Obama And The Russian Bears

President Obama met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Monday. The two signed a framework for reducing nuclear weapons. Obama probably hadn't noticed that the breakup of the Soviet Union produced a major reduction in Russian weapons because a large number of them ended up in other former Soviet republics such as The Ukraine and Belarus. But that's another story.


This is really three stories which are intertwined. Let's call it good news, bad news, and Omigod.

First, the good news (well, maybe). There are a whole lot of nuclear weapons floating around in the world, but there is no doubt that the United States and Russia have the largest number of them by far. Many of these weapons are Cold War era, and are deteriorating. Others are simply supernumerary. If four or five hundred nukes will destroy the world at least once, why do we jointly need nearly two thousand five hundred? Now all we have to concern ourselves with is how well Russia observes agreements as compared with the predecessor Soviet Union (anybody remember "we do not have any nuclear weapons in Cuba?).

But it was a wonderful sight. Obama smiled. Medvedev smiled. Charm fairly oozed throughout the entire meeting. Together, they built a framework for a formal treaty by the end of the year. We'll cut the total weapons down to around one thousand five hundred. We'll cut the number of missiles capable of delivering the nukes to somewhere between five hundred and a thousand. With Obama's love for reducing our Air Force budget, how the extra nukes would be delivered in case of war remains unclear. Perhaps in the trunk of a GM solar-powered tinfoilmobile. But since nobody wants a nuclear war anyway, what need is there for delivery? Even Democrats came to agree that MAD (mutually-assured destruction) had worked, however terrifying the prospect. But, what the heck. This happy-happy diplomacy just feels so darned good. Diplomats and State Department bureaucrats are awaiting instructions on whether the framework will be modeled after the highly-successful framework pioneered by President Clinton and North Korea.

Ever watchful of the American economy, President Obama saved us $133 million dollars by charming Medvedev into picking up the navigation costs for American military overflights of Russian territory for emergency deployments to Afghanistan. I think the savings amounts to about ten seconds on the Obama "how fast can we spend the taxpayers' money" clock. But at least we won't be flying blind over Russia. Medvedev was also beaming when he agreed that he would not only cover the navigation costs (leaving American flights under the control of Russian air traffic-controllers during any crisis in Afghanistan), but he would also guarantee that Russian air defenses would promise not to shoot down any American planes making those overflights. Finally, peace for our time.

Now, for the bad news. President Obama is "examining options" for ending the Bush plans to deploy a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. The two nations sit in ideal positions to fend off any missile attacks on Europe originating in Iran (or any other Middle East nation adhering to the religion of peace). Stanford physicist Dean Wikening has been advising the President's staff on more optimal sites for downing the incoming missiles--particularly Turkey and Romania. Unfortunately, Wikening is neither a history nor foreign relations expert, so he is obviously unaware that the two sites are in places semi-hostile to America, and one is nearly in open support of Islamic hegemony. Someone needs to tell Wikening that the optimum location to blow up Iranian nuclear-tipped missiles is in Teheran, but I don't think the Iranians would be amenable to that solution.

Could there be a connection between the good news and the bad news? Don't forget the smile-fest in Moscow. Russia has maintained that anti-missile defense weapons in Poland and the Czech Republic would be more likely to be used against Russian than Iranian missiles. Why would we need to do that, since President Medvedev has declared America a partner in defense of the free world? Then again, if Russia didn't have any contingency plans for attacking America or Russia's European neighbors, why would Medvedev care about where we put our defensive system? Perhaps Medvedev's people also consulted with Dr. Wikening about where the defense system would be most effective.

If the United States insists on placing those systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, Obama might not be invited back for any more Moscow kumbaya moments with uber-smiler Medvedev. Love makes the world go 'round, and Obama doesn't want to miss a moment of that love. So it became incumbent on the smiling Presidents to undo all that suspicion and distrust created by the evil and unsubtle George W. Bush. How to explain that Obama is even still considering the Poland-Czech Republic option? He forthrightly told Medvedev that "there is no scenario from our perspective, in which this missile defense system would provide any protection against the mighty Russian arsenal." Well, if Obama goes through with his plans to end the missile defense systems, he is then absolutely right, and it wouldn't matter where we had planned to put them.

And finally, for the Omigod news. The meetings in Moscow are not yet over. After meeting with the mugging Medvedev, Obama will be meeting with the real power behind the throne--Vladimir Putin. To understand the Russian power structure, it is important to remember that the system doesn't work anything like the systems of the West where similar titles are given to government leaders. The President of France has real power. The President of Germany has ceremonial duties only as the head of state, but the German Chancellor has the real power as the head of government. And for that matter, the President of the United States is both the head of state and the head of government, while in England the Queen is the head of state, but the Prime Minister controls the government.

If you're not confused enough by now, let's visit the Russian system. Medvedev is the President. Putin is the Prime Minister. In the Russian system, the head of government is the man with the most guns and loyal party members. That used to be the President of Russia--V. Putin. Now it's the Prime Minister--V. Putin. Obama's highly-competent Russian translators (the ones who sent Hillary with the red button gift) translated Putin's latest statement prior to the meeting with Obama as "we wish to work closely with America." One anonymous source in the State Department thought he recognized the Russian words from a previous Russian leader, so he looked them up. What Putin actually said was "we will bury you." (OK, I made that last part up)

Putin is not a smiler. Putin is not a diplomat. Putin is immune to the greasy charm of the American President. Putin attempted to bully Bush into giving up the missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, but failed. That damned cowboy stood up to him. But Putin has already taken the measure of Barack Obama. Like Hitler with Chamberlain, Putin threatens, demands, gets his way, then holds out the promise of eternal peace.

There will be more smiling announcements and holding of hands before this is over. Obama and Medvedev will declare that they have reached agreement on the framework. Putin will barely be mentioned, and since he loves power not publicity and photo-ops, that's just fine with him. But we will not know for sure what Obama agreed to or what he may have given away until the treaty is prepared for Senate approval at the end of the year. I would like to hope it will be a good thing, but so far change of any good kind has not come out of the Obama administration. The best we can probably hope for is that Medvedev and Putin taught Obama a little something about capitalism. They obviously understand it better than he does. Karl Marx must be very confused in his grave.

Note: Subsequent to my writing of this article, the Putin-Obama meeting went forward. Obama was given a fifty-minute lecture on the Cold War and all of the mistakes America made during that period. Obama smiled, incessantly. Putin frowned most of the time. Obama later acknowledged who the real power in Russia is (Putin). Putin neither confirmed nor denied the earlier agreement(s) between Obama and Medvedev. Beyond that, the substance of the article is not changed in any appreciable way.