Wednesday, August 1, 2012

It's Like Likability And Like Stuff

Whoops. For months now, the left has consoled itself with the idea that because Obama rates more likable in polls than Romney, voters will choose him in November even though their answers to every other poll question show a pro-Romney blowout in the works. A new poll by The Hill casts serious doubt on that. Let’s talk about the Senate too.

I Like You, But I’m Not “In Like” With You. Polls have consistently shown Obama doing much better than Romney in the likability category. This seems a strange contradiction given that every other indicator goes against Obama. So what is going on? Looking at the way people make decisions, it strikes me that this high likeability really indicates that the voters have already made up their minds. In other words, since they’ve already decided, there have no reason to generate dislike for him to aid their decision. This fits with his amazingly steady low approval rating.

And now we have more reason to question the likability number. Indeed, according to a new poll by The Hill, 93% of likely voters said that competence and policies matter more than likability. That’s horrible news for Obama. Once you get away from likability, Obama’s in deep trouble. Even the The Hill, whose polls do lean left, found that 47% of voters share Romney’s values compared to 44% for Obama, 48% view Romney as the stronger leader compared to 44% for Obama, and 46%-44% view Romney as more trustworthy.

Interestingly, The Hill uses these numbers to conclude that Obama’s attacks on Romney “as a heartless corporate raider responsible for layoffs, outsourcing and tax secrecy” have “largely failed to change the narrative in the race.” Yep. So it sounds like all those conservative blogs that were pounding the table that Romney wasn’t responding correctly have been proven wrong. Imagine that.

Senate Math. With 98 days to go until we can upgrade from the Moron to the Mormon, there is another aspect of the election we should consider: the Senate. The Republicans need to win the Senate to get their policies in place. Romney can make some changes through agency rules and the such, but any sort of significant policy changes just won’t be possible. So what are the odds the Republicans will win the Senate? Not as high as you would think.

The Republicans need to gain four seats to control the Senate, three if Romney wins. There are 33 Senate seats up for reelection this time. The Democrats are defending 22 of those. And of the eight seats considered most endangered, the Democrats hold six of those. Should be simple, right?

Well, not quite. Right now, it looks like the Republicans will pick up North Dakota, Nebraska and Missouri for sure. However, they may lose Maine and Massachusetts. In the key swing states of Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Ohio, the Republicans have compelling candidates, but they still trail. Everything I know about Virginia tells me the Republicans will win that, but the polls don’t reflect that yet either. So based on this, we would be looking at anywhere from -2 to +7 seats, with a more likely result between +1 to +5.

That said, in the last several elections, the undecided seats have tended to sweep to one party, and that’s the party with the momentum. That would be the Republicans. Moreover, Obama’s lack of coattails and excitement will hurt the Democrats in each of these states except maybe Ohio, where blacks are likely to turn out in huge numbers. I personally think the Republicans will gain five seats, but we won’t know until we get a lot closer. This will be much closer than it should have been.

Here Come The Excuses. Finally, the Democrats are starting to build up excuses for the loss they are expecting. The most used excuse is likely to be Voter ID laws. These laws were passed in six swing states, including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin, as well as several other less competitive states, and the left is claiming that these laws are aimed at blacks and the young, who apparently are incapable of getting state identification cards for some reason. They have even attached a number to this issue to make it sound scientific: 5,000,000!! Said Politico:
At least 5 million voters, predominantly young and from minority groups sympathetic to President Barack Obama, could be affected by an unprecedented flurry of new legislation by Republican governors and GOP-led legislatures to change or restrict voting rights by Election Day 2012.
Yeah, ok. It’s no coincidence that the enthusiasm of both of these groups is down right now, probably in about the exact amount the left claims will be affected by these Voter ID laws. Not to mention that if these groups wanted to foil us in our dastardly plan, they could actually go get a valid license and register to vote. Imagine that. But that wouldn’t give the Democrats an excuse, would it?

No doubt, more excuses will be forthcoming soon. Want to help them with some suggestions?

P.S. Don't forget, it WAS Star Trek Tuesday at the film site.

164 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cruz won in Texas. :)

Joel Farnham said...

Obama became too white while in office. He didn't show enough of his blackness. ... NAACP

Obama became too black while in office. He didn't show enough of his crackerness. ... DNC

Obama became too brilliant while in office. He didn't show enough of his human-ness. ... MSM

Jen said...

It's just too hard to focus on running a good campaign with all this bad economic news.

upgrade from the Moron to the Mormon, LOL!

Joel Farnham said...

SEIU didn't beat up enough people. ... Michelle O.

ACORN didn't sign up enough dead people. ... Chicago Thug

American People are too arrogant. ... France

American People are not sharia compliant. ... Muslim Brotherhood

American People rely too much on the internet. ... Putin

Joel Farnham said...

Obama didn't feature AGW. ... Al Gore

Obama was bottle fed as a baby. ... Bloomberg

Obama ran afoul of the vast right-wing conspiracy. ... H. Clinton

Obama didn't have the "right" intern. ... B. Clinton

Obama trusted the American People. ... Chavez

Obama killed Osama too soon. ... V. Jarrett

Joel Farnham said...

Main Stream Media never gave Obama a chance. They are so in love with Romney. ... Daily Kos

Tennessee Jed said...

I hate to be a complete spoilsport, but I actually don't even like him. He is a liar! (lol) It is important to win the senate so I do hope some of those break our way.

USS Ben USN (Ret) said...

I'm with Jed. It's impossible for me to like fascist liars of the magnitude of Obama.
I don't like lying fascists either.

Not to mention Obama thumbs his nose at our Constitution and our laws any chance he gets.

No, I would not have a beer or waffles with this turd in chief.

Anthony said...

Likability matters a lot in presidential races(people with no charisma tend not to win elections) but the record of the prior administration matters a lot too. Obama was the Dem's strongest candidate but I think any Democrat not named Edwards would have won in 2008.

On a similar note, any Republican that isn't crazy and isn't prone to hanging themselves with their tongue is guaranteed to win in 2012. Romney is such a candidate.

Patriot said...

I think the fact that he has finally had to be held accountable for something, has the most plausibility for his piss poor performance indicators.

From what I have read, he has never....ever...been held to account for the effects of something he did or made a decision on. ("Present")

That, combined with the internets and evil VRWC bloggers, the electorate finally have a chance to appraise his abilities. No more sycophantic professors, "mentors," activist groups, etc. to run interference for him because of his pretty boy looks and mellifluous way of speaking.

That and "off the cuff" comments have really come back to show us who this guy really is..... and you know, many Americans don't buy it. The rest of the world didn't buy it all along (Olympics snub) and saw through his b.s. Many here are now seeing him for what he really is.....some will never see, but that's to be expected.

AndrewPrice said...

Anon, Good for him. I'm glad to see more Tea Party favorites win in the primaries.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, The problem with the kind of empty-suit campaign Obama ran, where he was all things to all people, is that once you start having to make decisions, you quickly turn out not to be what people expected because they expected you to be something more like their fantasy candidates. Obama is paying the price for that.

AndrewPrice said...

Jen, Even worse, it's too hard to focus on being President with all this bad economic news... better to play golf and wait for everything to improve before you get doing Presidential stuff..

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, LOL! Nice list of excuses. I'm sure they will be used. :) I particularly like the one about him not having the right intern.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, Who's a liar? Are you endorsing Obama on us?

AndrewPrice said...

Ben, Would you have waffle beer with him though? ;)

Yeah, there's not much to like about Obama, especially the further we get into his term. He tried to come across as fairly apolitical early on, but he's since gone into lie, cheat, steal, grab mode and he's utterly shameless about it.

tryanmax said...

The Hill poll just underlines what I and others have been saying for some time now: the usual rules are out the window. It's been taken as a given for as long as I'm aware that likability matters in presidential politics. But this is the first election cycle where the talking-heads have felt so compelled to remind us of that at every turn. ...as though they are trying to remind the peons of their place.

Andrew, I think your interpretation is spot-on. Obama polls as "likable" because the decision has already been made. Also, Romney's supposed "unlikability" is a completely sort than that which plagued Gore and Kerry. Plus, ever since the "beer summit" I think people have largely abandoned the I'd-have-a-beer-with-the-guy test.

As to excuses, the Democrats are endlessly creative in that department. They don't need my help. But if the GOP doesn't take the Senate, you can bet the party and the radio talkers will blame Romney.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I agree. I think Bush was so toxic that basically whoever the Democrats ran would have won unless they imploded. Obama fit the mold perfectly because he ran a substance free campaign that spoke in very vague terms about good things -- restoring America, healing the racial divide, a new way, etc. No substance at all which could upset anyone... all puppies and unicorns but with "fake-harsh" sounding warnings that we would need to feed and walk the unicorn every day.

But his term has made him toxic now and the Republicans are in the identical position the Democrats were in in 2008. And Romney fits the bill perfectly to win the election because he's bland and unobjectionable. I think a Rick Santorum would be getting blown out by now, but fortunately we're not stuck with him. So I think Romney winning is inevitable.

AndrewPrice said...

Patriot, I think that's right. Obama's entire record is one of never having to make decisions and, even worse, never having been held to account for those decision. This is the first time he has ever had a record he had to run on, and it's also the first time he's ever faced a challenger who didn't implode. This is all new to him and his team and they clearly are not up to the task.

And you're right about the off-the-cuff comments. Those have really been eye openers because they've displayed a fundamental misunderstanding of an disagreement with the experiences of all other Americans.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I don't recall where I read this, but apparently the most likeable candidate has won every election since they began tracking likeability.

And you're right, all the old formulas are out the window this time. But that's because of the unique circumstances at play here -- a novice President with fundamentally anti-American policies, the worst lingering recession since the 1930s, fear of being called racist for criticizing, a new media which broke the monopoly of the old media, etc. This is a very different election. And when you look at all the polls and behaviors, the likeability poll is the only outlier -- and it can be explained quite easily in ways that are not good for Obama but not in ways that are good for him. So is it smarter to consider the likeability rule broken or all other data somehow irrelevant?

You're right about the Senate too, they'll blame Romney.

BevfromNYC said...

Oops, now the Coalition of African-Americans Pastors is mounting opposition to the Dem's Gay marriage platform and encouraging people to rethink their support of Obama. This is an interesting turn of events. I wonder if the MSM and the mayors of Boston and Chicago will denounce them and tell them to take their churches elsewhere?

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, That will be an interesting conundrum for the MSM to solve. What do you do when two groups are defined by the MSM as incapable of doing/being wrong disagree so fundamentally? Who do you side with?

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew - I have a sneaking suspicion that the MSM "Ignore" button will be pushed on this one. It would be embarrassing to the President and we can't have that.

And btw, there are over 3700 pastors joining in. That's alot of congregations.

Tennessee Jed said...

Andrew - no, no, not at all. Merely pointing out that while it may spoil the party for those pollsters who always gave B.O. a higher "likability" rating than Romney, it has never been strictly 100% matter of his policies for me. I have never even particularly liked Obama as a person. He is an arrogant and mean spirited liar who has always unleashed Axelrod to personally try and destroy his opponents

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I get that feeling too, that this is going to be one of those issues the MSM deems "not worthy" of mentioning... under pain of death.

That is a lot of pastors. That's going to make it very hard for them to treat this like a couple of rogue individuals.

Individualist said...

Andrew

I think it is a huge mistake to make the Driver's License bureau to Voter Registration. It is making renewing your license a nightmare here in Florida.

I have a freind who is a recove4ring addict. We are trying to get her back on her feet. She has had some problem renewing her license because she did not have her birth certificate or two peices of mail with her current address (becasue she was living in shelters and motels and did not have one). We finally got all of this and no she can't renew it.

Why, because she did not change her name when she separated from her husband and now needs a copy of a marraige license from California. The whole thing is absurd. They have her picture in their computer and access to all of these records.

When I recently rennewe mine I had to call mey insurance company and get my insurances card from a year before because my current card did not cover the time I got a ticket for not haiving it. At the time the cop verified my insurance from the USAA number I gave him.

I am unsure why they are doing this in the state of Florida but my suspicion is that the Dems insisted the law be this obtusely enforced in order to link voter registration to the DL because they want a reason to overturn the law so that they can go back to padding the voter rolls.

It really pisses me off to no end. We are trying to get this person a real job and it is as if the government is trying to force her into subsistance with this nonsense.

Sorry but it angers me.....

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, Oh, ok, I understand you now. I thought you meant spoil our party, as in you think Romney is a liar. I misread your comment.

I agree completely about Obama. He's arrogant, mean-spirited and a liar.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, Pretty much every state I've been in places the voter registration with the DMV and/or the county. It's never really been a problem as far as I can see.

DUQ said...

I don't need to like someone to want them as president, I need to respect them. I respect Romney, I don't respect Obama.

tryanmax said...

Andrew, perhaps I should clarify--the rules that have broken are the ones the media wonks rely on most, and those are generally the "easy" rules.

The likability poll is a shortcut. The idea is inherently nebulous. Under normal circumstances, I would expect the "likable" candidate to win high marks in most categories from most respondents--albeit those categories may be different from respondent to respondent. But according to this year's polls, 0bama is likable for no reason at all.

On another note, Gallup has tracked likability since 1960, so I would venture that your source is incorrect about every election being won by the most likable candidate. It has been a relible indicator, especially since Reagan, but I don't think the MSM adopted it as a "rule" until Gore and Kerry both struck out--and only then as a way to besmirch stupid voters.

I think the biggest reason the rules are out the window, this round at least, is that the country is percieved to be in a crisis. It's at those times that voters are more likely to step out of the "likability" habit and pick who is seen as most competent.

tryanmax said...

DUQ, that's a good notion. I wonder what would happen if the pollsters traded "likability" for "respectability"?

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, Excellent point. I wonder if anyone is polling "do you respect"?

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I think you're right. The rules that are out the window are the simplest rules the MSM analysts follow, such as likeability = win.

I think what they're missing is exactly what you say, that in the past likeability has been a generic catchall for "everything else is going well." But in this case, we see a huge disconnect where Obama gets pummeled on everything else, except likeability. And rather than ask themselves what it really means, they instead stick with the idea that it's a still the overriding catchall.

I think it's a warning, frankly. And I think the warning is that voters have written him off -- as I say in the article.

In terms of my source being right or wrong, I never looked it up.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I think it would be interesting to see what happens if they switch like to respect. I'll bet that would give us a much more clear signal and a very different result.

DUQ said...

tryanmax and Andrew, I would think Obama would get crushed and then the MSM would try to explain why people don't need to respect someone to elect them, they just need to like them.

rlaWTX said...

Totally OT:
haven't read anything - just sharing: Cruz won!!!
http://www.mywesttexas.com/editors_picks/article_378d94fa-db79-11e1-94b9-0019bb2963f4.html

Like I said yesterday, Dewhurst has been a good LtGov - but his attack ads were AWFUL!!!!!!!!
And Cruz has a good story, strong vision for this election cycle.

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, That would be my guess too. The spinning would make your head dizzy.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, I don't know much about Cruz, but it sounds like he's a good guy. So I'm happy about this turn of events. :)

T-Rav said...

P.S. Don't forget, it's Star Trek Tuesday at the film site.

I knew it! I knew it! The space-time continuum is breaking down!

ScyFyterry said...

I can't see likeability mattering if people don't like anything else about him. There are lots of people I like that I would never trust to run something.

ScyFyterry said...

Bev, Wow, that's a lot of congregations. This is going to be a problem for them!

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Don't worry, the space time continuum is ok. This is just what happens when you shift articles at the last minute.

AndrewPrice said...

Terry, I agree. Likeability may have correlated with prior election victories, but it didn't cause them.

T-Rav said...

Well then, maybe you can explain why the hands on my watch are moving backwards.

I figured you would be pretty pleased by Cruz's victory in Texas. His opponent was endorsed by your favorite person (rhymes with Mick Ferry).

Individualist said...

Andrew

The problem is that here in Florida they forced the Voter Registration to anyone that gets a valid drivers license. You used to have to go to the a different office and give ID's and addresses to get the Voter card. Now you don't need it.

They had some big stink about the Voter ID's being compromised because anyone could go to the DL bureau and get an ID or license and use this. So they have this push to ensure the ID's are quaalified.

I can understand to a certain extent Birth Certificates and SSN cards. I can even live with the two peices of mail requirement though I think it ridiculous especially when they have your information in their computer.

But in Florida they seem to be looking for any pendantic reason to deny someone a renewal. The ticket they wanted a card for I had already paid. Why are they even worrying about getting my insurance one year in the past. Let's say I did not have insuruance then. Shame on me but so what. I had a valid insurance card at the time I was renewing. Should I be refused a license now. Even if we want to use the argument you should have had it then well I paid the fine.

And this woman who can't look for a job for over a month now becuase they need a copy of the marraige license from several years ago (she has a legal sepearation but never paid for a divorce but it is probably over due to time away from her X anyways). Why the heck do they reasonably need this. They don't. Especially since the reason they ask for the document is it is in their computer.

Everyone in Florida is telling me what a nightmare it is to renew the license. I have to believe this was due to a political fight. The GOP here wanted Voter ID's validated so the dems in the bureaucracy are doing this to make it so difficult that people balk and have the policy voted out.

rlaWTX said...

More OT: I see that Anon beat me to it - but I was asleep at 215am when (s)he posted!

We needed some excitement instead of the same ol', same ol'.

The Dem candidate said he was the only candidate from a real party because the tea party has co-opted the GOP. After Cruz coming from behind (34-44 in Primary) to win by 13points, I don;t think bashing the tea party is really the way to go - but I'm not a TX Dem (a really frustrated demographic!)

BevfromNYC said...

Indi - It would be interesting to see if they are actually "unwittingly" targeting certain, shall we say, stereotypical non-progessive types with their over-enthusiastic ID document verification blitz...

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I get the feeling everyone who wanted to be known as a conservative endorsed Cruz. Even someone whose name sounds like Haira Failin endorse him. I hear she's also waded into your home state now and has endorsed someone.

Sorry about your watch. Perhaps the space time continuum has collapsed?

rlaWTX said...

T-Rav: it was Star Trek Tuesday yesterday too, so I think we are sitting still rather than moving backward... maybe it's your eyes and not your watch?

Likability: I like the suggestion about polling respect. I know 1 person locally who likes TOTUS - and he's [1] weird and [2] a die-hard Dem (redundant). TOTUS is condescending, arrogant, irritating, dangerous, narcissistic, untruthful, changeable, and annoying.

As for the Senate - I vote for +5.

Did you hear that a lib SuperPAC has targeted 10 Reps in this election - with top billing going to Col. West? I'm thinking about contributing to his campaign. Just 'cause I can.

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I've never run into those kinds of problems. Unless you're suspended or can't produce a valid form of ID or proof of insurance, then getting a license is pretty much automatic. And getting a renewal is usually done through the mail these days everywhere I've lived. You just pay the fee.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, I suspect that bashing the Tea Party is not the way to win friends in Texas.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, You can bet that the Justice Department will be looking for any sign of it... unless it goes against those who don't support Obama.

LawHawkRFD said...

All grifters, con men, and snake-oil salesmen are likeable. That's how they sell their fraudulent goods to gullible people. Obama is no different in that. Let's just hope that "burn me once, shame on you, burn me twice, shame on me" works in the upcoming election. Grifters, con men and snake-oil salesmen know better than to try the same con twice with the same people. Obama isn't quite as smart.

Still, in a nation that hangs on every move of the Kardasians, I lose sleep over the "likeability" factor.

I don't know about Florida's DMV, but in California, motor-voter registration was designed to make getting a license easier for almost everyone, including illegal immigrants. Take your test, get your license, drive around the DMV office, go inside, and register to vote. Renewal is done by mail for the next two periods, unless you get more than one traffic citation. Indi's friend is apparently caught up in an entirely different system. I'm pretty sure I could get Niko the Wonder Dog a DMV ID here.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, That could be. Maybe time has stopped and we just don't realize it? In any event, I changed it to "WAS" rather than is. Maybe that will set things right? ;)

I vote for +5 as well. :)

Yes, we should start polling respect.

I had not heard West was being targeted, but it doesn't surprise me. His very existence is bad for them.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

The laws surrounding the renewal of a driver's license as well as getting a driver's license from out of state are imposed by HOMELAND SECURITY. I couldn't get a new license here in Tennessee because I didn't have my birth certificate. Getting a new one from California has been a nightmare.

It is almost as if it is made harder than necessary in order to keep a person in a particular state. Or to make them go on Welfare once they move from one state to another. This requirement also empowers a small group of Democrat Voters to control things. DMV's were pretty bad prior to the new requirements from HOMELAND SECURITY, now they are downright nasty.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, I think that's been the case in most states, getting an ID is really simple -- almost too simple.

Very true about con-men. Their trade is getting people to like them. Politicians are similar, except they traffic in promises. And the problem for Obama is that he now has a record of unfulfilled promises plus three years of exposure as a man who never meant anything he had promised. That makes it impossible for him to hide.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, I've never had to produce a birth certificate to get a license. I just had to hand them my old license and they gave me a new one.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

You had to produce one for your first DL, and up until two years ago, all anyone had to do to get a new DL in a different state was have a valid DL from another state, turn it in and get one in your new state. That has changed drastically.

New Regulations from HOMELAND SECURITY require you to have more information especially if you are from a different state.

If you moved from Colorado to Tennesee now, you should take your birth cert, have a residence in the new state long enough to get mail with your name on it. I also have to show my marriage license. Your SSN card.

In comparison, all I need to get food stamps is show up and state that I have cause to get them.

I suspect that in the near future, in order to correct this all, we will have to get internal passports.

LawHawkRFD said...

Joel: My daughter needed her California birth certificate recently, but her mom had just moved and couldn't find it. She went online with the Los Angeles County Clerk/Registrar/Recorder's office and had it in less than two weeks. Amazingly, I needed mine last year, and Chicago (Cook County) got it to me in less than ten days.

I don't know which office you requested the birth certificate from, but if you ordered it from the State Department of Vital Statistics/Public Health, that might be the explanation. They even warn you in advance that their delivery time is extremely long, and the application process is very convoluted. Go straight to the County you were born in.

BevfromNYC said...

I don't remember having to do anything in NYC but fill out a form and hand over my old Texas license. All of the renewals are by mail or online. Though I have renewed my license in person at the very old DMV in lower Manhattan (probably where one registered their horse & buggy) just for the experience. I reaffirmed my life choices.

And I don't remember having to do anything except fill out the voters' registration card and mail it in.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, I haven't run into any of that. Fortunately, at this point, Colorado seems happy to let me renew by mail with no hassles. I'm not even sure I have a copy of my birth certificate.

Jen said...

I had a problem getting my license over 17 years ago. I had moved to a north neighboring state, and lived there for 4 years. When I moved back to my native state (had been licensed here as well), they wouldn't even accept the fact that I had already had a license here, and a valid one from where I came from. There were three lists (A,B, & C), and had to have a certain number from each list. Most of the items on the list didn't apply to me (marriage license, children, etc.), and had to try and find my high school diploma. Luckily, I knew where it was after moving. I went with my (then) boyfriend, and he had no trouble, but that usually doesn't happen to me. Almost nothing is ever straightforward.

As to the space-time continuum, I knew it was early when I posted, and hadn't been to sleep yet, so it threw me for a loop wondering what happened. I thought I had missed a day.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, LOL! I'm glad you got the chance to reaffirm your life choices. :)

I've had the same experience you have, I just hand in the one license and get the next, the last several have been renewed by mail.

AndrewPrice said...

Jen, Now that you mention it (the A,B,C lists), I ran into that in West Virginia. They basically made it impossible to get a license because they wanted things I couldn't produce because I didn't own a house -- like a utility statement with my name on it. So I kept my Virginia license and paid taxes to Va instead of WbyGodVa.

Joel Farnham said...

Guys,

It isn't the way it is now. I am telling you, the way it works has been changed by HOMELAND SECURITY. Getting Birth certs from out of state and everything else you need HAS been made extremely hard.

LawHawk, your daughter was still in the same state. You haven't had to get one from out of California.

Fortunately I found a copy of mine and I have gotten some mail here, but this has been over a year to acquire one. I now have to drive over 50 miles to get to a DMV that can make me one.

When I was there over a year ago, DMV person TOLD ME these new requirements came from HOMELAND SECURITY.

T-Rav said...

Darn it, Jen! We'd managed to go several days without giving Andrew an excuse to rip on West Virginia, and now you went and screwed it all up. (sigh)

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, That's depressing. I should probably try to get my birth certificate now just in case I ever need it.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, We need a clock, like a counter: "Days Without Andrew Ripping On West Virginia." :)

T-Rav said...

Andrew, yes, she's endorsed our ex-treasurer, Sarah Steelman, who is apparently a "mama grizzly." ..... I like Palin and everything, but if that woman is a mama grizzly, I'm a trout.

I'll vote for her if she wins the primary, I'd just rather she didn't. I get the feeling she's one of those who tried to grab the Tea Party label to advance her career.

Barack Obama said...

Hey, if you can't find yours, I know this great place in Honolulu where they crank out some fake ones! Tell 'em Soetoro sent you.

AndrewPrice said...

Ok, I can't believe I didn't see someone eventually mentioning Obama. LOL!

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rout, I know nothing about her, except that Palin's track record has not been very good at spotting actual conservatives and I thought you all had a solidly conservative candidate already... can't remember his name though.

LawHawkRFD said...

Joel: That must be very recent. I live in California and got my Illinois birth certificate with no problem. That was almost exactly a year ago, so things may have changed.

Jen said...

T-Rav, I didn't know about WbyGodVA, and why Andrew rips on it. I didn't even mention it.

Andrew, I couldn't keep my old license. We had to switch vehicle insurance, and that meant, I had to have a valid license in the state which I lived. I also had a problem getting phone service. I was trying to avoid deposits because money was real tight at that time. I was asked if I had previously had a phone in my name. I said "yes", and was asked if I remembered my old number, which was another "yes". It didn't matter, they still charged a deposit, and I had other hoops to jump through.

OT: I've been hearing that Chick-fil-A is getting overwhelmed with business.

AndrewPrice said...

Jen, Andrew rips on WbyGodVa because of all the God-forsaken-hell-holes on this planet, it's the most God-forsaken-est.

I needed insurance too, though I think I'm the only person in WbyGodVa who actually had any, but I decided it was easier to lie. They really did make it impossible for me to get a license.

I still have never been to a Chick-fil-A.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, I don't know who's being considered "solidly conservative." I know I'm voting for Todd Akin, who's one of our congressmen. He's got a good rating from the ACU and voted against NCLB and the Wall Street bailout, so he seems trustworthy to me. The other guy is John Brunner, a businessman who I don't know a lot about, but he seemed to me to be giving signs of squishiness. So.

I won't be able to get to a Chick-Fil-A today, but word is lines are out the doors in many places. You should totally go to one. The chicken strips and milkshakes are great, and I've never yet had a complaint about the service or cleanliness.

Tennessee Jed said...

I agree with your premise about con men, Andrew. They have to be smooth purveyors of B.S. But after people realize who and what they are, they just become sleazy. Nobody would vet Obama prior to 2008. Now he has to run on his record unless he can successfully distract the electorate. Honest people can disagree whether he ever meant what he promised or not or was merely incompetent. I tend to believe he is a lot of both. Either way, he comes across more as sleazy than likable.

BTW, I've been watching Perry Mason on Hallmark Movie Channel, and today's episode (1959) featured a very young George Takei, 8 years before Star Trek.

CrispyRice said...

You oughta try Chick-Fil-A, Andrew. It's yummy! Why not try it today?? ;)

Rush just called it a Tea Party Rally without a central location. He's so right! We're going for dinner.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Ok, those aren't the names I knew. I must have heard that wrong. I thought there was an ex-governor or something in the race.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, That's always interesting when you run across people in roles before they became famous.

I think that's right about con-men and about Obama. Once they're exposed, the likeability becomes seen as sleaze. And Obama strikes me as pretty sleazy.

AndrewPrice said...

Crispy, I'm trying to avoid fast food. :(

CrispyRice said...

Well, it's good to be healthy, too, Andrew. We want you around for a long time! Stay strong!

AndrewPrice said...

Don't worry Crispy, an old blog medicine man once assured me that I cannot die. And so far, that's proven to be pretty accurate. :)

Koshcat said...

As typical with grifters, over time their story starts to fall apart. I have come to really dislike Obama and I don't think any of the other countries' leaders like him either (except maybe Chavez). Correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed like Bush was constantly either visiting or hosting foreign leaders. Something that I hardly see Barry doing at all. I get the feeling he doesn't like it. I don't know if there is an angle for Romney to take advantage of though. Of course the White House is calling Romney's overseas trip "a disaster." Spin, spin, spin.

Koshcat said...

Montana's senate seat is in play for GOP as well. Tester is a good guy but has drifted too far left with some of his votes upsetting many of the residents. Rehberg currently holds the house seat and is running against him. Since MT only has one house seat, he is well known across the state. Rehberg holds a slight lead.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

The Chick-Fil-A appreciation day is probably the biggest story the Media is deliberately not covering. Forty-five minute waits to order are normal today. So, you are safe because TODAY fast-food from Chick-Fil-A won't be fast.

Wasn't today the day gays were supposed to have the smooch-in at all Chick-Fil-As? The media must be fuming because they can't get to the Chick-Fil-As to film the smooch-in for all the customers are in the way.

Also, this could also be an indication about how November is going to be like.

CrispyRice said...

"I intend to live forever.... so far, so good!"

AndrewPrice said...

Koshcat, Romney's trip score major points all around. Calling it a disaster is the most blatant bit of spin I've seen out of the MSM in some time now.

I think you're right about Obama not being actually likeable. I see no foreign leaders or congressional leaders who like him personally. You don't see the public defending him or turning out for his rallies. Even the MSM remains oddly distant.

I'd like to think that MT is in play, but there is nothing I can say about that. All the pollster say Tester will win and I have no personal knowledge of the race which would tell me otherwise. I'm happy to hear there might be more to the story though.

AndrewPrice said...

Crispy, Exactly! :)

CrispyRice said...

Joel, I think the smooch-in is Friday. Wouldn't want to show up on the same day and let the media see them be overpowered by the Chick-Fil-A supporters, yanno? Guaranteed that they'll be covered Friday like the hottest news story ever!

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, Things like the Chil-fil-A thing are definitely an indication of voter intensity and momentum. I think this is a bad sign for Obama because it means that the Tea Party crowd hasn't stopped being involved.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, nope, no ex-governors. Which, given our state's recent run of Chief Executives, is probably a good thing. :-/

AndrewPrice said...

A smooch in? Some people need a life.

T-Rav said...

Hmmm, and Friday was actually the day I was planning to grab some Chick-Fil-A. If anyone glitterbombs me, I will be dropping the f-bomb on 'em. (No, the other one.)

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, LOL! I haven't heard anything specific about your governors, but that often seems to be the case with governors. It seems that less-than-absolute power corrupts too.

AndrewPrice said...

There are two f-bombs?

Koshcat said...

I think they are being overly optomistic. Romney has a large lead in MT, which went for McCain. I attached a recent article that discusses this problem for Tester. I suspect this one will go down to the wire. Even if Tester wins, he will probably be one of those senators who will move more toward the center.

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2012307300014&nclick_check=1

AndrewPrice said...

Koshcat, Thanks for the link. I'll check that out because it would be nice if Montana was in the in-play category.

Here's your link: LINK

Anthony said...

I'm skipping Chick Fil A today (I don't like waiting in long lines and my money will spend just as well on a normal day) but I've seen articles on Fox, CNN and MSNBC indicating that its a resounding success.

People who disagree with Chick Fil A's stance will take their business elsewhere and that is their right, I just hope that politicians resist the temptation to abuse their power in order to harm Chick-fil-A.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/08/01/nyc-council-speaker-christine-quinn-asks-nyu-to-evict-chick-fil/?intcmp=related

Individualist said...

Joel

We are both Florida Residents and have been for over 10 years.

This is a Florida thing I suspect it to be political because about a year ago there was a lot of bellyaching that the GOP in Florida can't have verification of Voter Registration with a DL.

The rules, here are just nuts, old insurance cards, marraige licenses, two peices of mail..... it makes no sense - - and it is new --was not like this last time as Andrew said you just walked in paid $20 bucks and got a renewal. I had to pay $65 and got harassed for the price.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

The first Chick-Fil-A Bomb Threat. This is in West Virginia.

BevfromNYC said...

Anthony - Yes, our own little City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, a/k/a NYC Mayor wannabe, stepped into the CFA controversy and was backhanded by pretty much everyone. She sent a letter on official City Council letter head admonishing New York University to rid the city of the pestilence that is Chick-Fil-A (the only one is inside an student only NYU building and happens to be closed for the summer). You see, Ms. Quinn just recently married her same sex partner and she was just acting out. As she says, this was not done at the behest of the City Council even though the letter she sent was on official Counsel letterhead. Oops, no one bought her lame excuse.

I sent an email to her exclaiming that I was thrilled to learn that all of the other issues in the city - the 10%-14% unemployment, 10% rise in violent crimes, and our out of control deficit - had been solved so that she was free to use her office to shut down otherwise thriving businesses that gainfully employ people and pay taxes to the city, county and state.

I didn't get a response...

tryanmax said...

I don't know about all this birth certificate requirement stuff. All I know is that I can't speak to a government employee without getting a voter registration form waved under my nose. I recently contacted the Child Support Enforcement Office and, in the same packet as the other information, yet another voter registration form.

tryanmax said...

OT: I just had a reminder of why I don't argue things on FB anymore. It's like trying to argue with a bumper sticker.

rlaWTX said...

RE Chick-fil-a
It is insanity out here - where every day is Chick-fil-a day! Their drive-thru circles their building because they have a small parking lot. I am seeing pix that the building has been circled twice and the line is now down the street and blocking traffic on one of our busy streets.

I read an article on PJMedia with one of the best quotes I have seen about the redefined marriage issue: "But the right to express, exercise and live by your faith and conscience is far more essential to human liberty and dignity than the government’s official approval of your relationships. If what gay activists really want is the power to silence those who disapprove of them, then to hell with them." Andrew Klavan's column

rlaWTX said...

tryanmax: "argue with a bumper sticker" excellent description!

Bumpersticker said...

Don't B a H8er tryanmax, listen to the children and believe the whales.

Kit said...

Florida could also swing our way. But it could be tight there. LINK

Here is the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee's map of Senate races
LINK

tryanmax said...

Hey, Bumpersticker, "coexist" with this: #*$&%@

rlaWTX said...

Here's another (similar take) on the Senate race:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/08/a-look-at-the-senate-battlefield.php


[One of these days we need to have a Commentarama HTTP lesson...]

T-Rav said...

rla, just do the following:

right-click on and copy the web address, then go to the comment box and type followed by LINK or whatever you want the name of your link to be, then finally . It's just that easy!

T-Rav said...

Ha. Well, that didn't work out too well. Maybe Andrew will have to tell you.

tryanmax said...

rla, here is the basic structure where "[" and "]" stand in for "<" and ">"

[a href="http://www.yourlinkhere.com"]LINK[/a]

Bold and italic are much simpler.

[b]bold[/b] [i]italic[/i]

Those are the only three things you can do in Blogger.

Just remember to use "<" and ">" when you do it for real.

BevfromNYC said...

rlaWTX and T-Rav - I am a Link-Challenged American and have never been able to hyperlink an article in the comments section even with an intensive Commentarama tutorial. ;-(

tryanmax said...

Oh, and if it helps to remember, "a" stands for "action" and "href" stands for "hidden reference" (or so I'm told).

rlaWTX said...

Thank you for the effort, T-Rav!!!
Thank you for the primer, tryanmax!!!

I have printed it, so if I post gobbledeegook, you'll know why!

tryanmax said...

OT again: I should have had that argument with a bumpersticker. They're less intractable than people on FB.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX and others, I'll try to put something together to help everyone. I'll use images because whenever you try to use text, it tries to convert it.

Individualist said...

This whole likeability thing started with the Clinton impeachment. The Dem's in order to explain why people put up with his cheating and lying said he was the guy you wanted to have a beer with. They tried this with Obama as well but it did not stick. They use the late night talk shows to deliver this directive from the Ministry of Truth.... (I am sorry I mean entertainment from NBC).

Fact is after the cop and the african american professor beer summit this meme for Obama became a joke.

I agree that Romney is not the guy you go to a bar with on a Friday night to shirk the wife. He is more the kind of guy you invite his wife and children over to enjoy a Sunday Barbecue and well that works for me. Romney is a lot of things and I have complained about his policies in the past but he is LIKEABLE no matter what they put in an Al Franken poll.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, Nothing fits together like bombs and chickens! Actually, that's really despicable, but that's what the modern world has come to.

rlaWTX said...

tryanmax, quite often I think that I am one of those intractable folks on fb... but I'm one of the good guys, so it's all OK!! ;)

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, Florida would be nice too. That's another state the Republicans should dominate, except they don't.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, Everything gets excused when you're the good guy! ;)

AndrewPrice said...

Indi, I think Romney is very likeable, EXCEPT in our culture, we have come to expect out public figures to be entertainers more than humans. We want to see them smile, crack the perfect joke, give speeches without flaws, and come across like some movie star.

Romney is standoffish. So he will never win the likeability race.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew - Florida is filled with former NY'ers, so it does not surprise me in the least that it's not Republican-dominated. The irony of course is that all the NY Dems move down there in their "golden years" to escape the high taxes and cost of living...oh, yeah...and the weather.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, That's true. But it's also packed with deep-south southerners in the north and Cubans in the south.

T-Rav said...

rla and tryanmax, oh, I totally admit to being one of those intractable folks. I don't mean to necessarily, but whenever I go to Facebook I see someone has posted something stupid, and five or six others are nodding their heads in sycophantic agreement, and I can--not--stop.

T-Rav said...

Since I brought up the Senate race here earlier, here's a weird thing. Lately, McCaskill has been running ads against one of the GOP challengers (Akin), announcing that he "believes in true free-market solutions, and wants small government; that's why he wants to eliminate whole federal departments," and that he "said that Barack Obama is a menace to our civilization."

I am at a total loss to understand McCaskill's campaign's reasoning. In the STL and KC markets, yes, this might get some traction; but she's playing it here in the rural out-state regions. Most people's reaction in this area would be to ask if that's an endorsement.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, It sounds like she's trying to influence the primary by getting people to vote for or against him. I'm not sure which way though.

tryanmax said...

rla, Andrew, T-raf, I'll tell you what, this guy's argument finally ended up just about being "I'm right b/c I'm the good guy." He didn't quite get there, but almost.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, I guess it's possible she's trying to get primary voters to support him, since she's losing to him by the smallest margin. That would require more brains than I give her credit for, though.

T-Rav said...

tryanmax, a recent debate on gay marriage ended with the people on the other side basically saying to me, "Hate speech should be outlawed because it's mean and hateful." Morons.

tryanmax said...

T-Rav (not raf, sorry), that's how out-of-whack our politics have gotten. You can take literally the same exact sentence and one side will see it as a positive, the other as a negative. I think it's because it's all been reduced to emotions. Why else would the media bestow such importance on such a nebulous characteristic as "likability"? And the alleged tolerance movement has turned disagreement into hatred and then declared it okay to hate the H8RZ.

patti said...

been mia all day from my cruz/cambell hangover ;)

GOOOOO, TEXAS!

tryanmax said...

I believe it. My convo today was about gay marriage, too. I took the Commentarama stance that gov't should get out of the marriage business. But since I didn't full-throat endorse it, I was a hateful bigot. (And a racist, too.) Anything that doesn't align perfectly with the agenda is branded "hate."

patti said...

p.s Andrew: i bought and posted a pic of the breakfast biscuit i ate this morning from the chick (bought more than one!). you have never been, so you probably won't try to lick the screen, but those of us who have had one of these...

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Maybe she rented a brain from somewhere?


tryanmax, That's an excellent argument to use the word to define itself.

AndrewPrice said...

Patti, It sounds like it's been a good day all around! :)

Jen said...

I'm not one to eat fast food, but I sure remember how good the Chick-fil-A sandwiches were! The problem is, there isn't one nearby--only McDonald's, BK, and Arby's, and I can even see most their signs from my front yard.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

A thought just occurred to me that Cheney's VP comments on Palin are actually a trial balloon. The reason why is Cheney is waaay too good to make such an obviously stupid observation. Palin a mistake? Cheney has been in government too long to not recognize that Palin was the reason McCain didn't have a blowout.

Also, notably Cheney won't be going to the Convention. Palin was asked to go. She hasn't said she will.

Don't get me wrong, I personally don't think she wants another anal blast from the media. So, I don't think she will go to the Convention. If she does, she won't stay for the whole Convention. Just long enough to satisfy her rabid followers.

I think Romney has hired some really good people and they are very good marketeers.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, That's an interesting idea. So do you think Romney was floating the idea of picking Palin or he was trying to kill her off?

AndrewPrice said...

Jen, If I could see McDonalds from my house, I would be dead by now.

T-Rav said...

Jen, I'm not a huge fan of having pickles on your chicken sandwiches. I generally just get the chicken strips. And the waffle fries. Lots and lots of waffle fries. :-)

AndrewPrice said...

Waffle fries? Arg. Not listening.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

I think the Romney Group (I think I am going to call Romney's administration the Romney Group from now on) wanted to know how Palin handles such a high level of criticism. Whether she becomes shrill like her detractors say she is or deals with it in an adult manner.

Kill her off? She is already dead for most people. This more than likely will rehabilitate her. It does give her a beautiful opportunity to cleanse herself from all the mud she had acquired from the last election.

Like her or not, she is a great attack dog...er grizzly.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, I like that... the Romney Group.

That's an interesting idea. It certainly would tell them how she reacts. I guess we'll see how it all plays out.

tryanmax said...

Andrew, do not, I repeat, do not move to Omaha in that case. There are only two reasons why you would not be able to see some fast-food venue from your home here. 1) Tall trees or 2) Outside city limits.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Thanks for the warning! I shall avoid Omaha!

tryanmax said...

BTW, I got new glasses. I now look 33% more like Henry Kissenger.

T-Rav said...

"Waffle fries? Arg. Not listening."

WWWWHHHHHHAAAAAAAATTTTTTTT????????!!!!!!!!!!

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Congrats on the Kissinger Upgrade.

T-Rav, Yeah... I'd rather not die. So I won't be enticed to eat more fast food.

Jen said...

T-Rav, I haven't eaten at Chick-Fil-A for years, so I've never had the waffle fries. As far as pickles, if you don't like them, take them off, and for me, it's onions--especially raw. I never hesitate to pick off/out something I don't like to eat, even if it's at someone's house.

Andrew, will power man, will power. I've just never had a preference to eat fast food. I had a high school kid tell me last year that I didn't know what I was missing by not eating at McDonald's. I said, "What? You've got to be kidding". Of course, he wasn't.

AndrewPrice said...

Jen, What's this will power you mention?

Jen said...

Andrew, to quote the Rev. Al, "Resist we much". I'm talking about the will power to resist fast food.

AndrewPrice said...

Oh, I thought you meant resist will power. I was going to say, "no problemo! I have firmly defeated my will power." :)

Jen said...

Please don't kill yourself, we need you here!:)

AndrewPrice said...

I wouldn't think of killing myself. But apparently our readers, like one Mr. T. Rav, are not averse to trying to kill me.

Death by waffle fry... :(

Jen said...

I know of an ice cream flavor called "Death by Chocolate".

AndrewPrice said...

Bennigans used to have that as a desert too. Of course, they also had the Monte Cristo.

//droooooooooool

Jen said...

Double drooool here. I've never had/heard of that one before, but it sure sounds good.

AndrewPrice said...

It's basically a deep fried turkey and cheese sandwich which they covered in powdered sugar. They would inject it straight into your veins.

obiwan2009 said...

"I agree that Romney is not the guy you go to a bar with on a Friday night to shirk the wife. He is more the kind of guy you invite his wife and children over to enjoy a Sunday Barbecue and well that works for me."

Indi, he's sort of reminds me of a boss at work, or an uncle I had, in the fact that yeah, he shows that he is in charge, but at the same time, he doesn't take attempts at insulting him all that seriously, guess I have some working to do in that field before I become a decent politician.

USS Ben USN (Ret) said...

"I think Romney has hired some really good people and they are very good marketeers."

He sure does. I've been very impressed with Sununu.

USS Ben USN (Ret) said...

I was going to say, "no problemo! I have firmly defeated my will power." :)

Where there's a will there's a way, Andrew. :^)

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