District 9 (in NY) - The Aliens Will Be Landing

There are is a very important special election on Tuesday in New York for Congressional District 9. No, not THAT District 9, but just as alien. This District 9 is comprised of parts of Brooklyn and Queens (see map), and is from where the now disgraced former Congressman Anthony Weiner's privates were exposed. At first the local Democratic Political Machine thought this would be a slam dunk for them. I mean, why not? The election is in an overwhelmingly Dem district in an overwhelmingly Dem city in an overwhelmingly Dem state. The Democratic leadership thought all they had to do was to nominate any loyal Machine Democrat and there would be nothing left to do but wait until September 13. So without much adieu, they nominated their go-to guy for New York City - David Weprin. The Machine had already successfully nominated Weprin and won in slam dunk elections for New York City Counsel and state Assembly, so, by all accounts there should have been no problem. What they didn't count on was the mounting frustration with President Obama, the embarrassment caused by disgraced Anthony Weiner, and a surprisingly good Republican opponent - Bob Turner. It's being called a "perfect storm".

So who is this alien being? Robert "Bob" Turner is a 70 year old, retired TV executive whose claim to fame is as CEO of the entertainment division that oversaw the very lucrative productions of The Phil Donahue Show, The Sally Jesse Raphael Show, and The Jerry Springer Show and also established a successful television motion picture company. So already on his face, he's media savvy. He ran against Anthony Weiner in 2010, but gained only 40% of the vote. Even though he lost, Turner already had exposure going into this special election and was well versed in policy. On substance, Turner is a fiscally conservative former business owner who has studied the issues and understands our economic climate.

It all started to fall apart for Weprin at an early press conference. When the candidates were asked questions about policy, it was clear who had done his homework. When asked about the amount of the deficit, Weprin confidently responded "I think it's about $4 trillion", a question that Turner had no problem answering correctly ($14 trillion and counting). It's been downhill from there. Major missteps by Weprin have further damaged his campaign. Things like when he failed to show up for a well-publicized local debate citing it was just too difficult in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene. Embarrassingly for Weprin, Turner arrived on time and prepared even though he had to evacuate from his home. And last week, Weprin's campaign had to pull a controversial TV ad with images of a plane flying over a city skyline. The image was supposed to paint Turner as an out of touch rich guy who regularly uses those evil private jets and hates Senior citizens and wants to take away their Social Security and Medicare. However, it ended up being a highly offensive image to use on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attack. But the real nail in Weprin's campaign coffin was reported this week by the New York Post - Dave Weprin doesn't even live in District 9 and has no intention of moving there if he wins the election!

There are even some local Democrats who are using Weprin's campaign to voice their frustration with Obama. Former Mayor Ed Koch, a prominent long time Democrat, threw his full-throated support to Turner very early on in protest against Obama's Israel policy with others following close behind. And good for Republicans, Turner has turned out to be a very savvy, likable, and knowledgeable conservative candidate. As a matter of fact, his only noticeable drawback to many local liberals is his stand on the Park51 mosque project for which he adamantly opposes. Even the very liberal New York Daily News found this a minor issue when they endorsed Turner today.

The Democratics are now in a full scale panic. This special election is seen as referendum on Obama and his policies, so Dem party money has been pouring in. The DNC has kicked in at least $500 million to fund a blitz of TV ads and other boots-on-the-ground strategies. But, no matter how much money the DNC has committed, nothing seems to be working. Just three weeks ago, Weprin was leading by an uncomfortably close 6 points in the polls. As of this Friday, a Sienna poll announced that Turner is now leading Weprin by 6 points. So, come Wednesday morning, if Turner wins, this could indicate that we may be just that much closer to an Obama-free world.

One caveat: This may be a short-lived victory because New York lost two congressional districts as of the 2010 Census. The state Legislature has to decide which districts to get rid of and District 9 may be one of them. Ultimately it may not matter because the damage will already be done.