Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Senate Races Update

You may have heard about a little thing called the 2010 election. Let’s see how things are going in the Senate. A total of 36 Senate seats are up for grabs. Of those, 18 are currently held by Republicans, the other 18 are held by Democrats. Those numbers are going to change.

Safe Republican Incumbents

Richard C. Shelby -- Alabama
John McCain -- Arizona
Johnny Isakson -- Georgia
Michael D. Crapo -- Idaho
Charles E. Grassley -- Iowa
David Vitter -- Louisiana
Tom Coburn -- Oklahoma
Richard Burr -- North Carolina
Jim DeMint -- South Carolina
John Thune -- South Dakota

Republican Seats Leaning/Safe Republican
42% Joe Miller (R)
27% Lisa Murkowski (I)
25% Scott McAdams (D)
41% Marco Rubio (R)
30% Charlie Crist (I)
23% Kendrick Meek (D)
61% Jerry Moran (R)
28% Lisa Johnston (D)
54% Rand Paul (R)
39% Jack Conway (D)
53% Roy Blunt (R)
43% Robin Carnahan (D)
New Hampshire
51% Kelly Ayotte (R)
44% Paul Hodes (D)
49% Rob Portman (R)
41% Lee Fisher (D)
58% Mike Lee (R)
28% Sam Granato (D)

Democratic Seats Leaning/Safe Republican
65% John Boozman (R)
27% Blanche Lincoln (D)
50% Dan Coats (R)
34% Brad Ellsworth (D)
North Dakota
69% John Hoeven (R)
25% Tracy Potter (D)
49% Pat Toomey (R)
41% Joe Sestak (D)
51% Ron Johnson (R)
44% Russ Feingold (D)

Democratic Toss Up/Undecided Seats
47% Barbara Boxer (D)
43% Carly Fiorina (R)
49% Ken Buck (R)
45% Michael Bennet (D)
41% Alexi Giannoulias (D)
37% Ron Kirk (R)
48% Sharron Angle (R)
48% Harry Reid (D)
Republican Seats Leaning Democratic

Democratic Seats Leaning/Safe Democratic
53% Richard Blumenthal (D)
44% Linda McMahon (R)
53% Chris Coons (D)
42% Christine O’Donnell (R)
New York
49% Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
39% Joe DioGuardi (R)
51% Patty Murray (D)
46% Dino Rossi (R)
Safe Democratic Incumbents
Daniel Inouye -- Hawaii
Barbara Mikulski -- Maryland
Chuck Schumer -- New York
Ron Wyden -- Oregon
Patrick Leahy -- Vermont
The Senate currently sits at 59 Democrats to 41 Republicans. Interestingly, none of the 18 Republican seats up for grabs appear to be leaning toward the Democrats. Of the 18 Democratic seats, nine are considered safe, four remain up for grabs, and five appear all but lost. Thus, the Republicans should do no worse than 54 Democrats to 46 Republicans. Assuming that the toss ups go as they currently stand only gives the Republicans one more seat: 53 Democrats to 47 Republicans.

This is worse than our prior estimates because the Democrats have improved their changes in Nevada, Delaware and Connecticut. However, I still suspect Reid will lose in Nevada because he has yet to break the 50% mark and undecideds tend to go against the incumbent. Also, I suspect there will be a 2-3% boost for Republicans across the board based on voter enthusiasm. Even with this, however, it still appears that the Republicans will do no better than 52-48.

So let’s hope the enthusiasm stays high for 2012.


Tennessee Jed said...

A very timely and handy update. Thanks, Andrew!

AndrewPrice said...

You're welcome Jed. I figured it would be a good thing to gather all of this in one place so we can see where the good, the bad and the ugly are at the moment.

I think there will be a couple surprises (probably California), but it's good to know where things stand.

Ed said...

That's a bit sobering. I was hoping for at least a 50/50 split. That would put Joey B to work.

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, Joey B has a job. He's Obama's court jester. He's also "second in line" for the Presidency! LOL!

T_Rav said...

Hey Andrew! So this is where you and LawHawk went after leaving BH.

Although I really like this analysis you put up, I do have a few quibbles about it. One, you left out the races in WA and WV, which are very close, and in WV I think Raese has a good chance of knocking off Manchin.

Also, I think (and this is just my opinion) you're selling the toss-ups a bit short. I think several of them, such as California and Nevada, will break our way in the end, based on some hearsay evidence I've read around the blogosphere. For instance, Kirk's finally started getting solid support outside Chicago, and the governor's race is such a runaway for the GOP there's sure to be a coattail effect--even in Illinois.

Sorry, I don't mean to nitpick, I just wanted to point out there's still a very real chance that we can get 51 seats on Nov. 2.

AndrewPrice said...

T_Rav, Yep, this is where we went! I try to get back to BH every once in awhile, but life has just been very busy lately. . . so I haven't been there in a week or so.

Feel free to quibble! We're happy to hear everyone's thoughts!

I am hearing that the momentum in Washington has been growing in our direction, so you could be right about that. I honestly doubt Manchin will lose. I've had contacts with WVa and he's a very strong candidate in the state. We'll see though, this could be a magical year.

I actually think several of these races will continue to shift in our direction, but at this point, this is what the polls say.

So it might very well end up better than 52-48. We can hope! :-)

CrispyRice said...

Great article! Thanks!

AndrewPrice said...

You're welcome Crispy.

Unknown said...

Andrew: I'm getting slightly breathless seeing polls indicating that we Californians may have a chance at taking both the governorship and the Senate seat.

A recent California poll showed the same figures as yours for Boxer/Fiorina, only reversed. I just saw Fiorina in an interview, and she's far more fiscally conservative than I had thought, and handled herself very well.

Of course, there's still Pelosi, and only Karl Marx or Groucho Marx could beat her, and they're both dead. But at least I'll get to see the frozen look of horror on her face when she is no longer Speaker.

Unknown said...

T-Rav: I was worried that nobody had noticed we were gone. We've both tried to post from time-to-time at BH, but Andrew has been busy with his career, and I'm still recovering from the move from San Francisco to rural Caliente. Glad to see you here, and I hope you'll join us many times in the future.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, I think you're right about Pelosi. The only thing that could unseat her would be if someone took the corpses of Karl and Groucho, rammed them together and reanimated them. Zombie Marx might have a chance!

These numbers came from Rassmussen, but like you, I've seen others that are reversed. I suspect that Fiorina will beat Boxer in a nailbiter. But either way, it's going to be an interesting night, that's for sure!

StanH said...

I know you’re laying out the polls as they are, I have a sneaking suspicion that there will be surprises in the conservative favor. If the Reagan democrats vote Republican it will be epic, we’ll see. As in ’80 pollsters had Carter winning a week out, but the reality was a 49 state landslide for Reagan. And though this is a midterm we have anecdotes pointing to a slaughter, Brown in Mass., Christie in NJ, once again we’ll see.

T_Rav said...

LawHawk: It's been a while, but the old guard still remembers and misses you guys. I've been reading here for a while, this is just the first time I actually posted. But I'll be sure to do so more in the future.

By the way, what does the RFD in your title refer to? I've been trying to figure this out for a while.

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, We'll see. Like you, I suspect there will be a continued shift toward the conservative candidates in most of these states, and I suspect that voter turnout will be key. I gave an estimate of 2-3%, but it could be as high as 5%, which literally could shift even safe seats.

It's going to be one interesting night, so stick around! :-)

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Glad to hear you'll be commenting more! Lawhawk moved from San Francisco recently out into the country -- Caliente. So he adopted the RFD as in Mayberry RFD.

Unknown said...

T-Rav: Andrew's an earlier riser than I am. So he got to the RFD answer before I did. I had made a few jokes about my moving from the middle of a liberal urban center to a very rural conservative high desert/low mountain area. I told some of the people at the site that since SF no longer made any sense, I had to find another handle. BevFrom NYC casually threw RFD at me, and when I had finished laughing, I changed to it. From the Belly of the Beast to Rural Free Delivery. Talk about culture-shock. LOL

T_Rav said...

LawHawk: Ah-ha. Probably should have occurred to me earlier, but I'm slow about things like that sometimes. Glad to see you escaped Nancy's clutches, and hopefully you're enjoying the rural life. It's the best.

Ponderosa said...

Made me laugh...

AR is "leaning"/safe 65-27 against the incumbent.


52-48 seems a touch pessimistic.
WV, NY1, & WA are all in play. They may not stay that way but it is extra $$ not spent elsewhere.

I'd give the GOP plus 5% on Election Day for all races except for the west +3% there.

And an extra 2% for the GOP candidate if the Prez campaigns in the state. Heh.

I'll go with 52-48...GOP.

AndrewPrice said...

Ponderosa, We should start a pool! :-)

AndrewPrice said...

P.S. I love the idea about +2% if Obama comes campaign for them!

Ponderosa said...

Feingold dodges Obama

McMahon within margin of error

Raese ahead of Manchin per Rasmussen

O'Donnell only 9 back

Is it just me or are things really quiet?

AndrewPrice said...

Ponderosa, The evidence is there every day that things are just falling apart for the Democrats. The latest is a Democratic candidate who is running an add pointing out that he was friends with George Bush.

The tidal wave seems to keep getting bigger and bigger.

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