But this will be the first race in his life where he fights a legitimate challenger -- all the others have imploded on their own. And I don't think he's up to the task.

That said, you are right about the MSM. They will start putting out articles claiming that happy times are here again -- just as they are suddenly claiming the job market is "healing." But I think it's too little, too late, and the reality is that too many people are hurting to fall for the MSM line -- not to mention blogs will continue to get the news out.

AndrewPrice said...

I see tryanmax continuing the sequined jumpsuit approach to politics! LOL!

tryanmax said...

Andrew, correct me if I'm wrong, but we are reliving the late '70s, are we not?

Tennessee Jed said...

In past elections, B.O. has had his Luca Brassi (David Axelrod) sweep his opponents from the field by personally destroying them. Rest assured he will try and do something like that if he could, but it will be a lot harder

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, It sure as heck feels that way:

1. Gas prices are insane.
2. Failed President.
3. Nation in the dumps.
4. Ron Paul talking about the gold standard.
5. Iranian problems.
6. Rise of China (formerly Japan)
7. Argentina and Britain preparing for Falklands II.

etc.

Yep.

All we need now are bellbottoms and Disco II.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, He's also been lucky to run unopposed several times and then he ran against Hillary who didn't recognize she was in a competitive campaign and against John McCain who not only is a horrible campaigner but has since said that he felt honored to lose to Obama... W...T... F?

This will be the first time he's really faced someone intent on beating him. And with Romney, there's just not going to be the kind of dirt that Dirty David Asslerod needs. Romney is just not the kind of guy to have mistresses or do blow off the body of a dead hooker.

T-Rav said...

"Kenyan Overlord"....Andrew, I would like to point out that you, sir, are a racist. Again.

AndrewPrice said...

No, T-Rav, I'm an overlordist. :)

Besides, are you telling me he's not from Kenya? I say prove it!

Let's face it, Obama is the full-realized version of an internet scammer. Someone at the White House responded to one of these "Help, I am the President of Kenya and I must smuggle much money into your country, can you please make my cousin Obama your president and I will share the profits with you." And we're paying the price.

Look what happened to the US credit rating once they got a hold of our account numbers!!

This explains EVERYTHING!

StanH said...

Yeah, I saw the same poll, and though it would seem to say landslide my bet if it’s Romney, just a win. However if Romney can find his inner Reagan it may even be worse for Barry. Maybe Wisconsin, Michigan (Romney’s place of birth, father was the Governor), NJ (Christie), Maine, Oregon, and now you’re getting in the Gippers territory, 1980 46 to 4…we’ll see.

Though there may be parody with the money, Barry will have 90% of the press in his corner.

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, I would say at least 90%. The MSM should have to declare itself as part of the Democratic campaign machine. "I'm Barack Obama, and I approved tonight's newscast."

I could see these numbers tip either way. If a solid Reaganesque campaign is run, I could see the 46-4 blow out you are talking about. But I could also see a lot closer election depending on how the winds blow.

I think the big key will be Republican unity. If Republicans band together behind the nominee and present a solid front, Obama's in trouble. If they fracture, that gives him openings.

CrisD said...

Check out "What does Obama do all day?" by Mickey Kaus on Daily Caller... Its a scream and I think the rats may be deserting the ship, Andrew!

StanH said...

Count me in the unity corner. I don’t care who the Republican nominee is, I will be behind that person 100%. I’ve already started defending Romney on other blogs from the right. You can bet your booties the onslaught from the left will be withering, so I hope our candidate (Romney) is ready to fight. If he fights he wins big, if he assumes the gentlemen’s prose against Barry’s sleaze machine, I think he still wins, but by a nose. I hope he brings his killer instinct that he revealed against Newt in Florida, for the general…we’ll see.

AndrewPrice said...

Cris, That really does show Obama as a fool, doesn't it? And I doubt it's far from the truth. I've seen no evidence that Obama is more than an empty suit with no ability to care about details.

Here's the link: LINK

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, I'm getting the feeling that Romney has learned to fight. I don't think that was true in 2008, but I see it now. He's not afraid to throw punches and climb down into the mud and fight back.

I think Obama is in for a real challenge this time.

And I suspect the party will unify against whoever it is when push finally comes to shove.

rlaWTX said...

As I am reading through these comments, I am listening to Neil Diamond... so "forever in blue jeans" made me laugh!
[and that was my parents' song!]

It's kinda funny how one election can change our lexicon so firmly - "red" and "blue" states... but since that's our color, YAY for red!

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, That still bothers me. Red is for the left. I have no idea how we ended up being "red." Actually I know -- the MSM just labeled us as red. But it's ridiculous.

As for the song, yeah, I've got that one stuck in my head now too! LOL!

rlaWTX said...

now playing is "Brother Love's Traveling Salvation Show"...

from what I read it was just a random, what shows up on TV kind of decision - that became bigger than the sum of it's parts...

AndrewPrice said...

It sounds like you've got the All-Neil Diamond Channel going?


Speaking of music and the 1970s, I am indeed sad to hear about Don Cornelius. I didn't watch Soul Train much as a kid, but I did watch it some times, and it's always sad when a life ends that way. RIP

AndrewPrice said...

Here's an interesting article form Politico which outlines some of the other factors Obama is facing in his re-election bid. They see trouble too.

LINK

CrisD said...

Great stuff in that Politico article, Andrew. He's definitely wounded. It'll be interesting to see what the job scene does this yeat (by the way Mitt and his billionaire friends better freakin' get it right if they get the reins)

AndrewPrice said...

Cris, I agree. I think it's an interesting article that really touches upon the handicaps Obama will have... and they are considerable.

Again, I'm not saying he's finished, but he definitely faces a serious uphill challenge.

And I agree, it's time for a lot of these billionaire buddies to help Romney and to help the cause of capitalism in general. There are too many Warren Buffetts and George Soros's out there supporting cronyism. It's time to Romney's buddies took a stand.

Koshcat said...

It wouldn't surprise me to see even states such as Wisconsin, Maine, and even New Jersey flip, especially if Walker wins the recall and Christie continues to gain support. You're making me all giddy! Now I shall drive home happily in the SNOW.

AndrewPrice said...

Koshkat, It's starting to snow here, but we're not supposed to get nearly as much as Denver is -- though it is supposed to snow for the next 24+ hours.

I too could see states like New Jersey and Wisconsin fall into the Republican column this time and that could be very, very good for us if it results in coattails in the Senate!

Eric P said...

>>All we need now are bellbottoms and Disco II.>>

Unfortunately, all we have is Van Halen treading water in a sea of retarded sexuality and bad poetry while they recycle songs from the Carter era.

Words I never thought I'd write in the same sentence: "Van Halen" and "unfortunately." OK, just during their brief Gary Cherone phase.

AndrewPrice said...

Eric, That is kind of a sad statement, isn't it?

Unfortunately, I've noticed with many rockers that there comes a point where they simply can't do it anymore and they shouldn't try. But a lot of them don't want to let it go.

EricP said...

I don't necessarily mind band/acts sticking around past their expiration dates, mainly because you don't know when Rick Rubin will step in and resuscitate their careers (since thanks for Metallica, Johnny Cash and Neil Diamond, Rick!). AC/DC pulled off a great twist on their 3-chord magic with their last album, too. Also don't begrudge the John Lee Hookers and Buddy Guys who kept pluggin' till the end. After all, they're musicians and what else do they typically know?

Former wunderkind Eddie just seems spent and fried at this stage, which is really too bad. Guess it wasn't his singers with the "LSD" (Lead Singer Disease) after all. Pathetic soundtrack for the Carter/Obama era seems semi-fitting, though.

AndrewPrice said...

Eric, I don't begrudge the ones who can do it. The problem is that too many can't do it and they just won't stop -- they also often end up just replaying their hits, like a perpetual greatest hits tour.

A good example is Blondie. I saw Debbie Harry on A&E a couple years ago when they had a series of live concerts from 1980s stars, and she had no ability to hit any of the higher notes. She tried to cover that up by pointing the mic at the audience for those notes or skipping the words, and it just came across as pathetic.

It was one of those moments like when you watch a great football player who is playing that one final year too many and just looks spent and too old for the game.

EricP said...

Yup. At least Sting and Bob Seger gave in to reality and brought their songs down a register or three.

AndrewPrice said...

True. It's all a matter of realizing what your limits are and then trying to stay within them.

Individualist said...

Andrew

The other seven states are not showing on your map.

They should be blue and evidently will have enough electorial votes to allow Obama to win the election by two.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I've looked into this whole 57 states thing and I can't quite prove it, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Obama might be wrong about that number. ;)

CrispyRice said...

This was very heartening. Thank you, Andrew!

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Crispy, it should be! :)

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