Sunday, August 23, 2009

Polling: Why ObamaCare Is Failing

By now you’ve all seen the chart showing Obama’s approval rating rolling down the hill like Sisyphus’s rock. If not, look to the right. You’ve probably also heard that Republicans lead Democrats by 5% in the generic ballot. A big part of this seems to be that ObamaCare has become political poison. Taking a look at some of the polling data tells us why. . .

For starters, few Americans think the plan will work. Sixty-one percent of Americas state that the goal of health care reform should be to control health care costs. But only 23% of Americans think ObamaCare will control health care costs. Indeed, 53% of Americans expect that it will lead to higher costs (18% think it will have no effect at all).

Americans also aren’t happy with paying for this reform. Fifty-four percent of Americans say that they would rather see tax cuts for the middle class than new spending on health care. BUT, despite promises that the middle class would not be taxed to make this happen, 78% of Americans believe that taxes will be raised on the middle class to cover the costs of health care reform.

Further, Nancy Pelosi’s attempts to demonize insurance companies have fallen on deaf ears: Americans “fear” the government more than they fear private insurance companies by a margin of 51% to 41%.

In fact, now that Americans have been asked to compare the quality of the care they receive against the alternatives being offered, 74% of Americans now rate the quality of the care they receive as good or excellent. Only 7% rate their own care as poor. And this good will has carried over to the entire system, with 48% of Americans now rating the U.S. health care system as good or excellent, up 13 points from two months ago and 19 points from last year. And this number is even higher when you exclude Democrats (see the chart below for party affiliation break downs).

So how is all of this translating into support (or lack thereof) for ObamaCare? Only 35% of Americans say that it would be better to pass the current version of ObamaCare than it would be to do nothing.

Finally, click on the chart below, which shows that these numbers are much more dramatic when you separate out the Democrats. Interestingly, Republicans and unaffiliated voters seem rather like minded on these issues, and once again, the Democrats are the outliers.



18 comments:

Joel Farnham said...

The American People know they are being conned. What I would like to know is, what happens if the Democrats actually vote ObamaCare in?

The Democrats have the majorities in both Houses. Will the American People settle for this brazen grab of power?

Writer X said...

What's also scary is that 35% of those polled would settle for Obamacon rather than demand something better. While that's not a super-majority number, it's still high. Why wouldn't a person want the best, especially when it comes to health care. I don't get it.

StanH said...

It looks like Barry is trending quickly down, …yeah! This guy is exactly what I thought he would be left of Jimmy Carter and this countries inherent conservatism is showing, much to our barking moonbats chagrin, cool. Caution everyone I saw the Maverick (McCain) talking bipartisan negotiation and praising Ted Kennedy, “danger will Robinson,” nothing good can come of that.

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, You're right. You can fool some of the people all of the time, but the majority of the people will see through you pretty quickly. If they pass this thing, I think they could kill their party for a generation.

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, You're right, it is scary how large a group of people out there are so sheepish. Having blind faith in your leaders is a very dangerous thing.

What amazes me even more is that only a fool would think this plan will be anything except a disaster that will need to be repealed almost immediately. So why aren't the Democrats even trying to do a better job?

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, That's the problem with a guy like McCain. He's going to see this thing headed for a well-deserved defeat, and he will want to jump in to be the hero.

I suspect that Obama will continue to fall until he hits about 43%. I think it's very difficult to fall below that. And I'm not sure he's going to recover because (1) he doesn't seem to have that kind of political skill, and (2) I think some of the damage he has done has been permanent in that he has shown himself to be something that his voters didn't think he was, and they won't forget that.

Joel Farnham said...

Andrew, Could it possibly be that some Democrats want him to fail?

AndrewPrice said...

Joel, I'm not sure about that. I think they know that their futures are tied to his. That said, I think they're nervous as heck, and you are seeing the cracks developing. I expect that many will start to run "away from him", just as many Republicans ran away from Bush.

Unknown said...

Andrew: Like clockwork, I saw another TV roundtable discussion where the liberal tried to soothe the American people by doing a mea culpa saying that they failed to explain Obamacare properly, not that it was just a lousy plan. How are they going to explain it? Three-quarters of them haven't read it, and the one-quarter who have don't dare call it what it is. Since calling us fascists and demagogues didn't work, now they'll try calling us ignorant. Just wait! Once they've enlightened our deficient minds, we'll love it!

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, That's par for the liberal course. When their plans fall apart, they run around claiming that it wasn't explained right. They will never admit it was the lousy plan.

MegaTroll said...

I hadn't seen the Obama poll numbers, and you just made my day! No wonder all the Obama stickers are vanishing off of cars.

You've put together some interesting numbers. It seems to me they failed up front by not highlighting how they would cut costs. Of course, that's because they don't cut costs.

AndrewPrice said...

Mega, Glad to make your day! I think it's fascinating that Obama's numbers are heading down in such an obvious slope. If he were a stock, I'd be pretty comfortable selling him short.

HamiltonsGhost said...

Andrew Price: I love watching Obama's popularity sliding down that razor graph. Eventually all he will have left is the hardcore Democratic traditional "always a Democrat" base (even the far left side of the party is abandoning him). The Republicans should have a great 2010 if this keeps up. Nobama.

Pittsburgh Enigma said...

Despite bad polling, how possible is it that Democrats will ram through Obamacare anyway? I'm just looking for opinions, of course. We've only got one messiah, after all. :-D

AndrewPrice said...

Hamilton, I suspect that the left could become his biggest problem. They are going to make a lot of noise and he's going to need to satisfy them. But they won't be satisfied with half measures, the further left he moves, the more upset the Blue Dogs (and the voters) will be.

AndrewPrice said...

Pitts, I think the odds of them ramming through anything that looks like the current bill are very, very low. They will not act unless they get real Republican support for fear of getting crushed by the voters. I think they will eventually pass some form of expansion of Medicaid (for way too much money), with low Republican support.

Unknown said...

Pittsburgh Enigma: Since I haven't checked with Andrew on his opinion, it should be fun to see if we agree on the likelihood. I'm guessing the chances are extremely slim. They have the votes (although they might need to wheel Byrd and Kennedy in for a vote). But that's only numerical, not real. Too many Democrats who might vote for the bill with "bipartisan support" that they could hide behind do not have the stones to do it when there's nobody else to blame. And I think there are enough Democrats who want reform, but not socialized medicine, who will take a principled stand against any bill that resembles Obama's "road to single-payer" bill. Tentative ruling: Possible, but not likely.

Cronickain said...

Answer: Because Communism is evil!

Green Czar is a communist.. Most of Obama's staff are communists. Wake up and smell the Red Dawn people!

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