By 2008, the Republican Party all but killed itself with big spending, blatant influence pedaling and foreign-adventuring. Obama had a chance to drive a stake through the heart of this un-Republican Party, but he missed. Then, with amazing speed, the Democratic arrogance, missteps and total lunacies breathed life back into the Republicorpse. Now Obama and the Obamacrats are the ones staring at the inside of a coffin. Here are three reason why they aren’t getting out any time soon.
On Monday, Obama announced that he would run for a second term. Good luck. Incumbents tend to get a share of the vote roughly equal to their job approval ratings, especially when that approval rating remains consistent over time. Obama’s job approval rating has consistently hovered around 46% for about a year. This is signaling a huge disaster for Obama. And here’s why his popularity is so low:Obama’s Unrivalled Unpopularity
● A full 68% think he’s too liberal (the kiss of death in America).
It’s going to be nearly impossible for Obama to rise again when people don’t like the way he handles foreign or domestic policy, when they think he’s a poor leader, when they think he’s too liberal and when they think he’s unethical. What can he possibly do to fix that?
● Only 44% think he’s a good leader.
● Only 37% approve of his (mis)handling of national security.
● Only 34% approve of his (mis)handling of the economy.
● Only 29% think he’s ethical.
What makes Obama’s unpopularity all the more solid is that it’s been earned through a series of bad policies and missteps that continue today and which will continue well into the future. Consider this:Obama’s Policies Continue To Offend
● Obama’s big “achievement” is ObamaCare. The Democrats told themselves the public would warm to ObamaCare once they understood it. They haven’t: 58% want it repealed, only 39% want to keep it. Moreover, (1) 57% of voters know that ObamaCare will increase the deficit while only 17% stupidly expect it to reduce the deficit, (2) only 37% think ObamaCare is good for the country, and (3) 52% think it will make the quality of health care worse. So Obama’s biggest claim to fame is something that almost six in ten voters think is bad for the country, bad for medicine, and want repealed. I can’t image a worse claim to fame, except maybe being the guy who told Hitler “gee, you should try politics.”
It’s no wonder that 69% of voters remain angry at the federal government. Obama’s policies fly in the face of the public’s concerns, beliefs and desires, and unless he completely abandons them and reverses direction, his support will continue to fall. And forget about the public giving the Democrats another majority any time soon.
● After decades of blasting Reagan for “deficit spending,” the Democrats showed what true deficit spending really means, as their binge turned our deficit into a genuine national security issue. The public is in open revolt over this, with 57% of Americans wanting deep cuts even if it means a government shutdown. Yet, 58% believe Obama will try to increase spending. And with the Democrats now pathologically opposing every proposed Republican cut, the public’s view will only harden.
● Yesterday, we talked about inflation. The stock market thinks it’s coming, as does Wal-Mart’s CEO, who fears the public will be quite upset by what is coming in this next year. The current inflation is the direct result of high fuel costs because we don’t exploit the resources we have and because we are burning corn to make ethanol.
So what do you do about that? Well, 55% of Americans want to see the US produce more domestic oil, only 24% oppose that. And 67% support offshore drilling. Another 55% favor drilling in ANWAR. But Obama opposes all of this and has banned offshore drilling along the East Coast and in the Gulf, he refuses to discuss ANWAR, he opposes clean coal, he’s given no support to natural gas, etc. In fact, all he’s done is favor fantasy solar energy and push for more ethanol. Stupid is as stupid does.
● One of the most telling statistics shows that under Obama, the public’s view of its own financial health has been in steady decline. When Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, 43% of Americans said their personal finances were good or excellent. By the time Obama won the White House, this fell to 38%. Between then and now, this number has steadily fallen until it hit a new low of 30% this month. That’s not a number that will get you re-elected.
Finally, I’ve written before how conservative the public really is (check out this chart). This never translated into anything for the Republicans because they haven’t been conservative themselves. But with the advent of the Tea Party, the public’s conservatism is starting to assert itself.The Very Wrong Message
Right now, 48% of likely voters say that their views are closer to the Tea Party than they are to average members of Congress (compared to 22% who chose Congress). Moreover, 49% think the Tea Party is good for America, only 26% disagree. What’s more, these numbers are rather misleading because the Democrats are so insanely opposed to the Tea Party. If you just look at Republicans (69%) and Independents (62%), you will find the Tea Party has well above 60% support. Compare that with the fact that only 32% identify themselves as Republicans. Clearly, the Tea Party has easily become the most popular "party" in America.
Given this, it’s ironic that the Democratic plan for winning back the public is to claim that the Republicans are being held hostage by the Tea Party! This is truly stupid as the Tea Party is more popular than the Republican Party. In fact, if the Democrats weren’t saying this, the Republicans should be. This is great public relations.
Conclusion
Thus, what we have here are numbers that tell us that (1) the public does not trust Obama in the job, (2) they don’t trust his policies to work, (3) they think he will only make matters worse, (4) they feel personally endangered by his policies, (5) Obama and the Obamacrats are playing politics with the public’s biggest concerns, and (6) their political strategy is to attack the Republicans for being exactly what the public wants. Good luck making that work!
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Democratic Future: Cloudy With Continuing Doom
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32 comments:
It is a very encouraging sign, indeed. Of course, as we have discussed so many times in the past, we continue to hold our breath for three key reasons: 1) Outside events which can have a mega impact; e.g. the proverbial "game changer." 2) Republicans have a track record of minimizing their advantages. 3) The media, although waning in influnce capability is still overwhelmingly pro Democrat.
By way of example, I am super pleased with guys like Ryan. Still, every time the libs come out and counter with a lie, our side needs to IMMEDIATELY counter punch and expose it.
Andrew, I hope you're right. Not to be a downer, but as unpopular as Obama is, it won't help unless we can get a solid candidate with a coherent message. I don't see that we have that right now.
Also, I'll add to Jed's list a fourth reason: the unfailing ability of Democratic election commissioners to suddenly remember on Election Day that they have several hundred (D) ballots in the trunk of their car.
For me it’s of vital impotence who we pick as our standard bearer. Someone willing to exploit Barry’s weaknesses, We don’t need a Mark McKinnon for a campaign manager (you may recall he told McCain if he went negative against Barry he would quit the campaign…huh!) …we need a Lee Atwater (Reagan’s campaign manager) who will aggressively paint Barry for who he is, an anti-American, ‘60s radical spawn, whose harebrained ideas have nearly killed this country, and as your article points out shouldn’t be to much trouble. We’ll see!
Jed, I agree. Outside events are unpredictable and Presidents often (though not always) have a way of rising to the occasion.
And you're right about the media and the Republicans' seeming inability to defend themselves effectively. I have reason to hope that's changing, but it hasn't yet.
Still, I remain optimistic that these numbers will not reverse themselves because (1) Obama seems unwilling to change direction to make them change and (2) the key ones like how you feel personally financially can't turn around quickly enough that all will be forgotten come election time.
T_Rav, Those are excellent points too. We need someone that (1) the public doesn't see as more dangerous than Obama and (2) actually has a solid grasp of conservative principles. I don't see that yet either, but there's still time.
On the election fraud issue, one thing that needs to change the second we get control of both houses of Congress is election reform. There is no reason that any of this should be going on -- multiple voting, phantom voters, suddenly appearing ballots, exclusion of military ballots, democrats trolling old folks homes and voting for them, etc. That's got to end.
Stan, The oldest adage in politics is "attack, attack attack." We need someone who understand that. But even moreso, we need someone who grasps and believes genuine conservative principles. Donald Trump has been great at attacking Obama, but he would be a disaster for us if he got into office because he can't even spell "conservatives" much less believe in conservatism. We need to make sure that this victory counts and that we don't end up with the Republicans feuding with each other after the election.
Nice poster! Great numbers too.
No word on Wisconsin yet I see.
Thanks DUQ. It came from an actual Obama poster for 2012... I just had to do a little rearranging! :-)
I can't find anything out about Wisconsin except that last night one of them was ahead of the other by 960 votes -- but I don't even know which one.
DUQ, the last I saw was Kloppen-bag had a 140-vote lead, which means someone in the Madison or Milwaukee area was waiting until the GOP precincts finished submitting before suddenly "finding" a bunch of Democratic ballots. Either way, we're in recount territory.
Andrew, I think what we need above all is poll watchers. This crap has got to end; we have to be canvassing every polling place and watching the Dems too closely for them to pull off these frauds. As for a candidate, what does it say about how messed up the field is that I'm kinda pulling right now for either Pawlenty or Bachmann???
T_Rav, No sooner did I post my comment than the AP put up an article saying K-bag has a 311 vote lead, with five precincts not reporting yet.
I agree about the poll watchers. It's time to require people to produce a valid id, to dip fingers in ink (like in Iraq), to watch closely to make sure the rules are followed, and to now allow the ballot boxes to take a little ride with the Democrats for a couple days.
On the candidates, I know what you mean. When I look at a guy like Pawlenty and I finding myselk actually having to decide if he's one of our better candidates, I just shake my head wondering how is it that our entire philosophy has been unable to produce any better candidates? Where are they?
Bachmann is another good example. I like her, but I can't help but feel that there isn't a lot of "there there."
Andrew and T_Rav, I honestly don't feel comfortable with any of these candidates right now and I don't get it either. Where are all the good conservatives? There have to be more than one or two every couple decades?
DUQ, That's a good question. All I can think is that the best and brightest went into other fields (like blogging ;-) ) and what's left is more of the self-interested set than the conservative set.
What confuses me is where are all the conservative governors and ex-governors who should be out there? I think something went wrong at the state level in the 1990s and we're paying for the now.
Nice compilation of information Andrew. I think the key is that last statistic you mention. As long as people feel that they are personally worse off, they will toss out the incumbent and try something different. I don't see how Obama can turn that around.
I get the feeeling that the Republican leadership is waiting and hoping that the Dems will "hoist themselves on their own petard" so much that it will just go without having really say anything too mean. They HAVE been "hoisted" repeatedly, but Republicans just take it for granted that everyone is noticing.
I am also not thrilled with any of the field of Republicans yet. It's early, but the time is closing in. BUT we can't take anything for granted that Obama will not "rise to the occasion" with his famous soaring rhetorical style. They were fooled before, but it is the Independents that he has to keep in his camp. Independent voters are not fools...
I wonder how many times they will recount the votes to make sure whatshername wins in Wisconsin.
What I find interesting is that these numbers only go in the one direction -- down. I've never seen that before with a President.
Ed, That is probably the biggest factor. So long as the average voter feels like Obama's policies are hurting them personally, they will vote for whoever else is available.
Bev, As many as it takes.
I agree about the Republicans and Jed has been making this point a lot lately (correctly I might add) that the one thing they can't do is just sit around and hope the public "gets it." Politics is about selling your ideas to a public that really is only half listening. It's wrong to assume that the public is actively searching blogs and reading policy papers and making up their own minds. Most only know what they see in the headlines. So the Republicans need to start trumpeting themselves much better.
In terms of the candidates, unfortunately, time is getting very short. And what we have right now doesn't seem to thrill anyone. I'm hoping whoever it is will really start to prove themselves, but this field seems determined to avoid taking a stand on anything. That's a horrible sign.
Unfortunately, I don't know where we can get a replacement field? Maybe we can arrange a trade with Mexico or something....
Matty, I find that interesting too. Even losers like Carter bounced. He had good weeks and bad and his poll numbers reflected that. Obama is the only guy whose numbers seem to be headed in just the one direction. I think that's because he offers nothing except more of the same, which has already proven unpopular.
Bev, P.S. Obama could conceivable improve his standing by becoming more presidential -- and in truth, the polls always close up as elections near. But I'm starting to think he doesn't have it in him to improve because his instincts are wrong.
When presented with a crisis, he does the wrong thing -- he cowers. When confronted with an angry public, he just shrugs his shoulders and attacks them. He won't give up his golf games, even for the appearance of being not-lazy. His style has been getting angrier. His speech writers stink. And he's "ideologically stuck" on what he's already done, i.e. he shows no signs of flexibility (despite the fact he also shows few principles).
That's like a "the worst of all worlds" combination. And that's why I don't see him recovering.
Andrew and DUQ, that's the thing: I know they have their flaws, and yet with the current field, I don't feel like they're worse than anyone else. Romney? Don't dislike him, but no thanks. Huckabee? Heck to the no. Trump? See response to Huckabee. Gingrich? Again. Cain's not going to get the nomination, I doubt Daniels will run and he's kinda torched his chances anyway, and at this rate, I'm starting to think Palin won't enter the race after all. So...what?
By the way, Kloppen-bag is up with about 200 or so votes, but there's one Prosser-leaning precinct left to tally. And now definite reports of fraud are coming in, with under-18 high schoolers being herded in to vote in a few places. Raise your hand if you saw this one coming.
Also, and totally OT: Glenn Beck is out at Fox News.
Obama has gotten us into a third poorly-defined war with no goals, no clear leadership, and no identifiable enemy. The Democrats are counting on the "don't change horses in the middle of the stream" concept to help them in 2012. It's unlikely to work, since this horse is a sway-backed nag that is half-blind and can't figure out which way the shore is.
T_Rav, Well knock me over with a feather that someone (read: teachers unions) would get underage voters to go vote. I hope that can be proved and that it blows up on them.
There were rumors about Beck leaving Fox. I guess he doesn't get along with the rest of them. I personally don't care for him so I won't really miss him -- not that I expect he will vanish.
I have the same feeling about the 2012 group.... half of them I absolutely don't want and the other half I just don't care about. In many ways, it's like 2008 all over again only without McCain to really irk me.
Lawhawk, Good point! Plus, I would add that I think the "don't change horses" argument only works when people feel that we are in a critical war. These wars seem so distant and so irrelevant to daily life (and the generals are handling it, not the politicians) so that it doesn't seem like there would be even a moment's disruption if we changed horses -- especially since Obama doesn't seem to care about these wars in any event.
Compare that to WWII where it would have been hard to imagine the public getting rid of FDR, who seemed to be running the war personally.
Four more years of Obama should give anyone nightmares. Let's hope the Democratic Party remains delusional.
Writer X, I think they will. Nothing they've said or done tells me that they've come to terms with what has happened. They are still blaming the public for being stupid and looking for pollyanna-ish silver linings about how they really won the last election despite the slaughter. This tells me they learned nothing.
Andrew, I do kinda like Beck. I mean, he's had a tendency to get into conspiracy theories the past year or two, but I like the fact that he seems genuinely interested in making people understand history and how we got to this state of affairs. And like you, he probably won't be going anywhere; he may not even be leaving Fox altogether.
As for Kloppen-bag, she's got a 204-vote lead with all precincts in, and is therefore declaring victory. There'll be a recount, but, you know...
T-Rav, My issue with Beck is the insanity factor. Half of what he says is downright crazy. And I don't like his new religious focus. It's kind of creepy.
Hey, we can overcome a 204 vote deficit, we just need to print some ballots. . . oh wait, that's right, we're Republicans. We don't do that. :-(
Yeah...about that, this is probably worth looking into.
http://nation.foxnews.com/politics/2011/04/06/republican-has-narrow-lead-crucial-wisconsin-supreme-court-election
Basically, Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, with minimal ID requirements, which means a lot of thugs--I mean, union activists--who were there from elsewhere registered and then voted. This would be why the vote total from Madison was so freaking high; something like 35% of the total (voting and non-voting) population. Having worked in campaigns before, believe me when I say you're lucky to get that even in a general election. For something like this? No way.
Also, on Beck: I can see why some people might have a problem with it--the religious thing, that is. If you're not into it, he can come across as a fanatic; if you do believe--as I do--that the world is likely speeding towards the book of Revelation, it makes more sense, but you still don't want to think about it because it means things are about to get very bad. That said, I do believe there is a divine plan for the world, and that the country will not regain its footing entirely until people once again make Christian belief a major part of society. You could argue that it might not be politically expedient, but I don't think there's anything wrong with the argument in and of itself.
T_Rav, This is the kind of thing that's just unacceptable. There should be some minimum period to register for voting exactly to prevent this kind of stuffing the ballot box. I can guarantee you that more than 200 of the thugs voted.
On Beck, I see his insanity as a much larger issue. He's always struck me as unstable, prone to conspiracy and fantasy, and very very high on self-aggrandizement. On the religious aspect, I have no problems with religious belief -- I think it is good for society -- but I get a sense from Beck that he sees himself in the Messiah role, and that's what I find creepy. I get the feeling that his religion is like his politics, it's about him first and foremost.
The other thing you've said in the past that I think is absolutely right is that people aren't listening to Obama anymore. You don't hear anybody talk about his speeches. His ratings are down. No one seems to care what he says. He can't turn any of this around if no one listens to him.
Ed, I think that's true too. That's why he doesn't get a bounce anymore -- because no one is listening. And if no one is listening, then he can't fix the problem.
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