Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Hispanics Foil Democratic Race Dreams

You’ve all heard America is destined to become an Hispanic country, right? The Democrats are in fact counting on that to stay relevant. They’re hoping to get Hispanics to buy into racial identity politics and then vote exclusively for their race-hustling party. But there are three flaws with this plan.

Flaw One: Bad Demographics
The argument works like this: in 1980, there were 30 million Hispanics in the US. By 2000, there were 45 million. If you draw a straight line between those points and extend it to the future, there will be 104 million in 2040 and they will be the new majority. But as I first mentioned in May of last year (LINK), there are serious flaws with this.

First, this assumes Hispanics are having huge numbers of children. The truth is that most of the population growth in Hispanic ranks has been the result of illegal immigration, not from births. Indeed, 12 million of the 15 million growth in the last twenty years was pure illegal immigration. So it’s immigration that matters.

But illegal immigration can’t continue at this rate because Mexico is running out of Mexicans. Mexico accounts for most illegal immigrants. But Mexico’s birthrate is in free fall. In the past decade alone, it has fallen 20% (from 24 birth per 1,000 persons to 19), and it keeps right on falling. Mexico, like Europe, is starting to suffer from a birth shortage and, consequently, a worker shortage. That means there won’t be waves of millions of Mexicans sneaking across the border in each of the next 3-4 decades. So instead of having 104 million Hispanics in 2040 as expected, the US is more likely to have 60 million -- which won’t be anywhere near a majority in a country of 350 million people.
Flaw Two: The Race Baiting Ain’t Working
But even beyond the pending illegal-immigrant-supply shortage, something interesting just happened with the last Census. To the race industry’s horror, “whites” suddenly jumped by 12.1 million people (to 223.6 million or 72% of the population). What could account for this?

What happened is the number of Hispanics who identified themselves as Hispanic went down 5% and the number of Hispanics who identified themselves as “white” increased 5%. Overall, 53% of Hispanics now identify themselves as “white,” while 37% identify themselves as “some other race” (the choice on the form) with the rest selecting other races such as black.

What this means is that Hispanics are doing what the Irish, the Jews, the Polish, and everyone else who is now considered “white” did -- they are identifying with the larger group and trying to fit in. They are joining the melting pot. And American-born children of Hispanics are even more likely to identify themselves as “white.”

This is horrible news for the Democrats, because the whole idea behind racial identity politics is to make people think they are part of an oppressed group. If people see themselves as black, white, Hispanic, etc., then it’s easy to get them believing in group rights. But Hispanics aren’t buying it.
Flaw Three: Escape The Plantation
Finally, there have been a number of articles lately by shocked journalists who can’t understand where all these conservative blacks have come from? It turns out the racist Tea Party got them all elected. Oh my! In fact, these articles have pointed out that in each case where a black (or minority) candidate won a Republican primary, it was with Tea Party backing over an establishment Republican honkey.

In effect, genuine diversity has finally arrived on the right and it’s the Tea Party that caused it because. . . imagine this. . . Tea Party people vote for people whose ideas they like, not people whose color they like! The Democrats are shocked.

This is a huge step toward smashing the idea of racial identity politics in this country. As more and more conservative blacks, Asians, Indians and Hispanics get elected into office, the idea that you need to be a Democrat if you are one of these people will simply fall apart. And that will be the final nail in the coffin of the Democratic Hispanic-America strategy.

41 comments:

T-Rav said...

Uh oh. Clearly the schools haven't been doing enough, if Hispanics are rejecting their "true" identity in favor of whiteness. Hmmm--I wonder if that might somehow spur teachers' unions to agree for stricter rules for the classroom?

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew,

Yes, this clearly indicates that something is not quite right in liberal la-la land.

Could it be that this notion of a New Hispanic Majority was sold to the Democrat elites like the notion of global warming was sold? If so, they bought it hook, line and sinker. Maybe this could be filed under the category Liberal Lies and Hoaxes?

I bet this was cooked up by some about-to-be-fired advisers to the Democrat Party in order to keep their jobs.

StanH said...

That was one of the most inspiring reads in some time Andrew. Not that the country is 72% white, but the reality that the American melting pot is still working, putting out real Americans of any color or creed, and the Tea Party leads the way, poetic justice. I can also understand the horror that our leftist nitwits would glean from the census report, too funny. What it says to me, is if we work really hard for a decade, we can once and for all relegate the radical democrat party into the dust bin of failed ideas…can you say hallelujah!

rlaWTX said...

HERETIC!!!!
;)

You do realize that the idea of being co-opted by the dominant culture is another anathema to leftist social scientists, right? These "confused" minorities will be traumatized by the urge to melt into the fabric of American culture. The desire to do so must be a result of cultural insensitivity on the part of the oppressive majority.
(yeah, I'm in grad school...)

Anonymous said...

I've got nothing against immigrants or Hispanics or anyone, but I don't like the idea that someone (Democrats) are trying to change our culture by importing people. I am glad to hear it's not working.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Clearly the indoctrination isn't working. So yep, schools need new rules. Maybe they can have "oppression hour" where kids get beaten unless they hang with "their kind?"

Actually, the real problem for the Democrats is that it makes no sense to separate yourself. That's like joining a club with your friend and then sitting alone at all the meetings. It just doesn't make sense.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, My guess is that this started with simple bad math. As the government so often does, it assumed the data would continue in a straight line forever. If you make that assumption and you pick the right period, then the new Hispanic majority is what you will come up with as a result.

From there, I think the Democrats bought it hook, line and sinker because (1) it fit their dreams of de-culturing the US, which they think will make the US more ready for socialism and (2) it is a great sales pitch if you want to keep Hispanics from integrating: "don't be like Whitey, in 30 years you'll run this country."

That's where I think this came from. But as you can see, it's not working. The math is nonsense (in fact birthrates have crashed everywhere in the world -- so all the population bomb fears are false too), and Hispanics are choosing to become Americans rather than occupiers.

And now the Republicans are making inroads with minorities.

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, I agree 100%! I think what is really great about this whole issue is that it shows that America remains a melting pot and people want to become Americans -- not race groups living in America.

I also think it's fantastic that the Tea Party has been an instrument of this because it really shows the difference between middle America and elite America. For decades, I've seen middle Americans just living side by side as friends and neighbors of different races and nobody really cared. It's only at the big city/college campus level that you find these race-hate groups trying to divide America. And the establishment buys into that and assumes we're all like that. But we aren't. The Tea Party has exposed what is really going on in fly-over country, and the answer is we're not a bunch of racists... only our elites are.

The Tea Party is really the heir to Martin Luther King's dream because they have taken him literally -- I don't care what you are, I care who you are. Hopefully, that message will finally overcome the liberal version of "hate those who aren't like you" and then we can get beyond our elite's obsession with race.

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, I think I read that on the back of a fortune cookie once.... ;)

Actually, yep. I know that the left has basically defined any attempt by minorities to "fit in" as psychological crime and are doing their best to tell people they shouldn't do it.

But they're idiots. It is 100% human to fit in with the group because we are herd animals. We have an instinct to form societies and work together. And just become someone chooses to reject an abstract like "ethnic culture" to fit in with the culture they see around them, does not make them victims or insane or wrong. It makes them smart.

Seriously, think about how stupid this idea is. If I move to Rome, they would tell me to behave like a stereotypical American just so no one can call me deficient for trying to fit in? Would my world be better if I instead learned their language and their customs? And if I really like it there, then shouldn't I try fit it?

What these people are saying is that it is a crime for minorities to fit in and they should maintain some culture which they don't need and which can't help them. And in the case of blacks, that culture is entirely a media creation in the first place, i.e. there is no "black country" from which they came and whose culture they are emulating -- they are making it up as they go. So basically, they are being told to live in a manufactured world, isolated from those around them. Yeah, that's good advice.

AndrewPrice said...

Anon, That's part of their game plan. They want America to move to the left, but Americans aren't leftists. It's not part of our culture. So they think that by bringing in millions of people and keeping them from integrating they can shift the culture to the left. That's what they are thinking.

LawHawkRFD said...

Andrew: Another phony statistic that comes straight out of the liberal camp is the way the census counts ethnicity (which it shouldn't be counting at all). If you have a Spanish surname, you're Hispanic/Latino. Therefore, six of my eight grandchildren are Hispanic.

Two are named Loya, after their father (Mexican-descent). In fact, they are half Hispanic, 3/8 German and 1/8 Irish.

Two are named Fleites after their father (Cuban). Same ethnic proportions as the Loyas.

Two are named Martinez after their father (half-Mexican, half-German). So they are classified as Hispanic, even though they are more German than Hispanic, with some Irish thrown in for good measure.

In other words, I have six grandkids with Spanish surnames, none of them with more than half Spanish heritage. Only one of the fathers speaks Spanish at all, and the one who does speaks it haltingly. None identify themselves as Hispanic. Yet statistically, for census purposes, six of my eight grandkids are considered Hispanic. If the Democrats are counting on the Loyas, Martinezes and Fleiteses to vote Democratic, they will be sorely disappointed.

These mixes are quite common in Southern California (and throughout the Southwest), so the myth of a rising Hispanic hegemony is a pipe dream for liberals.

My best friends through school were Mexican-descent (Salomon and Romero), but when we'd go to Mexico to raise hell, I had to do the translating and was the only one who could eat the food and drink the water without getting the Tijuana trots. With two exceptions, I am the darkest-skinned of us all. Radicalization among Hispanic families doesn't come from them, but from the academics and leftists who want to divide rather than unite.

Tennessee Jed said...

it is interesting to me that of all the ethnic groups that make up our melting pot, all except for one seem to go for assimilation. Obviously, I'm talking about Afican Americans, blacks or whatever label is acceptible to them. I have heard the argument that the whole issue of obvious skin color difference as well as the slavery issue accounts for this difference. Quite frankly, a lot of black people feel they are owed, and I'm not talking about owed equal opportunity. They feel they are owed wealth, be it by reparations or any other name. That is why 95% of blacks vote for liberals, particularly for one who is of their own race. Democrats are definitely the party for those that want to believe they are constantly being exploited. It would be fascinating, however, to see how that percentage might change in a Cain/Obama match-up.

Hispanics or Latinas or whatever label is acceptible seem more socially conservative as well. So, while I think our best bet is for disillusioned Obama voters to stay home, and "teach" a lesson to the politicians that didn't make good on their promises, this is nevertheless an encouraging development.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, First, I agree entirely with what you say about how the Census counts Hispanics. I've known many who are counted as Hispanics, but would never consider themselves that, have no connection to a "mother country" (except America) and don't speak any other language. Yet, these people are counted as Hispanic and are seen in Washington the same as someone who just snuck across the border.

Secondly, what you've described in your own family is the great thing about America -- it is a melting pot. What you've described is exactly how America has always worked. People come here as Pols, Germans, Irish, Jews, Mexicans, Cubans, and a generation later their kids are a mix and a generation after that, they're just Americans with no real sense that they've ever been anything else.

I think this is the hidden story still going on in America. The Democrats want to separate us, but the public is busy mixing everyone together... as we've always done.

T-Rav said...

rla, it's a grand place, ain't it? :-)

Nothing would make me happier than to see immigrants (Hispanic and otherwise) turn their backs wholesale on the oppression theory and multiculturalism being spewed by these punks who aspire to be "intellectuals," and just take pride with nth-generation Irish-Americans, German-Americans, Italian-Americans, etc in being part of the good ole U.S.A. The day I see that happening around me is the day I know we're going to be all right.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, Blacks are a huge outlier and I've heard many theories advanced for why. I suspect it is a combination of things.

First, let me say though, that I reject the skin color idea because that would keep Indians and many Asians and dark-skinned Hispanics from integrating as well, but they really don't have problems.

I think what is going on is a combination of history and culture.

First, moreso than any group, blacks have been taught to look to the government for protection. In the 1960s, that was twisted into looking to the government as provider. This made them Democratic clients. And the Democrats learned the best way to keep them on the plantation was to stir up racial anger.

Secondly, they have a very racist, separatist culture which is based on victimology. If you look at black literature, you will see constant references to discrimination, oppression, and how whites are trying to steal from them and kill them. You will see every failure excused by slavery or as "white stole our best people" from Africa. The use of the word "genocide" gets liberally attached to things like interracial marriage, interracial adoption, and even cuts in welfare. They claim all knowledge was stolen from blacks by whites. They claim whites are plotting to destroy them ("the CIA created AIDS", "vaccinations are designed to make blacks sterile" etc.). And so on.

All of this leads to blacks being pounded with the idea that they are at war with the rest of us. And you see that played out in all the racial tension throughout big cities and on college campuses.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I think it is happening, it's just not happening on college campuses.

LawHawkRFD said...

Andrew: Another interesting sidelight of my multi-ethnic family. My oldest granddaughter informed me yesterday that she's taking Chinese as her foreign language. She says that she thinks Spanish is unimportant, and that to succeed in the global economy, Chinese is the language to learn. I'm not sure how to feel about that, but it seems practical, and at least she didn't take the default foreign language of California--Spanish.

DUQ said...

The Tea Party represents the American spirit and that spirit doesn't care about race, it cares about getting the job done right. I'm thrilled the Tea Party has finally brought diversity to the Republican Party because they really weren't doing it on their own. And more importantly, these are conservative minorities, not liberals sold to us as token gestures of diversity.

Ed said...

Excellent article Andrew. We have a lot of Hispanics here and most of the ones I know think of themselves as Americans or want-to-be Americans. I know some don't want to fit in, but not many. I think over time they will fit in like everyone else has and I think the Democrats won't be able to turn them into a racial interest group.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, you're probably right. I keep forgetting I live in this detached bubble from reality.

LawHawk, Spanish is a "foreign" language in California?

LawHawkRFD said...

T-Rav: Let's just call it a "co-language" so I don't start screaming again.

rlaWTX said...

Sorta OT: I took the default foreign language in HS & college - Spanish. Toward the end of of my undergrad (history/poly sci) when looking at grad school, I realized that had been quite an error. I was interested in WWII history and Spain & Mexico were relatively unimportant. I tried German for one semester - that was painful for everyone involved. But I didn't go to grad school then, so all is well.
"default foreign language" made me think of that experience... probably better that the granddaughter has thought about it!

Back On Topic:
Yeah, T-Rav, social science grad school is an interesting place. So far, only the younger profs have given me any lefty think (beyond the basic "truths"). That's where I learned that everyone is a racist, even when you don't treat anyone differently, unless you espouse "diversity-philia". I also recently had to explain where the "Bible Belt" was to a grad student - from San Antonio, psych undergrad at UTEP. He wanted to know which cities in TX were the Bible Belt. It was kinda funny... Even if reinforces that my program doesn't have rigorous entry requirements... :(

LawHawkRFD said...

rlaWTX: I took four years of Spanish in high school. But we were also required to take a year of Latin (and that was a public school). I switched to German in college. I already had a fair handle on German from my parents, so I took some courses in German literature. I never worked so hard in my life. No wonder Germans lean toward depressive personalities.

Even way back then, the Spanish courses included a large dollop of anti-Americanism. They seemed obsessed with the idea that Americans chew gum. It showed up time after time. We were often depicted as overdressed, loud, arrogant, and spent too much money. Sounded like they took lessons in anti-Yankeeism from the French. It's much worse today.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, That's interesting. She's probably right. Chinese and English are the future, though I would assume Spanish is probably almost a requirement in California by now?

AndrewPrice said...

DUQ, I think that's right. The Tea Party really has encapsulated the American spirit better than either of the main parties ever did. I think that's because they come from both a wide cross section of Americans and they are primarily based on common sense approaches -- a American way of thinking.

AndrewPrice said...

Ed, I think what you are seeing (outside of political groups like La Rasa) is the problem with having too many immigrants in one place at one time, combined with the desire of Democrats to make it as easy as possible for them never to become Americans. Some people will take the easy route at that point and say "why should I bother if it doesn't matter." But over time, those people will see everyone around them move up the ladder and they'll realize it is a mistake not to integrate.

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, Yeah, you live in a bubble. There are people in the rest of the world who continue to believe the garbage you see every day, but they are few and far between once you get into the real world where performance matters.

rlaWTX said...

My biggest problem was that I had not had any English grammar since 9th grade (tested out of Freshman Comp & my HS Lit teachers avoided grammar). so all of my grammar knowledge was in Spanish. As we were learning German, I would have to figure it out in Spanish, translate to English, and then get it into German. Seriously the long way around. I can count to 10 and say:
Ich weis ist nicht.

Of course, I have since lost most of my Spanish too...

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX and Lawhawk, I thought about taking Spanish, but never did. Instead, I took German because I already spoke it pretty well -- mother is German. In college I also took a year of Russian, which was REALLY hard because the whole alphabet is different. After that, I took Lawyer. Lawyer is easy to pronounce, but it's hard to understand -- too much nonsense. ;)

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, The one thing I've never mastered in German is the articles -- der, die, das. It just makes no sense to me and my brain sees it as a waste of time to remember so it refuses to remember those.

T-Rav said...

rla, as long as you're still holding up. :-) Unfortunately, the bigger the university, the worse it gets--for example, the "University of"s that do a lot of research are generally much more skewed to the left than the smaller state schools where I got my B.A. See, I didn't learn crap like "Orientalism" or "neo-Marxist theory" there (I still don't know what the latter is), I just learned straight-up facts for the most part. Here it's a much different story; and as I mentioned once or twice, now the other grad students are trying to unionize and start collective bargaining with the Department, which will not end well AT ALL. I wonder if some of the older professors realize this is what happens when you teach identity politics and redistribution of wealth to an entire generation.

I have several years of German under my belt, and it's a tricky language. On the one hand, so much of it is close enough to English (they're related languages, after all) that you can kinda sorta pick your way through some of the simpler statements. On the other, they have such a habit of giving words eight or nine prefixes and suffixes that you always need a dictionary at hand. But at least it's basically the same alphabets, which is more than I can say for the Slavic languages.

T-Rav said...

Andrew, the articles aren't supposed to make any sense. There literally are no rules for their use, except if you put "-chen" or "-lein" on the end of a word, that automatically makes it neuter and then you go with "das." It's confusing, but no more so than a lot of other European languages (and considerably less so, at any rate, than Russian).

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, I think the very concept is insane. How can a table or bucket be masculine or feminine or neuter? What exactly is going on at these factories?!

rlaWTX said...

LOL, Andrew! That's what I used to wonder in Spanish!
I had a creeeeepy college Spanish prof that liked talking about the "seeeeexxxxxxxx" of words - talk about stomach turning!

T-Rav, I was pretty lucky. My undergrad history profs were generally too busy teaching history to get into that crap (even in my Latin America class!). And my Poli Sci profs made no bones about their leanings but were straight with answers and allowed alternate views. (at a small WTX state school)
Grad school isn't bad either... the students are leftier than the profs so far... Rebellion against the conservatism of the area, I guess. (at another small WTX state school)

AndrewPrice said...

rlaWTX, Sounds like a great teacher! LOL! My language teachers were a mixed bag. Some stunk. But the Russian teacher was definitely the best because he was an Air Force officer who had spent years in Moscow at the embassy and he not only knew his stuff, he could teach it too.

T-Rav said...

My Lord, Andrew!! You know this grammar structure is like a thousand years old, right? Are we going to call the whole Latin family of languages and most of the Germanic ones stupid now? Well, actually I could see that...wait, getting off track here. You uncouth, unlearn-ed... ;-)

rlaWTX said...

LOL, T-Rav!

AndrewPrice said...

T-Rav, There's a reason Latin is a dead language. ;)

T-Rav said...

rla, that's good. Again, as I say, the big-name universities are worse, and you're probably just as well off getting your graduate education at a state school. Substantively, there's probably nothing you can learn here that you couldn't learn there.

To give you an indication of my undergrad school in Missouri, our Latin-American professor occasionally promised the students that when or if Castro finally kicked the bucket, he'd give them all A's for the class. (He's retired now, so I don't know if he would have followed through on this or not.)

CrispyRice said...

I know I'm a day late here, but...

I heard on one of the radio shows the other day that Mexico is having quite a problem with the number of people returning from the USA. (No jobs here, so they are returning to Mexico in droves.) The Mexican gov't is upset because (1) they don't have jobs and now have to support these people and (2) apparently their schools are suddenly overcrowded with -- get this -- kids who don't speak Spanish! They don't know what to do with them! Welcome to our world...

And also, re German. The article do actually have historical reasons for existing. Long ago, Old High German had different classifications for nouns based on how the nouns themselves declined. (Much like Russian still does.) That came from an even older language. The gender is a hold-over from that. So sayeth the person with a graduate degree in German Language.

AndrewPrice said...

Crispy, I'd heard that too, that Mexico is having a problem with this influx of returning immigrants.

That's interesting about the German, but I much prefer the English version. :)

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