It's a big night in Florida, it's seniors eat free night at Golden Corral! And beside that, there's voting afoot. Tonight could actually decide the race and it looks like the Gingrich dirigible has caught fire. So join us as we watch the humanity unfold... or not. (Results released at 8 PM EST.)
And while we wait, riddle me this: in hindsight, do you think the debate process has been good or bad for sorting through the candidates?
Don't forget: It's Star Trek Tuesday at the film site! Today is about the Wrath of Khan!
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
T-Rav's Sockpuppet Votatorium Presents: Primarily Florida
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171 comments:
Nice new photo! Very professional. I love the motto.
On the debates, I actually do think they've been good. They've exposed a couple people, especially over the longer term, and they have made me much more comfortable with a couple others.
Thanks DUQ, I like the motto too. It's very fitting somehow. ;)
I think the debates are what they are. As much as some people (mostly Perry supporters) have protested that it's unfair to judge a candidate by their debate performance, the fact is presidential elections are largely a beauty contest, and the better a candidate can come across to voters image-wise, the more votes they'll get. So these debates are probably important in establishing who can win that round and who can't.
T-Rav, I agree with that. Though I also think DUQ makes a good point.
The debates gave us a chance to see Cain, who would not otherwise have been seen. It gave Newt a chance to rise, and to fall again when he couldn't sustain his momentum. It exposed Perry as a fool and as someone who would have been a horrid candidate -- it also really displayed his un-conservative mindset when he said "you ain't got no heart." And it's given me a chance to conclude that Romney is much more conservative than his record suggests.
While the debate season seems to have been too long (and it's shortened my life), I have to admit that it's given me a lot of information about these people and their abilities which wasn't there in just their records.
I was robbed by that fellow
uh
uh
you know the one I'm talking about. I ain't stoopid.
I agree with T-Rav--"They are what they are" The debates tell us about the parties, the right wing, the left wing, the press and a little about the candidates -all in real time-
....that is if you can handle it without hurling!
CrisD, They have been painful, that's for sure. Fortunately, we are finally coming to the end of the debate season.
I am looking forward to seeing the GenericRepublican v. TOTUS debates though. McCain was an awful debater, the four guys left on the Republican side aren't. I think Obama's doomed.
Do they all get to give a speech tonight even if they went home to do their taxes or whatever? Or will it just be Newt and Romney?
Doc, I don't know. I would assume they could all speak if they wanted to, but the media might not be interested in covering someone from their home? Good question.
T-Rav: That which does not destroy me makes me strong. These debates have been bloody and seemingly interminable. The Democrats are smacking their lips over the blood on the barroom floor. I think they're wrong. Whoever emerges from this contest is going to be a better, tougher candidate for it. The damage is short-term, the lessons learned won't be. Sure, Obama will try to use some of the negatives during his campaign, but all our candidate has to do is flex his muscles and stay on track with attacks on Obama's multiple failures, inattention to duty, and use of his office as the royal dispensary.
I don't think any of them are at home. Santorum went back to PA briefly because his daughter was in the hospital, but I think he's up in Minnesota or somewhere now. I figure they'll just cover the speeches from Romney and Newt, though. They're the only two who are contesting FL.
As long as we beat Obama. If our guy can out-debate him, I'll be happy with that.
my god, the humanity . . . . Another thing to consider. We didn't have a real conservative star at this time. One of the best things that may have come from the tea party mind-set (born of Obamacare) was the rise of some young prinipled outsiders who went to Washington for the first time. Maybe, our version of "the one" will emerge from this class down the road to make our choices more appealing.
I believe Mitt Romney can beat B.O. despite the billiopn dollars and the lame streams
T-Rav, I thought he went home to do his taxes? Oh well, either way, I don't think he's in Florida and I don't know if they'll let him speak if he isn't at a Florida HQ?
Lawhawk, That which does not kill us, can still suck.
Jed, I honestly don't think Obama's billion dollars is going to help. There just isn't enough money to clean up his record.
Andrew, excellent new truism!
Thanks rlaWTX! It seems like a natural extension. :)
Well this Floridian has voted today.
It is what it is ......
Indi, Then I wish your guy luck, unless you voted for Obama. ;)
Andrew, I think the campaign key is to take a play from B.O.'s own playbook : "never let a statement go unchallenged." B.O. is so overexposed, and he lies everyday. Romney has the money to afford to answer every lie with (get this) . . . . the truth! Juxtapose his statement with the facts, stir in a heaping dose of FAILURE, and voila send the cretan back to Chi town where he belongs. Ho's that for hope 'n change. :)
Jed, Something interesting Romney has done which has greatly frustrated Newt is to have people follow Newt around so they could immediate issue rebuttals to the journalists who hear Newt speak. Apparently, it's proven to be a very effective strategy and it's relatively cheap.
Andrew, that's an excellent plan on Mitt's behalf...
and I quoted your new truism on my facebook - it has one "like" so far :)
Andrew
My guy was not in the running
so I went with what was there
Excellent! Let's hope for many likes!
I think it's a great plan by Romney. I understand Newt did it first, but Romney apparently has done it better. And it sounds like a very effective way to upset the opposition and to muddle their attempts to get their message out.
This is going to be an interesting campaign and I'm not sure Obama is ready for it. Last time he ran against a man who was happy to lose. Not this time.
Indi, That describes our political system in a nutshell.
Fox seems to have Romney at 50% and Newt at 39% with 32% reporting. That would be a significant gap!
Fox's exit poll says that 50% of seniors voted for Romney. No word on juniors or sophomores. ;P
Fox just did a puff piece on Ron Paul. He's got a fascinating history.
Politicians should not sing.
For those who didn't hear about it, Newt made a disgusting attack on Romney today. It seems that when Mitt was MA governor, he included an item in the budget that would have cut $600,000 in funding for kosher kitchens, which I guess are to provide for poor Jewish seniors. Not eliminating it or saying they couldn't serve kosher food, because they could get it from elsewhere, just cutting it. So today, Newt proceeded to accuse Romney of depriving Holocaust survivors of food and of launching an assault on religious freedoms everywhere. I still don't like Romney, but right now I like Gingrich even less.
Ron Paul, man!!!
In what is surely the most nail-biting, uncertain call in recorded history, Fox projects a win for Romney approximately two seconds after all polls close.
T-Rav, I'm talking about the tomorrow morning. It's really despicable.
FYI, the order is:
Romney
Gingrich
Santorum
Paul
But Romney gets all 50 delegates. The big question tonight though will be how big the win is. If it's near 50%, then the others should just quit now.
What I want to know is why they can give you results before the polls even close?
Personally, I'm still trying to figure out why Santorum didn't get a larger share of the vote. After last week's debate, I was expecting a surge for him in Florida. I guess not being in the state had something to do with it, but do you really need someone to come to your local diner to decide whether or not to vote for them? That's never made sense to me.
T-Rav, I suspect it was an issue of priorities. People who may have supported him probably decided it was more important to help/take down Newt.
Fox is trying to pretend that people supported Newt and Romney because they want someone else get in the race.
Karl Rove is pimping Jed Bush. Ug.
Romney supposed to speak in 10-15 minutes. No word on the rest yet.
Andrew, most of the polls closed at 7:00 ET, but the Panhandle stayed open until 8:00, so there were already a large chunk of precincts that had reported in.
The Google results map is very interesting: Newt swept north Florida, Romney the rest of the state.
In less chaotic days, this would probably have clinched it for Romney. Florida is a diverse state, and a swing state. But these are chaotic times, so we'll be treated to more of the same for awhile longer. I'm at the point that I have little problem with Santorum and even the hapless Ron Paul, but Gingrich is seriously pissing me off. The Holocaust, for God's sake!?!?
T-Rav, It still strikes me as wrong that they start reporting before the polls close. They did this all the time and claim they won't do it, and then they do it.
Fox for example, kept saying "we won't report anything until all the polls close, but we will call it the moment it closes... oh, and Romney's ahead by 19%... but we're not saying anything."
Lawhawk, I think it will depend on how big the margin is. If the margin is big enough (like Romney gets 50%), then I think this race is basically over and it will move to the next phase. But if it's closer than that, then Newt will try to stick around.
The other two are apparently hoping the delegates all go insane and decided to chose them instead of whoever.
T-rav, do you have the link to the google map? I'll look around Fox.
You know, Paul's performance should be a significant story. For a man who is supposed to do well even when he doesn't try, a fourth place finish behind the guy who went home to do his taxes is pretty disappointing.
[among my rather small group of friends, your truism seems to be a hit...]
rlaWTX, Excellent! LOL!
I have to say that these analysts are talking out of both sides of their mouths.
CrisD, here's the link: MAP
I wish they wouldn't thank everyone. Send them a muffin basket or something, don't waste television time.
Andrew, they're analysts. That's what they do.
For the record, I still don't like Romney. I want everyone to be clear on that.
T-Rav, That is what they do. They also seem determined to let us know that they saw it all coming... just like they told us (at the same time they were telling us the exact opposite as well).
So you like Romney now, huh?
Nice line -- "we remember how we got here, you won the election."
Slam.
Why is Fox showing the results by county? Is Florida that much more impor--oh, I guess it is.
"Mr. President, you were elected to lead, you chose to follow, now it's time for you to get out of the way!"
Winner.
T-Rav, That's for the gamblers, it's like a point spread.
Andrew, I like Romney about as much as you like Jeb Bush. Sound good? :-)
"President Obama's view of a free economy is to send your money to his friends."
Excellent speech.
T-Rav, Sounds fair, just don't tell that to the secret service.
Good speech. He's hitting all the right points. His delivery is a little dull, but his words are right on.
Romney is doing a good job of contrasting himself with Obama. He needs to keep that up if he wins the nomination.
That said, of course, I fully expect Newt to rally behind Romney if/when--probably when--he becomes the nominee. If he refuses to rally behind him, he should be read out of the party. End of story.
landing body blows
pounding O. with body blows
His friends in the faculty lounge...did you catch that one, Andrew?
Saving the soul of America. Very Reaganesque.
Jed, I think he's landing blow after blow. I would like to see more passion (as DUQ says) but he's right on and it was a great speech.
Cris, I did. There were a lot of great images (digs) in that.
Plus, he painted a very positive vision for himself, which is the way to do these speeches.
The Palin is coming!!
I predict Gingrich starts with this:
"Frankly, Florida is an awful place full of stupid people...."
Or not.
I guess nobody need me tonight.
I've kinda flipped over to "Dawn of the Dead" on SciFi for the moment. Fits my mood.
Palin continues pimping wrongly for Newt.
I know, I know. I'd like Mitt to be a bit more passionate, but c'mon, he's Donnie & Marie . . . and he's the adult so he's not going to do fire breather real well. Remember, you were correct when you said we want this to be about Obama. So, adult body blows work. Get down his schtick on defending capitalism down cold, and bam, obam is history
landing body blows
T-Rav, I started there before this little shindig.
Palin is attacking Romney using Newt's talking points... surrogates, $17 million dollars, false narrative.
Won't say Romney is ready to lead the country.
Doesn't seem to realize that Romney has just said everything she says he needs to say.
Zzzzzzzz.....
As I've said before, Romney wasn't my first choice, or even my fourth. But tonight he looked and sounded presidential, refrained entirely from any recriminations against his opponents, stuck to a litany of Obama's misdemeanors, and seemed "sunny." So barring one of my favorites getting into the race (highly unlikely), I started humming a song from 1970 by Steve Stills: "If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with." LOL
Oh, you were watching it too, huh? So does everyone die during the ending credits?
Jed, I agree. I just wish he had a bit more passion to make him a little more exciting, BUT I don't personally hold it against him nor do I think it will hurt him.
Lawhawk, This has been his pattern for a couple months now and that's making me much more comfortable with him. "He gets it." The other guys haven't gotten it yet.
fyi, Juan Williams didn't like Romney's speech, so that's evidence that it was really good.
T-Rav, That's my understanding of the closing credits. Is there a debate?
Ricky's speaking....
No, I don't think so, it just wasn't 100% definite so I wanted to know if I was interpreting it right. Hey, maybe we could use some of those riot and rampage scenes for the campaign ads! "America under a Second Obama Term, 2015"
Rick didn't get into negativity...hahaha..he knows how to do that better than anyone..
Now hw;s singing a different tune
Once again, Rick doesn't understand the concept of these speeches. He's lecturing everyone on being nasty in Florida....
He is such a sh*t....
"I'm not going to criticize you for what I'm criticizing you for."
"I'm not going to sling mud, except for the mud I just slung."
Now he attacks capitalism...
... bad profiteers.
... approved of by Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
Rick should go home.
Well, he gave it all he's got, I suppose. I can't imagine he's going to get much of the vote in Nevada, though.
Andrew: I'd like to see Romney sneak up behind Juan Williams wearing a full jihadist outfit including face mask. That would wake Williams up again for a few minutes to reality. Williams pointed out that Romney's negatives have risen over the past few weeks. Obviously, not among Floridians. Williams should just go back to his basement room with all the posters of Obama and shut up.
Rick is now whining that we get away from the issues and make it just about personal attacks. That's bad.
This from a man who just spent his whole speech making personal attacks.
Go home, Ricky.
Hey, did you know "schism" is supposed to be pronounced without the "k" sound, so it's like "sism"? Some professor of mine got real hopped up on that once, until another professor reminded him, "If enough people pronounce it wrong, that becomes the right pronunciation."
Lawhawk, That would be funny.
Whoops, here comes Satan Jr.
T-Rav, No one pronounces it that way. Hence, the professor is wrong.
The Newt
"I want to thank no one...."
-- Candidate AndrewPrice
Iiiiiiiiii want to thank you,
for giving me the beeeeeest da-aaaay of my life.
Oh, is Newt on now?
Newt seems to have forgotten two people.
T-Rav, Yes and he's whining about the "elite media" and the "liberal Mass governor." Now he's claiming he's going to contest everywhere and win.
Yawn.
Now we're whining about Romney having more money.
What's he talking about? I was watching a Rifftrax short for "Clash of the Titans" and got distracted. I've been getting distracted a lot this evening. Something about "disparity" and "the American people," blah blah blah....
"We're going to have people power defeat money power....
...and you may ask, how are we going to do that?
... with mirrors, in space. Trust me, it will work."
T-Rav, He's putting together a "People's Campaign".
Go comrade Gingrich!
Don't go head-to-head with this professor, Andrew. He can conjugate in Latin. Plus, he has a mustache which I'm pretty sure is an alien life-form plotting world domination. It's not worth it.
Honestly, if he gets more cynical, I think a black hole will form over his head.
Newt Gingrich, moving forward.....In sppaaaacccceeee!!!!!
T-Rav, Mustaches don't scare me.
Newt just told you exactly what his presidency would be like -- he will attack Republicans and Democrats.
You heard it right there.
Sooooo, I had to work late and I'm guessing Romney won by a lot.
As Gingrich does his populist vs Rich Romney routine, claiming the high ground on ideas, a thought came to me. "No army is so powerful as an idea whose time has come." But Newt has six ideas per second, often in conflict with each other.
So Romney's money can't beat him, he says. Well maybe Romney has some ideas which will produce a steady course he wishes to pursue, and the money doesn't hurt. If Gingrich really was "the big idea man," the money would come. But nobody knows from one minute to the next which idea Gingrich will chase.
Bill Nelson?
Newt is about to offer us a contract. Run it past your lawyer first. DO NOT SIGN IT.
Bev, well....I mean, if you consider 15 points to be a lot, then sure, I guess so...
Cris, A Senator from Florida.
Oh, some guy from Florida
Abolish the Tsars!
Oh, goodie, now Newt is promising to pass everything within 2 hours of taking office. Well, I'm sold.
Don't worry about my contract! All you have to do is turn over your firstborn for work on a space station, unless you're an illegal immigrant, because that just wouldn't be right. Vote for me!
Leave Russia alone!
Nelson is the Democratic Senator from Florida, and Rubio's opposite. But Gingrich isn't running for Senate from Florida, and he needs to take care of his presidential candidacy before trying to assist in turning the Senate Republican.
I've got a great idea. Assuming he wins the nomination, how about Newt makes Jindal his running mate, abolishes ObamaCare and opens up Keystone his first afternoon in office, and then resigns?
His speeches remind me entirely of Woody Allen's dictator in Bananas.
I'm working on homework, so I am purposefully not in front of a TV and not streaming anything. I just have y'all and Fox News' results page up. I think that I have an excellent idea of how the evening is going - THANKS!
In Soviet Russia, tsars abolish YOU!
Yay! Gingrich read my article this morning. LOL
OH! T-Rav, that is the best campaign promise I have heard yet!!!!
T-Rav, Now that would be a policy I could get behind.
Newt has already sold his sacred honor.
No "Eye of the Tiger" music to close
Newt + Rick < Mitt
We will do grandiose things and then move on to the inner planets and cover them with solar panels and totally transform the judiciary everywhere on Earth...We do these things not because they are easy, but because they are hard....
T-Rav: If we can find a way to make that a binding contract, I'm all for it. Run, Bobby, Run.
I'm thinkin' outside the box tonight, guys.
Gingrich reminds me of Kucinich, only less sane.
Andrew, your truism has the best post response I have gotten from my fb'ers in a long time! Thanks for making me more popular!
Destroy the Mars judiciary!
No problem rlaWTX! Glad to help. :)
(P.S. I'm hoping you're talking about thousands of people... don't tell me if you aren't.)
T-Rav, You're on fire tonight, but in a good way, not in the way the planet would be after the whole mirror, pull asteroids towards us, redefine human DNA Gingrich plan.
Speaking of aliens... here comes Dr. Paul. :)
o no! here comes the nutty docky
I think they're cheering "Morbo!"
Which would be a Futurama reference.
RABID SQUIRREL! RABID SQUIRREL!
unshattered...
In a tragic turn of events, Ron Paul would learn that ballots win elections, not enthusiasm.
I've signed up for the caucus on the 7th. I'm not voting for Ron.
T-Rav, LOL! Bravo.
Shhh!!! We're trying not to break it to her! She's very unpleasant when her illusions get crushed!
Dear rlaWTX's friends, I'm not saying anything, I'm working on the assumption we're talking about tens of thousands. :)
I would not have expected Paul to use the phrase "winning the hearts and minds" in a positive manner.
Like the American Revolution! Or the Civil War!
I'm starting to wonder if Paul is reading the same constitution the rest of us are. My copy doesn't say anything about what to do about the fed.
"Assassinate American citizens without trial"? Wait, what???
Ah Andrew, you don't do Ron Paul justice. In his many years of defending the Constitution when no one else would, Ron Paul has discovered hidden meanings and policies in it that no one else can see it. Kind of like the heroes in "National Treasure," or schizophrenics.
Hooray, he's off the stage. I can't wait for August, when he loses the nomination battle for good and then never runs again.
I just heard Newt is coming back out to ask Romney, Santorum, and Paul to step aside to give him a straight path to the nomination because he only has 4 million less. Oh, and disappointing Governor Palin and the Hermanator, he's going to mention he will NOT have a V.P. because nobody is actually capable of filling his shoes.
4 million left
T-Rav, It's like the Bible Code. If you turn the letters in the words of the Constitution into numbers and then run them through a computer, they will predict fiscal policy.
... and Super Bowl results.
Jed, I'm disappointed in several conservatives for supporting this idiocy.
Good plan to have everyone step aside, but why stop there? He should ask Obama as well. I'm sure he'll see the wisdom in it.
Oh look, something else is happening on another channel. I should check that out immediately. ;)
Good night everyone.
y'all are awesome!
thanks for keepin' on keepin' on!
Ah, it seems I've missed the party. (family haircut night) I've yet to read the comments, but really quick my thought on the debates.
I think they've been horrible for the very reason they were supposed to be good. They were supposed to hone the candidates, which they've done, but the result is greater skepticism of each of the candidates. Their messages are stronger and clearer but because they have changed, nobody believes any of them.
Well, it looks like I missed a fun convo' but not much else. Thanks for catching me up.
Looking forward to tomorrow's Newt column because I have an observation to share and I'm sure it will fit.
tryanmax, I look forward to your observation. I just got a push-poll call from Newt which was a total smear of Romney.
I'm a late comer.
Rather late.
My thoughts.
Mitt needed this win more than Newt. If Mitt won, Newt can survive, at least for a bit, if Newt had won then Mitt would have been finished.
Newt is a good speaker -when he's on point.
Ann Romney is a heck of a better speaker than her husband.
Mitt won, largely due to (1) Bombarding Newt with a massive negative campaign, (2) his performance in the debates, and (3) Gingrich's response to 1 and 2.
Newt accused Mitt of basically throwing everything at him and seeing what stuck. Really, Mitt's attacks were clearly coordinated at Newt's weak spots.
-Mitt's attacks were within the realm of believability. Many voters, I think, could believe the stuff about Fannie/Freddie and the ethics charges. Especially as most over 35 would remember the latter.
-Mitt also took him on in what was supposed to be Newt's biggest area of strength: the debates. He clobbered him and Newt seemed, well, neutered. (lame pun!)
Newt responded by proving what George Will said of him "when he's good he's great and when he's bad he's horrid." We saw the horrid side of Newt.
Newt was stunned by the attacks and responded by upping the ante and basically throwing everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, at Newt. He accused him of being a "maniacal liar" and trying to deprive Holocaust survivors of kosher meals.
Now, I think a good rule of personal attacks is believability. If an attack sounds true, then it has believability.
The Kosher/Holocaust survivor attack reeked of desperation in every way possible and just like it was blown out of proportion.
And then there were Newt's excuses for losing the Debates, which I've commented on before. They actually hurt Newt's own "Great Debater" argument for himself.
Also, Newt hit Mitt just about everywhere but where Mitt was vulnerable: Romneycare.
So all Mitt had to do was hit Newt hard enough and let Newt do the rest of Mitt's work for him.
And by Tuesday Mitt was looking very thick-skinned while Newt looked incredibly thin-skinned.
Now, where to go from here.
Newt is in trouble. He needs money and if he keeps acting like, well, Newt Gingrich, then he will be in deeper trouble. All Mitt has to do is hit him hard enough and Newt will show himself as a thin-skinned creature incapable of taking what he dishes out.
Mitt is in good shape but has a huge weak spot: Message.
Mitt won mainly by pummeling Newt. After SC Team Mitt went into panic mode and decided to bury Newt in FL, and they did.
But now they have to, if they want to secure the nomination, he needs to present a strong conservative argument FOR him rather than against Newt.
And I don't think Mitt can hit Santorum that hard. Sick child, and fresh memories of the brutal FL campaign. It would be like kicking a puppy.
He'd come across as a jerk.
So Mitt might have to slow down the personal attacks a bit, enough to put forth a positive message with a bold, conservative plan.
Krauthammer pointed out that right now he is simply making an argument for Mitt. But what is Mitt's plan for America?
This is Newt's strong-point. Even if he sounds like a wacko, at least he HAS a plan. Mitt doesn't appear to.
So Mitt needs to improve on his messaging and Newt needs to stop being Newt.
If they keep with the personal attacks then the primary season will be France, c.1916
Yes, I simply regurgitated points made by Krauthammer, Rove, and others.
But they are right.
BevfromNYC said...
Sooooo, I had to work late and I'm guessing Romney won by a lot.
14 points
Kit, Excellent analysis. I think you're right. I think Romney had very targeted attacks at Newt's weaknesses and Newt played right into those attacks with his own response, which was wild, erratic and childish. Newt's attacks by comparison lacked believability and sounded like things one candidate says to smear another rather than legitimate criticism.
And by the end of the weak, Romney looked like the adult and Newt looked like an angry child. In effect, Newt killed himself.
Also, I think we can't underestimate the debate performances in this instance. Newt put all of his eggs in the debate basket and then fell flat in his two tries in Florida. People suddenly realized that if all he was offering was a chance to beat Obama in the debates and he couldn't even beat Romney, then he really wasn't offering anything useful.
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