False Analogy Coming Up

On May 6th, the British will hold an election. The prevailing wisdom says the Conservatives are going to win. I think that’s wrong. If I’m right, and the Conservatives lose, expect our media to go insane trying to equate that upset with what they hope will happen here in November. In fact, expect to find yourself awash in a tidal wave of “bad omen for Republicans” stories. Don’t believe it.

Let’s start by explaining why everyone thinks the Conservatives will win. Labour’s been in power since 1997 and they are worn out. All of their mistakes have caught up to them, and the people are sick of them. They spent too much, reformed too little and let bureaucracy spin out of control. Add in that Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, is neither telegenic, nor politically savvy, and he’s prone to nasty streaks and gloom, and you have a serious recipe for failure. And polls have confirmed this, with Labour trailing the Conservatives by as much as 21%. Hence, it’s inevitable.

Thus, should Labour win the election, the media will call it a miracle. They will frame this as an “utter rejection of Conservative ideas”, and will tell us that this represents “an end to the shift to the right” that the world has undertaken during the past two years, and a “rebirth” of the left. Then our media will pick this up and will start trying to draw an analogy here: unpopular government, makes hard decisions, but people are “really” upset about the economy, which is getting better. . . = surprise Democratic victory!!!

But don’t be fooled because there is more to this story than is being currently told. Indeed, I wouldn’t be suggesting that the Conservatives are likely to lose if there weren’t.

First, the Conservatives are not exactly all that great of a party. The British haven’t liked them since Margaret Thatcher was forced out of office. Since that time, they’ve had a succession of bland leaders who stood for nothing, except the disowning of Thatcherism. That’s left them with little real support. Moreover, their new leader, David Cameron, is hardly inspirational. He’s milquetoast defined. He stands for nothing. He’s the ultimate “me too only not as much” type leader. Indeed, he proposes to do everything Labour is doing, only not as fast. That makes them very different than the Republicans. Indeed, whereas we face left versus right in November, the British May elections will be a battle royale between left and further left.

Secondly, in the past twelve years, the British people have slunk into dependence. Many more of them than ever rely on the government for their survival. Their entrepreneurial class is gone. Foreigners run their companies, those that are left, and industry has all but vanished. In the place of the once industrious British people, a whole class of angry white trash has sprung up that demands the government support its binge-drinking, knife-wielding, non-working habits. Thus, the English electorate is more like that of New Jersey than that of the United States, and elections there have little meaning for elections here.

Third, that 21% number isn’t what it appears to be. That number occurred at the height of the financial crisis. Since that time, it’s fallen to around a 9% lead for the Conservatives. This is partially the result of the financial crisis lessening, but also partially fatigue. Voters have been told for two years now that the Conservatives would win the election. People tire of what they assume to be a sure thing and they move on, which hurts the Conservatives and gives Labour a second chance -- basically, they peaked too soon.

But no doubt, you’re still thinking that 9% should be a pretty huge victory right? Actually, no. There is a quirk in the English electoral system that favors Labour because of the way their districts are established and the utter lack of competitiveness by the Conservatives in Scotland. What this translates into is that the Conservatives need to poll about 11% higher than Labour nationally to guarantee a Conservative victory. If the election were held today, it is estimated that their 9% lead would translate only into a draw in Parliament.

Talking all of this into account, there is a very good chance that the Conservatives will win the popular vote, but still not win the government. Or, perhaps, they will win the government but just barely. But in either event, the result tells us nothing about our own elections in November.

So don’t be fooled, when you start seeing articles asking what Labour’s resurgence means for the Democrats.

It doesn't mean squat.