Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Tonight's Republican Debate

Tonight is the first Republican debate which includes Rootin’ Tutin’ Rick Perry. This could actually be the most important debate because Perry has a chance to all but win the race with a command performance. Even if he doesn’t, some of the others are facing irrelevance if they don’t get noticed tonight. Here is your playbook for the debate. Feel free to share your hopes and dreams for the debate. Go ahead and gamble on the likely winners and losers -- house fee is 2%. And check back later for updates anyone feels like posting.

● Rick Perry: To borrow a Texanism, Perry needs to show that he's not all hat and no cattle. If Perry puts on a strong performance tonight and shows himself to be more comfortable on stage than the rest, then the race is all but over. But if he stumbles, that could be catastrophic for him as it may expose him as a Paper Texan. In other words, it could be nominee or bust tonight. To prove himself, Perry needs to show a command of national issues and an ability to take the expected pounding from the rest without getting flustered.

● What's his name. . . that other guy. . .: Mitch Romski needs to remind people that he was once a front-runner and he needs to hope that Perry and Bachman kill each other in a duel, because short of their deaths, he’s not going to win the primary. Alternatively, the Romster needs to really take command of this debate and show that he’s got a stronger personality than Perry and more passion than Bachmann. But I honestly don’t think he has that in him. He’s a technocrat with moderate instincts. Indeed, take a look at the economic plan he released yesterday: it has 59 points and none of them are all that interesting. . . it's like reading a tax form. Good luck trying to get anyone with a pulse to listen to that. So watch for the Romster to just try to not make a fool of himself and watch for signs he's stuffed voodoo dolls in his pockets.

● Michelle Bachmann: Bachmann needs to show she's still relevant now that Rick Perry has sucked the air out of the room. In the past few weeks, she lost all her momentum to Perry. She's disappeared in the polls. She’s raised questions about her health (migraines), and she continued to make a series of gaffes that let the media portray her as a nutjob. Now her campaign staff is resigning at the worst possible time. She needs to come up with an incredible economic plan and she needs to mercilessly butcher Rick Perry tonight if she wants to avoid irrelevance.

● Ron Paul: No real expectations here. Paul will do his thing and will win the internet polls, and no one will care.

● Jon Huntsman: I've got two thoughts on Jon-boy Huntsman. First, he put out a fairly decent economic plan the other day, but I don't believe it because his economic plan doesn’t match his record. That’s why Huntsman keeps polling less than 1% support among Republicans and why he’s not going to do any better any time soon -- because he has a record that is counter to Republican beliefs.

Here’s my other thought on Huntsman. Having spent his time blasting the Republican Party and basically praising Obama, and clearly running so far to the left that no one except an idiot (like Jeb Bush's boy) would support him on the Republican ticket, I find myself wondering if Huntsman might not be an Obama plant? This is pure speculation, but would it surprise anyone if Huntsman replaced Biden on the Obama ticket at some point next summer in the name of "bipartisanship"? Watch for a lot of winking from Huntsman into the camera every time he praises the O.

● Herman Cain: The Hermanator is playing for the future. His best bet this time around would be to get the nod as VP. To that end, I recommend he go on the offensive and prove he can take down Rick Perry. The role of the VP is attack dog, and if Cain can show he can hold his own against the biggest politician in the race, then he raises his profile and his appeal as a VP all at once. Cain also needs to drop the businessman “I don’t know what I don’t know” honesty and pick up a bit more of the politician “I know everything” swagger.

● Thaddeus McCotter: McCotter is playing for the future as well. He really needs to make himself memorable, because 0%+/- of the public knows who he is. Based on his likely appeal, his best bet would be to offer a series of bold new ideas no one else has mentioned and turn himself into the ideas candidate, i.e. replace Newt. . . but in a good way. This would position him well for 2016 and 2020. If he wants to play for VP instead, which is possible as he hails from blue state Michigan, then he needs to follow the Hermanator strategy and come out swinging tonight.

● Newt Gingrich/Rick Santorum: These guys are wasting everybody’s time. The public’s view of both is fixed and both have too many skeletons already out of the closet to change any minds. I suspect both are playing to gain credibility so they can have healthy think-tank careers. Hence, they are likely to focus tonight on the areas about which they want to tank in the future.

● Obama: After the whole re-scheduling fiasco, Obama should probably keep a low profile tonight. But he won’t. He’ll try to make some statement to save face (like his new $300 billion Stimulus 4: Revenge of Stimulus) and distract from the debate. . . and will make a fool of himself all over again.

Thoughts?

94 comments:

T-Rav said...

As a quick addendum, Andrew forgot to mention that all house fees from the gambling go to me as compensation for sitting through all these Obama press conferences and recapping them in the comments, which I will do again tomorrow night. No, don't say you'll watch it too instead of the Saints-Packers game; you know you won't. I do this so you don't have too. If you like, you can send the fees directly to my bank account, No. XXXXXX-123456.

LawHawkRFD said...

I certainly wish this were a better field. The only candidate I'm enthusiastic about is McCotter, and I'm afraid he doesn't have a snowball's chance in Amarillo. As you said, we'll probably know tonight if Perry is the candidate-presumptive, or merely the ephemeral new toy. I'm still doing my silent prayers for a dark horse, or at least a VP candidate who can make up for the front-runners' flaws.

Tennessee Jed said...

I'm hoping Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio come out on stage like surprise guests at a rock concert and sing "the future in Now" sucking all the Perry/Romney air out of the hall and leaving Obullshitbama with zero audience to match his zero job growth

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Hey, that's our scam... er, money! Best of luck tomorrow night. It's too bad he moved it to earlier in the evening, I would have loved to see what would have happened with him going teleprompter to head against the NFL!

Are you watching tonight?

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, I'm not thrilled with this field, not at all. I like McCotter, but he's got no chance. If I had to pick one now, it would be Bachmann, but it would be process of elimination more than anything.

I think Perry is the real key tonight. If he gives a command performance, he's got this thing sewn up. If he blows it, then he could flame out. However, the reputation on Perry is that he's kind of dull in debates. So he may end up just keeping everyone else in the race.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, That would be really, really cool. "... and introducing tonight's surprise guest...." Woo hoo!! Sadly, that's not going to happen.

It will be interesting to see how large the audience is tonight compared to what Obama gets tomorrow.

I see a lot of hand wringing about his speech already from liberals who think he's making a mistake.... duh.

Ed said...

Andrew, You should put up an odds board. You could do win/lose and over/under on certain buzz words like abortion, constitution, and jobs.

CrispyRice said...

Good playbook, Andrew, thanks.

When I saw / heard about Romski's 59 points of economic light, I was reminded of that Happy Days episode where Richie runs for student council. He goes up to give a campaign speech and ends up outlining like 100 things he's going to do, including stuff like "Repaint the parking line so they are slanted. Everyone wants that!" In the meantime, his audience falls into a gentle slumber...

I'm with both you and LawHawk, though. I keep waiting for a "real" candidate to come out. *sigh* I'm still pulling for the Hermanator. (hee hee.)

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, The betting board if a good idea, but the over/under would kill us. Who wouldn't choose over on those words? We could make it over/under 10,000 and it would still go over. LOL!

Who have you got tonight?

AndrewPrice said...

Crispy, The Hermanator would be great, but I can't see him winning sadly. We'll see if anyone else jumps in, but right now it doesn't look likely.

I had forgotten about that Happy Days episode! Good call though! LOL! It really tells you something about how well the Romster understands the public that he would even try to release a 59 point plan. The public just doesn't listen to anything that long. Ten points is about the maximum you can get away with -- and on economics, five is better.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, of course. Because I have no life. (Not that that should reflect on anyone here...)

More seriously, I'm trying to warm myself up to Perry, because he's got probably the best shot at the nomination right now, and I won't mind too much as long as he beats Romney. But I still get more fired up by Bachmann.

Anyway, you know all this is just a race to see who comes in second place to Palin in getting the nomination, right? ;-)

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, All our readers lead incredibly interesting and influential lives. :-)

It's funny you should mention Palin. A lot of people seem to finally be coming around to the idea that she has been teasing her fans and won't actually get into the race. The latest is Chuck Grassley, who points out that she has no organization to make a run with even if she wanted to.

I also heard about an interesting article from Ann Coulter, which I haven't seen, where she apparently says she's none-too-pleased with Palin or her fans.

On the debate, I am having a hard time warming to any of these clowns. It would help if the conservative media would actually drill them on the right things and get them focused on things that matter. But the conservative media isn't any less shallow than the liberal media. Ug.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, I've heard some chatter about that for the past few weeks, and I think it's starting to gain acceptance. And by "acceptance," I mean the kind that comes after the other four stages of grief. I read about the Coulter-Ingraham criticism of Palin on HotAir (a well-known watering hole for Palinistas) last night. That comment thread is currently at 1,280...and still going.

rlaWTX said...

T-Rav, as I told Bev about going to that lecture: "you are a brave and strong soul to sacrifice your time and brain cells to such a noble infiltrating purpose... I hope your choice of therapeutic methods will be sufficient to cleanse your heart and aura of the taint..."

As for the GOP slate... sigh...
wouldn't it be grand if Cain caught on like a house afire? (although mentioning fire similes around this state could get you in trouble!)

And according to a relative's wise and thoughtful Facebook feed, we need to "Tell Perry to stop his assault on women's health!" apparently he has halted some funding to Planned Parenthood or something - I didn't follow the link... but I thought "that's good to know..." ;) No comments by me on her feed because some arguments are not worth the blood pressure increase.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Wow, I'll have to check that out. I take it all 1,280 comments are seething with anger?

I've been saying for some time that I don't think she'll run. Her timing is just too well aligned with needing publicity for books or films or tv shows or her daughter's show to make sense politically. It strikes me as very cynical. Also, like Grassley, I've noticed for a long time now that she has no organization anywhere that would let her run. It takes people to do all the paperwork and to handle turnout operations (especially in caucus states), and she has none of that in place.

It will be interesting to see what happens when she finally announces that she won't run. I don't think her fans will forgive her for teasing them. She really should have run or made it clear earlier that she wasn't going to run this time. I also wonder if they will find another candidate or just drop out for a while?

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, You just can't help some people. On the other hand, she's probably a good source of why we should support people she dislikes. LOL!

I still like Herman a lot as well, but I think he's playing for VP at best at this point. I just don't see him being able to catch up to the front runners.

Yeah, we should probably avoid any mention of fires.

On Perry, I want to like Perry, but I remain concerned that he's into crony capitalism. That's what I want to see some conservative journalists nail down. If I was interviewing him, I'd hit him straight up with those questions: do you represent conservatives or corporate donors?

T-Rav doesn't mind sacrificing his mental health for the rest of us. :-)

T-Rav said...

Thanks for those words of support, rla! I'll need it. Quick question--rubbing alcohol and Vicodin count as "therapeutic methods," right?

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, That's how the new ObamaCare works to treat most conditions.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, I'm pretty sure she's not running. Even if she was planning to get in at a later date, there should have been more signs of that by now. I'm focusing on the ones who are actually in the race.

On that note, and since Ed brought it up, I did a quick poll of my cat, my sockpuppets, and the voices in my head, and here are the odds on various scenarios for the debate. These are absolutely scientific and infallible.

Perry wins the debate: 1-in-3
Huntsman gives an impressive performance and increases his support from 1% to 2%: 1-in-20
Gingrich and/or Santorum accomplish this same feat: 1-in-8
McCotter wows everyone with his awesome guitar skills: 1-in-150
Romney goes on the attack against Perry: 1-in-2
Bachmann attacks Perry: 4-to-1
Nobody drops out after this debate: 100-to-1
Obama continues to be a moron after this debate: 1,000,000,000-to-1
Ron Paul does not mention gold, the Fed, or something outrageous about foreign policy: zero

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, LOL! Nice list! Though I think you under-rate the chance that Obama will remain a moron.

I would actually bet that Romney doesn't go on the offensive against Perry. I'll bet Romney keeps on playing to the middle and trying to look Presidential and bets that the others will take Perry down for him.

Also, you forgot the odds that Joe Biden stumbles out on stage and talks about having sex with his wife: 3-2, depending on how good the security is tonight.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I just checked out the HotAir article... it's confirmed, Coulter is a RINO. LOL! Idiots.

The comments really continue to show what can only be described as delusional thinking. It's the whole "everyone secret loves X, they just won't say so to pollsters because the media has people terrified to tell the truth" combined with the cult of victimization. Yep, that and a Mayan calendar gets you a ticket to Group Suicide Park.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, I forgot to list that one. Nice catch. :-)

On the Palin article, that's why I mentioned the "stages of grief" thing earlier. A lot of her supporters still seem to be stuck between the denial and anger stages. (And for the record, I still like Palin, I really do. But if she can't be elected, she can't be elected.)

Just An Average American said...

I'm not a supporter or a hater of Palin, but T-Rav is an evil RINO @$@$#%#$#!!! How can Commentarama let someone as evil as T-Rav spread his hateful rhetoric! He should be banned from the internet!!! Ahhhhhh!!

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Sorry, I couldn't resist. I just wanted to give you a taste of what you would have run into if you'd posted your Palin-Denier comments at HotAir! :-)

Ed said...

T-Rav and Andrew, I'll put a dollar on the Obama getting smarter thing. With those kinds of odds, it's worth taking a flier! Next I'm going to sink my entire salary into lottery tickets! ;)

T-Rav said...

I just realized I have to put the channel on MSNBC to watch this debate. Thomas Sowell was right--there is, in fact, no cosmic justice.

Chris Matthews said...

What is the heart of the Republican Party? Besides pure evil, I mean.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I didn't even have it programmed in and had to look up the channel number on line.


Chris, What is tingling down your leg, besides evidence of fear?

T-Rav said...

Oh God. I have to listen to Rachel Maddow commercials, followed by Ron Paul commercials. Where's that bottle of vodka???

T-Rav said...

Hey, Just an Average American. Come closer...pay no attention to this shotgun or the bottle of chloroform on the desk...

Writer X said...

Mitch Romski? Oh, that is hilarious. Thanks for the laugh. I needed it today.

I think it will be Perry's to lose at this point.

*Must go mix up my pitcher of martinis...*

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, Isn't that his name? ;-)

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, My tv seems to be rebelling against against being on MSNBC, it sounds like the journalists are all spewing idiocy? That can't be right, can it?

T-Rav said...

If it's MSNBC, then yes it is, Andrew. I guess the game plan is, Brian Williams will debate each candidate and try to get them to admit they suck.

Brian Williams said...

"Candidates, you are part of an evil, evil creature called the Republican Party, which seeks to do evil and destroy the country. . . here's my question: isn't Obama dreamy?"

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, That's exactly how I see it. Williams thinks his job is to do a hit job candidate by candidate. I wonder if he would do the say if these were Democrats?

LOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOL!!!!!

Barack Obama said...

Brian, you're doing a heck of a job.

Barack Obama said...

That's my boy Jon! Woo hoo!

AndrewPrice said...

I have to say that I'm liking the action tonight. I think they've all be pretty sharp and their attacks have been excellent and sharp without coming across as nasty.

T-Rav said...

Okay, so I may be a little biased, but I thought Bachmann gave a really good answer right there. Actually, that was the least biased question Williams has asked so far.

AndrewPrice said...

Waiver! Waiver! Waiver! Waiver! Waiver! Waiver! Waiver! Waiver!

T-Rav said...

There's a lot of "Day One" promises going around here. I bet on January 20th, they'll be too busy getting sworn in and partying and crap.

Generic Republican said...

Way to go Newt!

T-Rav said...

Subtitle that, "Newt Gingrich's proudest moment."

The Media said...

If you're such a big Christian, why don't you support social justice?! DUHHHH!!!!!

AndrewPrice said...

I've been impressed by the all so far, even Huntsman. (except Santorum)

Also, I think Williams and Politico-boy are trying to minimize Bachmann.

Christians said...

If you're such a big journalist, why don't you support uncovering the truth and reporting it?

T-Rav said...

Jeez, MSNBC's really trying hard to make Huntsman shine, aren't they?

AndrewPrice said...

Yep. Play up Huntsman, play down Bachmann, Paul, get the rest fighting.

T-Rav said...

Oh God. The Paulbots are gonna storm the stage.

Ed said...

Is it just me or are other people feeling a lot of hate for Williams and the other jerkoff?

T-Rav said...

Ed, I wouldn't say it's so much hate as contempt.

AndrewPrice said...

You know what, it just struck me that any of these people will BLOW Obama AWAY in a debate. They've all got brains. . . they don't need a TOTUS to move their lips.

T-Rav said...

Oh, shut the @#$% up Romney!

AndrewPrice said...

Go Herman!!

T-Rav said...

Okay. I'm still not that fond of Rick Perry, but this is NOT "Let's get together and bash the new front-runner" hour. Stop this.

AndrewPrice said...

I think they are letting themselves get off track with the vaccine issue. It's not relevant to the public.

Ron Paul! said...

That's right folks, I said big government caused 9/11.

AndrewPrice said...

Dammit. Why is Hunstman such a frick'n RINO? He's smart, well-spoken and well-focused. I just can't trust the guy.

AndrewPrice said...

Ok, I loved that-- Obama is an abject liar!

T-Rav said...

This would be a great time to bring up Operation Fast and Furious. Just saying.

Writer X said...

oh, dear gawd. Everytime Huntsman speaks, I nod off.

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, LOL! Yeah... there is that. What bothers me is that if I didn't know his record, a lot of what he says makes sense -- but I know better because he's not being honest about the things he's said before.

T-Rav said...

Writer X, I just get irritated by his duplicity. You know he's a Democrat at heart.

Writer X said...

He's like the wallflower of the debate. Does anyone know he's there?

And get the tinfoil hat for Ron Paul. He's one step away from becoming a Keebler elf (the cookie kind)

AndrewPrice said...

Paul always starts well with his comments, but then he slides on the aluminum hat....

T-Rav said...

Holy crap, SEIU runs commercials here? Why I am totally not surprised?

Writer X said...

I totally don't trust Huntsman. He'd sell his wife to become President.

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, I had the same thought about Paul!



And speaking of wallflowers, where is McCotter?

Writer X said...

Also loved the obvious gaining up on Perry by the commentator dudes. I thought he did okay.

Mitch Romski said all the right things but not sure I trust him either.

Writer X said...

OMG,that's right! Is he locked in a closet somewhere? With his guitar?

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, I believe I saw her on eBay, and the asking price was indeed "one Presidency." ;-)

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, I have no idea? I guess he forgot to mark his calendar?

I agree about Romney and Perry. I actually think they've all done pretty well tonight -- they are all better than Obama. But I do have major trust issues with some of them.

The Left said...

Perry is using violent and dangerous rhetoric! Bad for America!

T-Rav said...

I guess Huntsman thinks wrapping himself in the flag will save him.

Writer X, I was just wondering that. Where is he?

The Unions said...

You people didn't see nuthing tonight... or you're all gonna get beat up.

AndrewPrice said...

On McCotter....


According to various reports, McCotter was excluded. Here's the standard they used to keep him out:

Inclusion is open, organizers say, to “all Republicans who have a reasonable prospect of becoming the GOP nominee and who have demonstrated that they are in a credible position to be a principal competitor in the early stages of the nominating contest.”

T-Rav said...

Wow, loaded question much?

T-Rav said...

Oh. All Republicans who have a reasonable prospect of becoming the GOP nominee. You know, like Huntsman. Or Santorum.

AndrewPrice said...

Yeah, my thoughts exactly.

I liked Bachmann's answer about global warming, though I wish one of them would just unload about climate gate.

AndrewPrice said...

Big points for Perry on this capital punishment answer.

AndrewPrice said...

And Williams, like all liberals can't believe people aren't upset by capital punishment.

T-Rav said...

How awesome was that applause before Williams asked the death penalty question? He just came off as a sanctimonious jerk.

AndrewPrice said...

Great answer by Paul.

Now... to get MSNBC off my television.

T-Rav said...

Get off my TV screen, Rachel Maddow!

Writer X said...

I thought Perry, Romski, and Cain gave some of the best answers.

Now, must turn off MSNBC. I feel like I should have my TV professionally cleaned after seeing a Chris Matthews/Maddow commercial. Ugh.

Later!

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, My tv feels the same.

I agree. I think Perry, Romski and Cain all did really well. The biggest loser tonight was Obama, who took a beating.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Any closing thoughts? I need to write a review of this for the morning.... so I'm looking to steal ideas! (just kidding)

T-Rav said...

Andrew, all ideas are my own personal property and I will not stand for this intellectual theft. :-)

Okay, more seriously, I think your third scenario--Perry does just okay and everyone stays in the race--was what happened. He did--well, just okay. Kinda hit and miss. I don't think anyone moved much, up or down. Romney kept his poise for the most part, but he's definitely not the frontrunner right now. I do think Ron Paul had one of his worst performances to date. On the flip side, Newt Gingrich did very well. I saw a lot of comments elsewhere to the effect of, "Someone talk me off the ledge, I'm being Newtified!" How far that translates into movement in the polls, I have no idea.

That's about the long and short of my thoughts. So take that for whatever it's worth.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks T-Rav, Tune in tomorrow morning to see what I steal without attribution! Mwoo ha ha!

rlaWTX said...

I am so incredibly bummed! I had family pop in on my g'parents and we started talking and oops forgot about the debate!!! But I LOVED your running commentary!! and missing the commercials might be compensation enough... looking forward to Andrews all original review.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, Sorry you couldn't join us. It was a good debate. I'll do my best to provide original commentary... mostly not stolen from T-Rav! :-)

Ponderosa said...

Why is the GOP debating on MSNBC?

Mr. Santorum as a Catholic doesn't your book-thingie say that you should tax the living shit out of your fellow man?

Let's at least have Fox w/the WSJ. Who is in charge?


JM&J
Made me ill.

AndrewPrice said...

Ponderosa, I agree. I have no idea why this was on MSNBC, but it struck me as simply wrong. Blech!

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