Chicken Comes Home To Roost

For those of you who might have thought that a liberal Democrat would wander off the reservation for long, Ed Koch (former New York City mayor) should put your minds to rest. Koch has been loosely credited with creating the margin of victory by which a Republican took a New York Democratic seat for the first time since 1923. His concern was Barack Obama's terrible record on Israel.

Koch says that he heard Obama's moral equivalency speech at the United Nations, and was instantly convinced that he had been wrong about Obama's dedication to the survival of Israel. While supporting Republican Bob Turner in the recent Congressional election, Koch said the following: "I am doing what I'm doing to cause President Obama to change his hostile position on the State of Israel and to re-establish the special relationship presidents before him have had." What it was about Obama's UN speech that was any different is mystifying to many. Polls taken since the UN speech indicate that Jewish support for Obama continues to decline.

Koch is very influential among liberal Jewish voters, so it remains to be seen how strongly he will back Obama and how much effect it will ultimately have on that particular demographic. Polls taken after the President's UN speech indicate that the President's views on the Israel/Palestinian issue have not changed voters' minds in the President's favor. Two years ago, Obama still had a clear majority with the Jewish vote on the issue, according to the polling of the American Jewish Commission. That poll showed that in 2009, Obama's favorables were 54% to 32%. After the UN speech, the same poll asking the same questions about Palestine showed that Obama's approval was at 40% against a disapproval rate of 53%.

On overall approval of the President's job, the Democrat-leaning Gallup poll found that Obama's approval rate among Jewish voters was still high at 54%. But even that is a dramatic drop. In 2009, his approval rate was at 83%, dropping to 54% in 2010, and staying there. Likewise, the AJC poll in 2009 showed that Jewish voters were 53% Democratic. The same poll today shows that figure to be 45% (the loss was to those registered as Independents or decline-to-state, while the Republican percentage has remained unchanged at 16%).

Koch says that Obama's "words of support for Israel" during the UN speech, combined with his recent intervention in the Cairo attacks on the Israeli embassy and providing bunker buster bombs to Israel (in 2009) has changed his mind. Says Koch: "I'm now on board the Obama Reelection Express." It strikes me that Koch's mind is easily changed and his political stance easily modified.

I could understand Koch's change of heart if Obama had said "I will immediately supply Israel with all necessary military support for bombing Iran's nuclear facilities," or "I firmly support Israel's claim to Jerusalem--all of Jerusalem--as its capital, and reject any claims by the Palestinians to portions of Jerusalem." But what he did say was the usual blather about the longtime friendship of Israel and America, then launched into moral equivalencies, the "cycle of violence," and the "walk in their shoes" nonsense. In other words, "I sort of support Israel, as long as I don't have to do anything about it." With friends like that, who needs enemies?

In the ACJ poll, Jewish voters would elect Obama over Romney 50-32, over Perry 55-25, and over Bachmann 59-19. That's a hefty Democratic advantage among Jewish voters. It's also a hefty increase among undecideds. But is it that great? In 2008, Jewish voters chose Obama over McCain by 77-22. Herman Cain was not mentioned in the poll, but after his Florida victory in the straw poll, it will be very interesting to see how that plays with Jewish voters in the next poll.

Between now and the election, the polls I'm looking at tell me that Koch and Obama had better make appearances together, kiss a lot of babies, shake a lot of hands, and attend a lot of bar mitzvahs if they want to win back the formerly top-heavy Jewish vote. A real rejection of unilateral Palestinian demands might help too.