Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Media Finally Spots Flaw In Democrat's Hispanic Strategy. . . Sort Of

We at Commentarama like to keep you ahead of the curve. So while others are worrying about things that will never happen or missing both forest and trees, we’re busy trying to let you know exactly what is going on and what the world will look like in the near future. And that brings me to the issue of immigration. It turns out, the Mexican invasion is over. And while you knew this already two years ago (Link), the public is only now getting hints of this. Perhaps it’s time for the Democrats to panic?

The idea that Hispanics (particularly Mexicans) will take over the United States has become an article of faith on the left. Indeed, the Democrats are counting on it. Their electoral strategy involves pandering to minorities and trying to get overwhelming support among them to offset their near-total collapse of support among whites. To achieve that level of support, they are working hard to scare these groups with claims of racism and to enslave them with poor education and by ingraining hobbling ideas like group rights.

But this whole idea relies on a faulty premise. Indeed, it depends on immigration from Mexico remaining at the same levels it was during its peak period in the 1980s/1990s. In 1980, there were 30 million Hispanics in the US. By 2000, there were 45 million. If you draw a straight line between those points and extend it to the future, there will be 104 million in 2040 and they will be the new majority group shortly after.

Sounds simple, but here’s the problem. That growth has nothing to do with births of Hispanics in the United States. Indeed, 12 million of the 15 million growth in the last twenty years was purely illegal immigration. And the vast majority of that comes from Mexico. Ergo, if immigration from Mexico slows, then the minority take over of America is over.

And guess what? Immigration from Mexico has all but stopped. Starting in 2007 (before the recession), immigration from Mexico began dropping. Within the last few years, it’s actually reversed itself, as the number of Mexicans returning to Mexico has exceeded the number of Mexicans who have come to the United States. How much? Well, according to Pew and the Census Bureau, the number of illegal immigrants in the US fell by one million in the last five years while the number of legal immigrants rose only by 200,000.

Why is this happening? Partially it is the sad state of our economy. But even more importantly, it’s because Mexico is running out of Mexicans. Mexico’s birthrate is in free fall. In the past decade alone, it has fallen 20% (from 24 births per 1,000 persons to 19), and it keeps right on falling. Mexico’s birth rate is now just over 2 children per mother, almost identical to the birth rate in the United States, and it’s still falling -- it will soon be at European levels (around 1.4). Because of this, Mexico’s population is estimated to peak in 2043, though I suspect that will happen much sooner, as it has in other countries. And that means Mexico, like Europe, is starting to suffer from a birth shortage and, consequently, a worker shortage. That means there won’t be waves of millions of Mexicans sneaking across the border in each of the next 3-4 decades because they can find the jobs they want at home. So instead of having 104 million Hispanics in 2040 as expected, the US is more likely to have 60 million -- which won’t be anywhere near a majority in a country of 350 million people.

I told you about this in May 2000 and again last year. The LA Times first hinted at this yesterday. Neither the Times nor others on the left have yet fully grasped the meaning of this, but it will come as they realize what this means for the Democratic strategy.

And falling numbers aren’t the only problem. Look at the concentration of Hispanics in the United States. That is not a map which affords Hispanics political power. As California has learned, anything above 50%+1 is a waste in our system. So piling millions upon millions of Hispanics into the same 3-4 states means their influence will always been small compared to their numbers.

Further, there is this point I mentioned last year. According to the Census, 53% of Hispanics now identify themselves as “white,” while 37% identify themselves as “some other race” (the choice on the form) with the rest selecting other races such as black. And American- born children of Hispanics are even more likely to identify themselves as “white.” This means Hispanics are doing what every other ethnic group except blacks has done -- they are joining the melting pot.

The Democratic dream of an angry racist Hispanic majority which supports their socialist ways is over. This wave of Hispanics is not coming, they are not going to the right states, and those that are here are leaving the race-reservation. The LA Times has finally put its finger on this, but hasn’t grasps the full implications yet. But that will come as the Times article is now getting widespread publication. Any guesses what the Democrats will do about their mistake. . . or if they'll put this together?


And don't forget, it's Star Trek Tuesday at the film site!

67 comments:

ScyFyterry said...

Andrew, I saw this article at Yahoo and Drudge and I thought, oh oh, the Democrats are not going to like this! Excellent analysis as always.

T-Rav said...

Does this mean we can soon look forward to the end of inane news stories on "The Browning of America?" (I know, I know....of course not.)

AndrewPrice said...

This is bad for them Terry because they've put all their eggs in this basket. So when this demographic change doesn't happen, they are doomed.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Nope. They will keep pushing the idea until well after it doesn't happen. But the truth is that it won't happen. The numbers are very clear on this point.

The question now is, will the Democrats finally realize that and will what will they do about it? Will they keep going down this road or will they change gears?

ScyFyterry said...

Andrew, I don't think they will change because as you note, this has become conventional wisdom. So they will keep acting like it will happen even if it doesn't.

Also, I think the Republicans have a lot of opporunities to make inroads with Hispanics in any event. Rubio is looking more like the VP pick every day. And even thing like the Trayvon Martin shooking may wake Hispanics up that the Democrats are ready to throw them under the bus just to score political points.

K said...

I would be a bit skeptical of Pew and the Census Bureau figures. When McCain-Feingold got passed, it was on the back of Pew polling data, which a lot of right wing pundits claimed was being astro turfed. And this time, the census was being run out of the Obama White House - not the commerce department.

So if someone is diddling with the polls and census to help out the Democrats, what is the numero uno issue they'd want to lay to rest? Why illegal immigration of course.

AndrewPrice said...

K, The things is, they actually try to raise the numbers when they massage them because they want to try to increase the size of the Hispanic population because that gets them more votes and more federal money. It's what they do with the black community as well. If there were going to tamper with these, it would be to try to shift people from illegal to legal status, not wipe people off the books.

Also, these numbers have been confirmed by various other people who track things like cross-country remittances and number of available workers for business.

Also, the numbers from Mexico aren't wrong either. They are in trouble and that is bringing people home because it's becoming a job-seeker's market.

T-Rav said...

K, without being privy to all the info Andrew possesses, I would say that while this possibility should be considered, the supplementary facts--the Mexican demographic changes, the self-identification numbers, etc.--would tend to bear out the immigration figures. I suspect illegal entries are in fact way down.

The only counter that comes to my mind concerning this article is that the continuing precarious state of politics/law and order in Mexico might continue to drive people into the U.S. in search of stability and security, economic opportunity or no. No idea how that is actually playing out, but it's worth considering.

AndrewPrice said...

Terry, There is a huge opportunity out there for Republicans. All they need is a 5-10% shift and the Democrats are doomed everywhere except their most entrenches states (like California).

I suspect a Rubio pick would help, but I have no specific proof of that yet.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I have a lot of confidence in these numbers because they are confirmed by a lot of other numbers. Also, because they go against the interest of the left who want these numbers to be much larger for various reasons -- (1) funding, (2) representation, and (3) the "browning of America" meme.

On your point about their civil war, I wondered that myself and then I dug a little deeper and I found that their civil war is actually slowing immigration because it has made people scared of heading north because it's now incredibly dangerous because that's where the fighting/killing is mainly taking place.

What's further interesting about the falling birthrate in Mexico, by the way, is that Mexico may well become a new destination for South-American immigration. In other words, if jobs are going to be plentiful in Mexico and they already speak the language, why should someone from Ecuador come to the US when they can go to Mexico instead? Indeed that trend has already begun and I think we're going to see a fascinating shift in the next few years.

Doc Whoa said...

If there's one thing I've learned, it's to never trust straight-line trends. Anyone who thinks something will continue forever is simply a fool, and in this case, it's foolish to think that Mexico, with a sagging population, will continue to send a steady flow of people to the United States. And when you look at birth rates for Hispanics in the US and you see that they aren't higher than for whites, then you realize very quickly that something doesn't add up with this idea of the browning of America.

I remember reading way back in school about demographics way back in school about if you took the trend with the number of black births in the 1870s through 1900 and projected them forward, blacks would double the white population by 1950. That didn't happen and this won't happen either.

LawHawkRFD said...

With two sons-in-law (and one ex son-in-law) of Hispanic heritage, I've never been as distressed by the growth of the Hispanic population as some people (not including illegal immigrants). My lifelong best friend and my college buddy are both of Mexican descent.

The figures used by the Census and many polls tend to include all persons with Spanish surnames, which really skews the numbers. Using that tool, six of my eight grandchildren are Hispanic, even though none of them are more than half-Hispanic. Some polls even use the married name, meaning both of my two German-Irish daughters are Hispanic.

My experience has been that college radicals and illegals aside, Mexican-descended Americans of two generations or more tend to break politically pretty much the same way as other Americans.

As for California, even here the issue is settling down according to your pattern of decreasing immigration. If every actual and legal Hispanic voter in California voted Republican, it would still be a Democratic state, for now.

AndrewPrice said...

Doc, True. Never trust a straight-line trend. Natural simply does not allow for straight-line trends. Acceleration always slows, peaks happen and then trends fall off. It happens in everything we track statistically.

Interestingly, this is the same mistake people are making with China. They look at China's growth over the past two decades and assume it will continue like that forever, even though the evidence is that it's already peaked and is now sliding backwards. That's just the way the world works.

Doc Whoa said...

Also, the census massaging was an attempt to count more minorities, not less.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, I think that's a key point. I've known a lot of people who count as Hispanic but who don't think of themselves that way. And as the numbers above show, by almost 2-1, Hispanics identify themselves as white compared to Hispanic. That's not good for the race lobby.

Also, like I said above and like Doc just said, nothing ever moves in a straight line. All trends slow and come to a halt. That's just the way the world works. And with Mexico running out of people and becoming a much nicer destination for job seekers, this idea of us being flooded simply won't happen.

I think the Democrats have really made a mistake here betting on a demographic change when the demographics of the entire world are against their bet.

AndrewPrice said...

Doc, That's true. The idea was to use statistical sampling to increase the number of minorities because Congressional representation and federal funding are tied directly to the size of the local population. For the Democrats to twist to make illegals disappear would go against everything they've tried to achieve and would mean massive cuts to Democratic cities and high risks to Democratic representatives.

Ed said...

On your question, I think the Democrats are in real trouble. This has become such conventional wisdom in their ranks that I can't see them being able to accept that they suddenly can't abandon whites anymore. I don't know how they will bridge that mental gap?

T-Rav said...

Andrew, it should be interesting. I don't know if this is relevant, but the fact that American cities and regions where illegals tend to congregate (Phoenix, for example) have become increasingly violent and plauged by gangs in recent years may also be having a deterrent effect.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, That wasn't something I ran across, but it stands to reason. It also might explain why you see more illegals in places like Wisconsin suddenly. These people aren't stupid -- far from it. And they apparently have a very solid grapevine to tell them what is going on.


As another interesting aside, with the return of so many people to Mexico, the amount of remittances from the US to Mexico has fallen dramatically and apparently that's caused economic problems down there. It's fascinating how tied-together the world is these days.

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, The Democrats do have a remarkable ability for groupthink. Don't discount that. I always think of the Jews in this regard. In the 1980s, the Democrats claimed the Republicans were anti-Semitic and they competed to be the biggest Israel hawks. Then they switched a light-switch after Likud got re-elected while Bush was in office. Almost overnight, Democrats everywhere started spouting anti-Semitic things. Now anti-Semitism is firmly entrenched in their beliefs.

I could easily see the Democrats deciding to do an about face and their brain-dead followers accepting the new programming: "yes, we've never liked illegal immigration... damn Republicans and their Mexican supporters."

Ed said...

That is true, Democrats do seem to be able to change their most deeply held beliefs on a dime.

I think the problem will come that they've been pushing this either/or idea. They've worked hard to make it sound like whites and minorities have no common interests and what one gets the other must lose. I don't know how they can keep minorities on the reservation and still appeal to whites having used that approach?

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, That will be a problem. It will be very hard to reconcile the idea that whites are evil with "we're now going to court whites, keep voting for us." Something will eventually have to give... assuming they recognize the problem.

Democrats said...

The numbers lie! They have to be lies! Oh what a world!

Reality said...

Sorry Democrats, but you can only pretend I don't exist for so long.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

The Democrats/Socialists/Progressives/Communists don't understand that things are always in dynamic flux. From economics to immigration, from taxes to dealing with foreign dictators, they still keep on stumbling over the dynamics of situations. They have a tendency to squander legitimate gains in order to get illegitimate control over people who basically just want to be left alone.

AndrewPrice said...

Dear Democrats and Reality, play nice... ;)

Joe Biden said...

That's what you think! I've been pretending for 60 years!

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, That's true. You see it over and over where they take a snapshot of the world and just extrapolate that forward forever without every thinking about the things that would change that -- like people working less when taxes go up.

I think they genuinely expect that immigration will never decrease and that Hispanic birthrates in the US will mirror those of immigrants in the 1980s. None of that is true. But they believe it because that's what their view of the world would conclude.

That's why I wonder if they will notice what these numbers mean?

AndrewPrice said...

Thank you Mr. Biden. It's like a sockpuppet theater around here suddenly!

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

It also applies to race baiting. This attempt to create race problems via vilifying Zimmerman is backfiring. More and more, I see people getting angry at the race baiters where as before they were silent.

Also, because of the internet, their various memes are deconstructed faster than they are constructed.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, That's true. The net allows this kind of information to be dissected and discussed almost immediately and that undercuts the ability of the left along with their allies in the MSM to control the flow of information and to tell people what to believe.

I think the Zimmerman thing is backfiring, especially with all the kill Zimmerman tweets and the reports that he's in hiding. That's not how America is supposed to work.

T-Rav said...

Andrew and Joel, there's been another case of blacks ganging up and assaulting a white kid, shouting "This is for Trayvon!" That makes at least three, none of which the media have paid any attention to. But I think you're right; a lot of people in Sanford itself are really pushing back against this story and saying it's been stirred up by outsiders. Strange as it sounds, I think the filing of second-degree murder charges was a desperate last gasp.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, That is the third one I've heard of and yet the MSM and the race baiters and Obama don't seem to care. Amazing isn't it? I guess crimes against some people just aren't important.

I think the difference this time, however, is that with the internet and talk radio and conservative blogging and Drudge, these things can't just disappear. People are hearing about them and talking about them. And that is why the race baiters are having such a hard time this time -- they aren't used to having to deal with actual facts rather than just selective and pre-spun facts.

Ed said...

The Trayvon beatings anger me a lot. Why isn't Obama speaking up? He told us to stay calm whenever some Islamist blew somebody up. Why shouldn't he be out there telling blacks to stay calm now? Why is it always one-sided with him?

Ed said...

Also, I hate to bring this up, but if these border states do end up with the overwhelming majority of Mexicans, what are the odds they will try to rejoin Mexico?

BevfromNYC said...

Ed - I can only speak for Texas and let's just say that "Remember the Alamo" is not an idol threat. So, it is highly unlikely that any Texan alive OR dead would let that happen.

Joel Farnham said...

Ed,

It is becoming very apparent that Obama believes in Critical Race Theory and still feels that Blacks are oppressed and still in Slavery here in these United States. He is right in that Blacks are Slaves to the Democrat Party only that isn't pointed out.

Obama's son he never had has been killed. It is only right that some whiteys get beat up to balance the books so to speak. Never mind that Obama's son he never had attacked and viciously attempted to murder a white hispanic.

Ed said...

Bev, I don't doubt you. But when you look at a less cool state like California or New Mexico and if they ended up overwhelmingly populated with recent immigrants from Mexico, I just wonder if they might not try to leave the US?

I guess that would depend on a lot of factors though, like if they really did want to leave or if they preferred being part of the US? Also, I guess there's the question of whether or not the rest of the US would allow it?

Ed said...

Joel, It's strange because when I first saw him and heard him speak, I really believed that Obama was "post racial." I didn't believe that he wasn't a leftists, but I thought his main goal in office would be to try to integrate blacks more into the US and move us along. But since he's been in office, he's run the most racist DOJ I've ever seen and he really has been acting like he is the President of Black America. I am honestly disappointed in that aspect of him. He had a chance to do a lot of good and he's blew it.

Partido Democrático said...

Tan cerca y tan lejos.

AndrewPrice said...

My Spanish is a bit rusty, but if I read that correctly it says: "Cheap tans make your legs round."

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, The Trayvon Martin thing is highly frustrating because it highlights that we have a President and a government which only cares about some of us. But Obama has proven this time and again. That is highly, highly frustrating and despicable.

tryanmax said...

Well that narrows things down. All the while I was growing up, it was unclear as to whether we would be speaking Spanish or Mandarin one day.

AndrewPrice said...

Ed and others:

On succeeding...

The history of mankind has been one of change. People migrate and that shifts borders. In the modern era especially there has been a breakdown of countries which have been involuntarily held together.

That said, the US has faced these issues before. When we first got those territories, they were almost 100% Mexican and yet we managed to integrate them and Americanize them. Further, as I point out above, the children of Mexican immigrants are identifying themselves as white, not Hispanic at almost 2-1. That means they aspire to become Americans, not Mexican invaders.

I think it is more likely in our lifetimes that we would add parts of Canada or Mexico to our country than that we would lose any part of the US to them. Although my guess is that both scenarios are unlikely.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, It's funny you should mention Mandarin. China has the second worst population problem in the world in terms of an aging, shrinking population. They are currently expected to go from 1 billion to 700 million in short order.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, It makes me very happy that Texas is the big border state. If it had been someone like Vermont, I suspect it would already be part of Mexico.

tryanmax said...

Oh, I know, all the leftist predictions fall short one after the other, eh comrade?

AndrewPrice said...

Ed and Joel, I think Axlerod did a fantastic job packaging Obama. I was very much convinced that Obama really had no beliefs whatsoever -- he seemed too "slow/dull" to have any beliefs.

But he has proven to be quite the racist. I guess he was paying attention when Wright spoke after all?

AndrewPrice said...

Comrade tryanmax, It's the fault of capitalist underminers. The five year plans are all perfect on paper. And everyone at the cell meetings agrees they will work. So it must be sabotage, da?

Ed said...

Ok, forgive my lack of Spanish, but what does that mean?

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, I have no idea. But the internet says: "so close and yet so far."

Joel Farnham said...

Off Topic,

Romney just won Delaware.

On Topic

AndrewPrice said...

Politico says he won Connecticut and Rhode Island as well. And he's up by 30% in Pennsylvania and in New York.

I'm just glad we're not covering the primaries anymore.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

It looks like a clean sweep. Gingrich has hinted that he will drop out after this week. I think he only stayed in this long to be able to pay off his campaign debt.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, At this point, it should be a clean sweep (except maybe in Texas). But I'll bet they still play the "he's not getting a high enough percentage" game. The thing is, I don't think Romney cares. He's moved on to the general election now and the rest of these just don't matter to him.

Newt staying in only proves how irrelevant he is at this point. He should have suspended his campaign weeks ago.

Tennessee Jed said...

great post, Andrew. Late to the party tonight. It makes me think a little as to how the media so often can distort reality. When we used to see all those pictures of the Mexicans out in L.A. flying the flag, etc. it probably was yet another great example of a tiny minority who squeeks the loudest.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Jed! That would be my guess. In my experience, the media tends to focus on the few who drive the meme and ignore everyone else.

When I lived in DC, I met tons of Hispanics and none of the looked or acted like gangbangers. Nor were they even a monolithic "Hispanic" community. To the contrary, they came from many different countries and they didn't see themselves as one people. My neighbor here is Hispanic and yet he's 100% "true American" with all the American dream stuff and everything.

My guess is that, as usual, the loudest, most controversial types get the press and everyone else gets lumped into the same stereotype -- just like how they lump all conservatives into the same stereotype.

T-Rav said...

If Vermont had become part of Mexico, we would be hearing all sorts of crying from the leftists within a week about how the U.S. needs to take them back, because it's so awful. And I would laugh and laugh....

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Same here. The left loves to claim the US is the most evil country on earth, but they have no idea how few "human rights" (read: American constitutional protections) are enshrined in the laws of other countries.

Guilty until proven innocent, no right to trial, no right to own guns, limits on the right to own land, no gay rights, no religious freedom (or freedom from religion), no women's rights, no minority rights, limited social services, corrupt cops and judges, etc. Yeah... good luck with that.

They would be begging to have us take them back within days.

darski said...

regarding the "trayvon" assaults. If I were a member of the family in one of these cases I would hire a lawyer and sue Obama in civil court for conspiracy to commit murder. I think intentional infliction of pain and suffering would at least get thru the first hearing.

Obama is directly responsible for these events because he has not denounced anyone who is calling for anarchy.... aka no rule of law. But then he does so love him some killings. it is the communist way after all.

AndrewPrice said...

darski, Actually, you raise an interesting point. Obama would not be immune from such a suit. I doubt you would win it, but you might actually get a trial date. And if you lumped him in with Sharpton and Spike Lee and the rest, you might get a very interesting trial out of it.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, I imagine it must suck to have to face up to the hypocrisy of your own positions. Probably why liberals spend so little time beyond the confines of their sophisticated little enclaves.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Yep. Wouldn't want to run into and of those dirty poor they claim to care so much about, or Heaven forbid... minorities. Better to stay near the colleges and admire those people from afar.

rlaWTX said...

becoming part of Mexico - regardless of the La Raza crap, Mexicans & Mexican-Americans are in the US for a reason - usually because they do NOT want to be a part of the Mexican reality. The nostalgic Mexico, maybe; real Mexico, nope. So, beyond the Alamo and Goliad for Texas, I'd say that the immigrants wouldn't really want to split off either in New Mexico or Arizona... However, Norte California could pair up with Baja California and it wouldn't hurt my feelings :)

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, I doubt they would want to join Mexico. After all, they came here for a reason.

Patti said...

Dang. the mexicans done turned (literally) on barry. Note: when i saw the headline that the mexicans were going back to mexico in barry's economy, oh, how i lol'd. it was like a raspa on a hot day: delicious!

AndrewPrice said...

Patti, When the Democrats and Barry realize what this means, they will freak out. They've been betting on whites becoming a minority, but that's not happening. So suddenly, their whole electoral plan is collapsing around them.

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